Paddy Pimblett gets his biggest fight yet, sharing the co-main spotlight with Michael Chandler at UFC 314 on April 12 in Miami. Chandler is the narrow -125 favorite at FanDuel vs Pimblet (+100 underdog) in this five-round lightweight fight.
Many fight fans believe Pimblett has the stuff to become a future UFC champion. He'll have his mettle tested in his first UFC five-rounder against Chandler, who demonstrated a strange combo of patience and recklessness in his recent decision loss to Charles Oliveira.
Chandler vs Pimblett Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | -125 |
| Paddy Pimblett | +100 |
Odds as of Feb. 20 at FanDuel
Using our odds calculator, we can determine Chandler's -125 odds suggest a 55.56% chance of winning, and a $100 bet pays out $180. Pimblett's +100 underdog status gives him a 50% chance of winning, with a $100 bet paying out $200.
How To Bet Pimblett
Pimblett is primarily a grappler with gradually improved striking. He's now on a six-fight UFC win streak with four stoppage wins during that span, including a nasty first-round submission over Bobby Green in England last summer. Paddy also has solid five-round experience from his days as a Cage Warriors champion, so I won't give Chandler an edge on that front.
I have some small concerns with Pimblett. He leaves his chin in the air at times and can be prone to inactivity on the feet. Chandler would love to expose those vulnerabilities. But when I analyze how Pimblett matches up with 2025 Chandler, I'm picking the Brit to win.
If Chandler isn't willing to go for broke in Round 1 (maybe he will this time), then Pimblett should have plenty of time to institute a grappling-heavy gameplan. Oliveira got Chandler down early and often at UFC 309, wrapping up the fight with nearly 15 full minutes of control time. Chandler resisted Oliveira's submission attempts, but I also felt like the Brazilian didn't give it his all in those moments either, gladly accepting the control victory.
If Pimblett finds himself in those spots vs Chandler, he'll put the squeeze on. Beyond the stylistic pinpoints of this fight, the underdog odds have me favoring Pimblett. He's a good bet for me at +100, and I'll likely double down come Fight Night with a bet on Pimblett to win inside the distance.
How To Bet Chandler
Chandler needs a big boom, to put it in elementary terms. I cannot properly express my disappointment in his performance vs Oliveira at UFC 309, but I'm not sure why Chandler, now 38, thought a more balanced approach could help him outlast a superstar like Charles. Where was the power-punching, body-kicking madman from previous fights?
If you look at Chandler's UFC career, he has tangled with some real animals (Gaethje, Poirier, Oliveira x2) but only boasts wins over Tony Ferguson and a pre-resurgence Dan Hooker. I don't want to crap on Chandler's accomplishments, but his legacy lies in bringing the heat and dying on his sword, not narrowly edging out victories. "Iron" Mike is no longer a title contender, especially with Ilia Topuria coming to lightweight.
I will not lay Chandler as the favorite. If you bet him, do so by knockout or alongside an UNDER 2.5 rounds parlay.
Chandler vs Pimblett Betting Pick
I will take Pimblett ML at +100. If the odds move in his favor, I will consider a Pimblett ITD play.
