Betting against the Oakland Raiders, especially in the rare times they’re favored, has been one of the best bets in the NFL over the last seven seasons.
Since 2006, the Raiders are 4-17-1 (19.0 percent) against the spread as favorites. That’s not good. Oakland has been favored on the road just once over the last seven seasons and just four times at home.
With this season’s difficult schedule, don’t expect the Raiders to play the role of the favorite often. Their road slate is brutal - at Indianapolis, at Denver, at Kansas City, at NY Giants, at Houston, at Dallas, and at San Diego.
The Chiefs aren’t much better, going 9-20-1 (31.0 percent) against the spread as favorites. There are eight teams, including the Chiefs and Raiders, who, when favored, failed to cover the spread less than 40 percent of the time (see complete list below).
While those teams struggled to live up to expectations, these three teams excelled in the role of favorite (ATS records as favorites since 2007):
Green Bay Packers (48-31-2 ATS): The Packers are the only team to cover the spread in better than 60 percent of their games when favored. It’s not a coincidence that Aaron Rodgers took over as the Packers' full-time starting quarterback in 2008.
Atlanta Falcons (36-27-3 ATS): The Falcons have been consistent as favorites both on the road (13-9-1 ATS) and at home (23-18-2 ATS) in the Georgia Dome. With an upgrade to running back in Steven Jackson, and Matt Ryan emerging as a top-tier QB, the Falcons will have plenty of chances to keep up this trend as favorites this season.
San Francisco 49ers (29-22-3 ATS): The Niners have been deadly as a home favorite, going 22-12-3 against the spread the past seven seasons.