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NFL Free Pick: Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction Machine NFL Free Pick: Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars (TEN -7.5, O/U 53)

The Titans head to Jacksonville hoping to rebound from an embarrassing loss to the Browns in which their defense surrendered 38 points in the first 30 minutes. As a result, Derrick Henry saw a season-low 15 rush attempts and Ryan Tannehill was forced to play catch-up. Henry should be in line for his typical workload of 25-plus touches against the Jags as Tennessee is projected to play with a lead in this division rematch, currently listed as a 7.5-point favorite.

Jacksonville has lost 11 straight after its Week 1 upset of the Colts but has at least shown some fight in recent losses. Four of the Jaguars’ past five defeats have come by five points or less, and the offense has posted 49 points in Mike Glennon’s two starts under center. This is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair despite it being a rematch of two division foes, with a current total of 53 points.

Our NFL model agrees there will be plenty of scoring in this matchup, projecting a final score of 35.4-21.6 in favor of the Titans. With 57 combined points projected and a total of 53, we have a sizable edge on the OVER in this AFC South matchup. Our model suggests a $110 wager on OVER 53 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NFL model is 194-149 ATS (56.6%) and 184-166 (52.6%) on O/Us for +32.76 units, or $3,276 of profit since the start of the 2019 season. Head over to predictionmachine.com/pricing and sign up to receive every NFL prediction.

Why will the total go OVER?

  • Tennessee’s offense should roll against a Jacksonville defense that’s one of the worst in the NFL. The Jaguars are dead last in yards allowed per play (6.2) and yards allowed per pass attempt (8.0). Despite being viewed as strictly a rushing powerhouse, the Titans sport the sixth-best yards per pass attempt (7.5) in the league. Their rushing attack is more than capable as well, averaging 4.8 yards per rush (6th). Derrick Henry boasts a 55.4 percent success rate on his 2020 rush attempts, which is five percentage points higher than league average (Sharp Football Stats).
  • Jacksonville should be able to score as well thanks to Tennessee’s anemic defense. The Titans rank 31st in pressure rate (17.2%), allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt (20th) and have allowed 27.2 points per game (25th).
  • The Titans have the second-worst red-zone defense in the league. They’ve allowed opponents to score touchdowns on 72.9 percent of their opportunities, while Jacksonville has been above average in that department, turning 61.1 percent of red-zone trips into six points (11th). The Titans have excelled at putting up touchdowns in the red zone as well, cashing in on 73.5 percent of their trips (4th). Scoring touchdowns in lieu of settling for field goals will be key for this game to surpass the high total.

How to bet the spread in Titans vs Jaguars:

Prediction Machine’s NFL model projects a final score of 35.4-21.6 in favor of the Titans. With a near 14-point margin of victory projected for Tennessee and the spread currently at 7.5 points, we have a solid edge on the visitors in this one. Our model suggests a $106 wager on TENNESSEE -7.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Need-to-know stats for Titans vs Jaguars:

  • 21/29, 270.9 yards, 1.74 TDs, 0.34 INTs - Our model is projecting little resistance for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans passing game. We’re projecting Tannehill to finish under 30 pass attempts, but we are expecting him to be hyper efficient with 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Corey Davis and AJ Brown project as his top targets this week, each coming in with five catches and 70-plus receiving yards in our projections. Tannehill has been great once again this season for Arthur Smith and this Titans offense, averaging a seventh-best 7.9 yards per pass attempt among starters with double-digit games played. His five interceptions are also the fewest among quarterbacks with 25 or more touchdown passes. Expect a clean and efficient outing from Tannehill in this one.
  • 20 rushes, 90.4 yards, 0.7 TDs, 4 catches, 37.3 yards, 0.1 TDs - James Robinson has been a revelation, turning in one of the best seasons in NFL history by an undrafted rookie running back. He leads the NFL with 79.4 percent of his team’s carries and has also earned a double-digit target share (11.7%), which ranks 11th among running backs with nine or more games played. We’re projecting him for 24 touches and 127.7 scrimmage yards against a Tennessee defense that’s surrendered the 13th-most total yards (134.2/game) and 15 total touchdowns (fifth-most) to opposing running backs.