Alvarez vs Munguia Odds & Picks: Has Canelo Met His Match?

Saul "Canelo" Alvarez will be a 525 favorite when he takes on Jaime Munguia (+380 underdog) in a bout for the undisputed super middleweight title on May 4.

This Cinco de Mayo brawl takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. 

Alvarez is no stranger to steep chalk. His -525 status is typical. The last time Alvarez faced odds shorter than -525 was in 2020 when the Mexican bested Callum Smith as a -450 favorite.

Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia Odds

Canelo Alvarez-525
Jaime Munguia+380

Odds as of May 4

Using our odds calculator, Alvarez's -525 favorite status means a $100 bet on him pays out $119.05. The same bet $100 bet on Munguia pays out $480.

How Alvarez Wins

At 33 years old, Canelo has a wealth of experience, which makes him such a dominant champion. Alvarez is an intelligent fighter, happy to stay patient for a few rounds as he feels out his opponent's methods. He's also very adaptable, too, meaning he won't always win via fancy footwork or heavy counters. 

Canelo will follow the same script on May 4 vs Munguia. Watch for Alvarez to elude an early storm from the challenger and then wear him out in the later rounds. Munguia is a force in the squared circle, but he's not any more terrifying than any of Canelo's previous opponents.

How Munguia Wins

Munguia is always game for a dogfight. The 27-year-old throws caution to the wind and bangs with all his might. I give him big respect for that, but is it the best strategy against a legend like Alvarez? I'm not sure. 

Munguia is fresh and explosive, but I envision him running into trouble if he starts a war with Canelo. The challenger is extremely vulnerable when he guns for the finish, often obsessing over hurting his opponent and abandoning his self-protection.

Canelo is one of the best defenders and counterpunchers we've ever seen. In the end, those qualities will make it hard for Munguia to win.

Alvarez vs Munguia Pick

We can tailor a bet on Canelo using what we know about Munguia's reckless abandon in the pocket. Munguia is dangerous, but he lacks experience.

Canelo's last four bouts have gone the distance, but I love the chances (and the value) of a knockout victory on May 4.

Pick: Canelo by KO/TKO/DQ (+200)

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