The best teams in the NFL win week after week. But, we can't all be the Chiefs.
What defines the next tier of teams is how they recover after a loss. And, some squads are just better at bouncing back than others. Here's a breakdown of the best bounce-back NFL teams straight up and on the spread — and one sneaky little OVER betting trend that's been surprisingly profitable after losses:
Top Straight Up Squads After A Loss
| Team | Record After Loss | SU Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 16-13 | +$829.76 |
| Browns | 23-13 | +$639.46 |
| Chiefs | 13-2 | +$555.28 |
| Buccaneers | 17-2 | +$443.18 |
| Cowboys | 19-11 | +$375.02 |
Mike Tomlin is one hell of a coach. The Steelers haven't been particularly talented in the last few seasons, but it's Tomlin's coaching that takes them to the playoffs.
Pittsburgh's 42-29-1 record of the last five years is solid, no doubt, but it's Pittsburgh's ability to rebound that's allowed Tomlin to lead pretty mediocre teams to winning records every single year. The books count Tomlin's lads out, but they keep winning, leading to over eight units of SU profit following losses since 2019.
This trend isn't going anywhere either. Just look at Pittsburgh's rebounds this year:
- Week 1: 30-7 loss to 49ers — W2: 26-22 win over Browns as +110 dogs
- Week 4: 30-6 loss to Texans — W5: 17-10 win over Steelers as +158 dogs
Another surprising post-loss juggernaut in recent seasons is the Browns. Cleveland's got plenty of losses in the last five seasons (39 to be exact) but they win at a 58.9% clip the next week.
The Commanders Stay Down
One team you'd be smart to avoid coming off a loss is the Washington Commanders. They're 13-22-2 after Ls in the last five years for a league-worst -$1022.12 profit on $100 straight up bets.
With Washington's losses regularly turning into losing streaks over the last five years, it's no surprise long-time Commanders players like Jonathan Allen are down bad.
Jonathan Allen is not happy after Commanders loss. "They whupped our ass, plain and simple." pic.twitter.com/7BaGsfkDWg
— JP Finlay (@JPFinlayNBCS) October 22, 2023
Top Against The Spread Squads After A Loss
| Team | ATS Record After Loss | ATS Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Packers | 18-10 | +$630.31 |
| Ravens | 18-10-2 | +$628.48 |
| Steelers | 18-11-1 | +$541.09 |
| Rams | 19-12-1 | +$514.83 |
| 49ers | 18-12-1 | +$454.56 |
The Steelers are still up there on the spread after a loss, but it's actually the Ravens and Packers that perform best for spread betters coming off a loss. Both teams have posted six units of profit ATS after Ls over the last few years.
The Packers' success may be more more tied to Aaron Rodgers than the current core, though, as Green Bay is just 1-2 ATS following losses this season with Jordan Love at QB.
Grab A Sneaky Vikings OVER After A Loss
Just when you count out Kirk Cousins, he rises from the ashes.
The Vikings are averaging just 21.6 points per game this season. But, after a loss over the last five years, that mark jumps all the way up to 27.38.
It may not result in wins or spread coverages, but boy does it help the OVER. Minnesota is 22-10 on the OVER in the last five seasons after an L, resulting in 10 units of profit.
The Vikings OVER after a loss is actually the most profitable bounce-back trend in the league over the last five years - even better than fading the Commanders or riding Mike Tomlin's Steelers. So, sit back and wait for the next Minnesota L and then hope on the points the next week.
