The UFC Fight Nights continue to roll on as this week’s card has a pivotal fight in the women’s strawweight division. In the main event, Mackenzie Dern takes on Marina Rodriguez with the Sportsbook likely to be about one fight away from a title shot.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez is this Saturday, October 9, at the UFC Apex Performance Center in Las Vegas. In Dern vs Rodriguez odds, the fifth-ranked Dern is favored over the sixth-ranked Rodriguez.
Dern has been on a tear recently, winning four straight bouts, three by submission. This stretch comes on the heels of her first professional defeat in October 2019.
Similarly, Rodriguez was saddled with her first defeat, a split decision to former champion Carla Esparza, in July of last year but has rebounded with back-to-back wins in 2021 heading into this fight.
Dern vs Rodriguez Odds
Online sportsbook [Sportsbook not available for your region] has released the Dern vs Rodriguez odds with Mackenzie listed as the -175 favorite and Marina the +145 underdog. The betting line for the main event means that you would have to wager $175 to profit $100 with a Dern victory, while a $100 winning bet on Rodriguez would net you $145.
Another way to examine the odds is using our sports betting calculator. There you can see that Dern’s -175 odds represent an implied win probability of 63.64 percent and Rodriguez’s +145 line offers an implied win probability of 40.82 percent.
If you’re looking for the biggest favorite on the card for a parlay piece, search no further than the heavyweight prelim bout with Alexandr Romanov (-700) favored over Jared Vanderaa (+450). Conversely, if you want more value, the tightest betting line of the night comes in the main event between Dern and Rodriguez.
Dern vs Rodriguez Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Women’s Strawweight – Mackenzie Dern (-175) vs Marina Rodriguez (+145)
- Welterweight – Randy Brown (-230) vs Jared Gooden (+185)
- Flyweight – Tim Elliott (+160) vs Matheus Nicolau (-200)
- Women’s Flyweight – Sabina Mazo (-185) vs Mariya Agapova (+150)
- Middleweight – Phil Hawes (-335) vs Deron Winn (+255)
- Prelims
- Bantamweight – Chris Gutierrez (-265) vs Felipe Colares (+210)
- Heavyweight – Alexandr Romanov (-700) vs Jared Vanderaa (+450)
- Featherweight – Charles Rosa (+160) vs Damon Jackson (-200)
- Lightweight – Steve Garcia (-310) vs Charlie Ontiveros (+240)
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- Date/Time: October 9, 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | -175 |
| Marina Rodriguez | +145 |
Marina Rodriguez (+145) is looking for her first-ever three-fight winning streak in the UFC, after having a two-fight streak ended with a draw back in 2019. As for Mackenzie Dern (-175), her ongoing four-fight win streak is the longest in the Octagon for her; she had won two in a row before her first defeat.
- It has been a little bit of all-or-nothing for Dern in the Octagon with five first-round submission finishes and three bouts that went the distance. She is 11-1 overall with seven submissions on her record; her lone defeat came by decision.
- Evident in her record, Dern utilizes her ju-jitsu skills and exceptional submissions as her main weapon of attack. Her last two submission victories came courtesy of armbars but she also has wins via a kneebar and three rear-naked chokes.
- Of course, with no knockouts on her record, her striking is underdeveloped. She used to be a slower striker, either loading up for big shots or just throwing punches out as a distraction before going for a takedown.
- That said, in her last outing against Nina Nunes, her striking looked improved as she mixed in leg kicks while throwing big combinations. Mackenzie will still sometimes swing wildly as she moves forward without the best technique, but if she’s able to close the distance into grappling, the fight changes dramatically.
- Dern’s last three fights were Randa Markos (win – submission), Virna Jandiroba (win – unanimous decision) and Nina Nunes (win – submission).
- While Rodriguez has just one loss on her record, she also has a pair of majority draws bringing her UFC record to 2-1-2. Overall, she’s 14-1-2 with six knockout wins and one submission victory as well.
- On the feet, Marina causes a lot of problems for opponents as she has a high output of 4.89 significant strikes per minute and has twice surpassed 100 significant strikes in a fight. Defensively she’s sound as well, absorbing just 3.24 significant strikes per minute.
- Rodriguez has great counters the second her opponents enter her range. At distance, she has good kicks that she will have to set up in this fight or she will be taken down.
