Islam Makhachev proved why he was a -1200 favorite at UFC 311 by choking out late-notice challenger Renato Moicano in the first round of the main event. Islam, once again, reminded the UFC masses why he is the promotion's pound-for-pound champ.
After the fight, Dana White assured the media Arman Tsarukyan would not receive the next title shot after he pulled out of UFC 311 with a back injury. With that in mind, let's investigate the lightweight ranking to determine who Islam should fight next.
What's Next For Islam Makhachev After UFC 311?
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | -125 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | +150 |
| Max Holloway | +210 |
| Winner of Belal/Shavkat | +300 |
Speculative odds
Islam boasts victories over multiple top-10 opponents, including Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira and Dan Hooker. Let's assume Hooker is off the table, as he's scheduled to fight Justin Gaethje at UFC 313 as the co-main to Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev.
While MMA media has speculated about Islam's ambition to fight at welterweight, the champ himself has made no such vows, hence my long odds on him to fight the Belal/Shavkat winner.
The case for Islam vs Oliveira (-125)
Islam stole the belt from Oliveira in a definitive victory in October of 2022. These two were rebooked for October 2023, but Oliveira pulled out after suffering a cut in training. He's since fought twice, avenging his loss to Tsarukyan at UFC 300 with a respectable win over Michael Chandler at UFC 309.
Charles is a fan favorite and brings dynamic striking and aggressive offensive grappling to each of his fights. The UFC would have no qualms about booking Islam vs Charles 2, as fans would tune in. However, there's merit to the argument Charles might not stand a chance against Islam. Oliveira's height and slashing strikes might threaten Islam, but the Russian's top pressure makes him a brutal opponent for a bottom-game specialist like Oliveira.
In my eyes, Oliveira is favored for the next title shot, but I'd like to consider other possibilities.
The Case For Islam vs Tsarukyan 2 (+150)
While I understand the promotion's frustration with Arman after he ruined the UFC 311 main event, he should still get the next title shot. Depending on the severity of his injury, that may not happen anyway, but merit-wise, Arman deserves the next crack.
He's a tough stylistic matchup for Islam and his physicality and striking could pose new challenges for the champ. If I had the magic wand, I'd make this fight again for the October Abu Dhabi slate. We'll see where the UFC goes, but I'm strongly in favor of booking this rematch immediately.
The Case for Islam vs Holloway (+190)
This fight gets made because it's a fresh matchup and Holloway is a strong pay-per-view draw. That's it. In my mind, this wouldn't be a very competitive fight. Islam is a big lightweight, and Holloway recently lost by KO at featherweight. "Blessed" is a fierce competitor, but he'd be no match for Islam's relentless grappling.
I'd rather see Islam move up a weight class than fight Holloway at 155 pounds. If this fight came to be, I'd rush to the books and place multiple units on Makhachev by submission.
The Case for Islam Moving to Welterweight (+300)
I strongly believe Islam has at least one more title defense at 155 pounds. With Arman still lurking and Oliveira previously booked for a second title shot, there's no immediate reason to challenge for another division, especially with the WW title picture unclear.
Perhaps the timelines work out if Belal and Shavkat fight in April or May, but there are also plenty of deserving welterweights right now. The winner of Jack Della Maddalena and Leon Edwards could get a title crack, or Joaquin Buckley could do the Khalil Rountree and bring his exciting style to an early title shot.
Selfishly, I'd also like to see Makhachev stay at lightweight to tie Anderson Silva's record of 16 straight wins. 2026 sounds like a much better year for Islam to attempt champ-champ status.
