"The King of Rio" returns to his namesake at UFC 301, where Jose Aldo is a +130 underdog vs Jonathan Martinez, the -160 favorite.
The Aldo vs Martinez brawl in Brazil on May 4 will serve as the co-main event for a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Steven Erceg in the main event.
Aldo vs Martinez Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jose Aldo | +130 |
| Jonathan Martinez | -160 |
Odds as of April 29
Our odds calculator suggests Martinez's -160 odds award him a 61.54% implied chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $162.50. At +130, Aldo gets a 43.48% implied chance, and a $100 bet on him pays out $230.
How Aldo Wins At UFC 301
On home soil, Aldo has a strong outlook. The 37-year-old might not be super spry after time off, but his fundamentals arm him with a few ways to win. For starters, he owns the best takedown defense in UFC history, though that probably won't be a factor in Saturday's brawl vs Martinez.
Aldo is very strong and defensive. He attacks with leg kicks and keeps a high guard. I think of him like a statue, unbreakable but static. While Martinez is a dynamic opponent, the Brazilian's experience, poise, and timely strikes can win him this fight.
If you're betting Aldo, shop around for the best underdog odds and lay him straight up.
How Martinez Wins at UFC 301
Martinez is known for punishing leg kicks, but he'll need to alter his strategy against Aldo's iron shins. It all starts with feints to get the Brazilian moving. Aldo's cardio is a little questionable later in fights. If Martinez leverages that advantage by teeing up flashy strikes, he could overwhelm his opponent come Round 3.
Six of Aldo's last seven UFC fights have gone the distance. I'd wager on Martinez winning a 15-minute decision.
Aldo vs Martinez Picks
I'm not just being romantic when I say Aldo is a live underdog in this fight. He'll have the home crowd on his side, and he's worth a unit or two in a co-main bout that could save an otherwise pedestrian UFC 301 card.
As a rounds prop, you can also bet this fight to go the distance.