- She has had some issues in the takedown department – she was brought down multiple times in the three fights that she didn’t win and she stuffs only 62 percent of takedown attempts.
- Rodriguez’s last three fights were Carla Esparza (loss – split decision), Amanda Ribas (win – knockout) and Michelle Waterson (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Marina Rodriguez (+145) via decision
Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Randy Brown | -230 |
| Jared Gooden | +185 |
Two fighters looking for back-to-back wins face off in the co-main event. Jared “Nite Train” Gooden (+185) dropped his first two bouts in the UFC but picked up his first win in July with a first-round knockout. Meanwhile, Randy “Rudeboy” Brown (-230) had his two-fight winning streak snapped in mid-2020 but returned to the win column in April of this year.
- Brown has struggled to find his footing in the UFC, having not had a streak of more than two wins in a row over 11 fights. He carries a 13-4 record with 11 stoppages (six knockouts, five submissions) and has been knocked out twice and submitted once.
- While Rudeboy does average just shy of one takedown per 15 minutes, he definitely prefers to keep the fight standing. He averages 3.72 significant strikes per minute, absorbing only 2.79. He owes much of his great defense to his size – he’s big and long for the welterweight division at six-foot-three with a 78-inch reach.
- He has a very fast, snappy jab and uses it well to set up his other strikes. He tends to have a wide stance, which allows him to plant on his punches but leaves him vulnerable to leg kicks. Brown also leaves Sportsbooks for counters when he throws as he drops his rear hand.
- Brown’s last three fights were Warlley Alves (win – submission), Vicente Luque (loss – knockout) and Alex Oliveira (win – submission).
- Gooden had a rough start to his UFC career with tough outings vs Alan Jouban and Abubakar Nurmagomedov before earning his first win in the Octagon. His record stands at 18-6 with one knockout loss and 14 stoppage victories (eight knockouts, six submissions).
- Nite Train has a great lead jab and a lengthy one at that (77 inches, one less than Brown). He utilizes the jab frequently and has some good pop on it. As a fighter, he’s quite aggressive and has good conditioning to go along with his high pace.
- While Gooden is a big threat on the feet with that powerful jab, he is also a brown belt in ju-jitsu and has landed both of his takedown attempts in the UFC, leading to a 100 percent takedown percentage.
- Gooden’s last three fights were Alan Jouban (loss – unanimous decision), Abubakar Nurmagomedov (loss – unanimous decision) and Niklas Stolze (win – knockout).
Prediction: Randy Brown (-230) via decision
Tim Elliott vs Matheus Nicolau Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | +160 |
| Matheus Nicolau | -200 |
Tim Elliott (+160) has a crack at winning three fights in a row for the first time in over five years when he walks to the cage on Saturday. Looking to prevent that from happening and in turn extend his own three-fight winning streak is Matheus Nicolau (-200).
- Elliott had a rough stretch in late 2019 into 2020, dropping three in a row before winning his last two bouts. He carries a 17-11-1 record and six of his wins have been submissions, but five of his losses have come in the same fashion.
- Tim is a bit of an awkward fighter on the feet with odd footwork while throwing loopy punches from the southpaw stance. Perhaps the main reason for his unique style is that he doesn’t want the fight on the feet but rather on the ground.
- He averages 4.01 takedowns per 15 minutes and his great conditioning allows him to consistently search for them. On the floor, he’s aggressive in searching for a submission while maintaining control.
- Elliott’s last three fights were Brandon Royval (loss – submission), Ryan Benoit (win – unanimous decision) and Jordan Espinosa (win – unanimous decision).
- Nicolau was cut from the UFC after one loss in 2018 but returned in March to earn a victory. He walks to the Octagon with a 16-2-1 record with both of his defeats coming by knockout. Nine of his wins have been finishes (four knockouts, five submissions).
- A willing participant to get into a grappling exchange, Nicolau averages 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes and has stuffed 100 percent of takedown attempts against.
- He doesn’t work solely in the grappling sphere as he has a solid jab and really sharp kicks on the feet. He does have a tendency to overextend a bit on his punches but often follows up with a combination to avoid getting countered.
- Nicolau’s last three fights were Alan Gabriel dos Santos (win – submission), Felipe Efrain (win – unanimous decision) and Manel Kape (win – split decision).
Prediction: Matheus Nicolau (-200) via submission
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Sabina Mazo vs Mariya Agapova Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sabina Mazo | -185 |
| Mariya Agapova | +150 |
On the heels of a loss as a -1400 favorite, Mariya Agapova (+150) has seen her odds plummet in her return to the cage but is hoping for a better outcome. Also coming off a defeat in her last appearance is Sabina “Colombian Queen” Mazo (-185), who looks to get back to the winning ways she enjoyed prior to the loss.
- Mazo dropped her UFC debut for the first loss of her professional career and just tasted defeat for the second time back in February. Overall, she’s 9-2 with six decision wins; her two losses came in the same manner.
- The Colombian Queen is a long flyweight with a 70-inch reach and her stature complements her aggressiveness. She averages 6.56 significant strikes per minute and has surpassed 100 significant strikes in three of her five UFC bouts.
- All that said, she does like room to work, as Justine Kish created some issues by swarming Mazo. Sabina not only has a long reach but also long legs and she kicks frequently at distance, but again she needs room to throw those kicks.
- Mazo’s last three fights were J.J. Aldrich (win – split decision), Justine Kish (win – submission) and Alexis Davis (loss – unanimous decision).
- Agapova lost her Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series appearance in 2019 but got her UFC chance following two Invicta wins. She’s now 9-2 with seven stoppage victories (three knockouts, four submissions), while one of her losses was a knockout.
- The southpaw is also long, with a 68-inch reach. She’s an aggressive fighter, essentially running at her foes with a flurry of strikes, but she will also secure a body lock and go for a takedown. She averages 1.23 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- While all-out aggression can be beneficial if you can damage your opponent, conditioning comes into the conversation if you can’t. It was this factor that led to her loss in August – she got tired heading into the second round, the defense lapsed and she got knocked out.
- Agapova’s last three fights were Marilia Santos (win – knockout), Hannah Cifers (win – submission) and Shana Dobson (loss – knockout).
Prediction: Sabina Mazo (-185) via knockout
Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Phil Hawes | -335 |
| Deron Winn | +255 |
When Phil “Megatron” Hawes (-335) walks to the Octagon on Saturday, he does so with a lengthy seven-fight winning streak. Hoping to end that streak and get on one of his own is Deron Winn (+255), who is searching for back-to-back wins for the first time in his UFC career.
- Hawes took his losing experience in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in stride, going undefeated since that 2017 setback. He holds an 11-2 record with nine stoppage wins, including seven knockouts. Both of his losses have been finishes, one by knockout and one by submission.
- Although Megatron has a pile of knockout wins on his record, he also notches 2.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, securing six over his last two bouts. Additionally, he has a 100 percent takedown defense, which will surely be tested in this fight, but having been a D-I college wrestler, he’ll likely be able to maintain this fight on the feet.
- He’s an intimidating figure in the cage, constantly backing his opponents up, but he’s patient in letting his hands fly, not rushing into danger but rather waiting for his foes to be against the cage and then throwing a flurry of strikes with big power.
- Hawes’s last three fights were Jacob Malkoun (win – knockout), Nassourdine Imavov (win – majority decision) and Kyle Daukaus (win – unanimous decision).
- It took until Winn’s seventh professional fight, which came in the UFC, for him to taste his first defeat. His record is 7-2 with four knockout wins and one submission loss.
- Standing five-foot-six with a 70-inch reach, Deron is at a height and reach disadvantage against nearly everyone in the middleweight division. For perspective, Hawes stands six inches taller and has a seven-inch advantage in reach.
- However, being lower to the ground helps him in his area of expertise, wrestling. Winn, who came close to qualifying for the American Olympic wrestling team, averages 4.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, securing 12 in his last outing. On the feet, he throws big overhand strikes or rushes for a double leg when his foes throw a kick.
- Winn’s last three fights were Darren Stewart (loss – split decision), Gerald Meerschaert (loss – submission) and Antonio Arroyo (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Phil Hawes (-335) via knockout
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Rodriguez Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Women’s Strawweight – Marina Rodriguez | +145 |
| Welterweight – Randy Brown | -230 |
| Flyweight – Matheus Nicolau | -200 |
| Women’s Flyweight – Sabina Mazo | -185 |
| Middleweight – Phil Hawes | -335 |
