Bogdan Guskov vs Jan Blachowicz Odds & Picks - UFC 323

Jan Blachowicz is a -142 favorite, and Bogdan Guskov enters as a +112 underdog ahead of their three-round light heavyweight clash at UFC 323 on December 6 in Las Vegas.

Blachowicz brings experience, top-game pressure, and measured kickboxing, while Guskov arrives riding a violent surge built on speed, power, and improved composure. Given where both men sit in their respective trajectories, the odds feel wide, especially with Guskov entering his physical prime as Blachowicz pushes deeper into his 40s.

Blachowicz vs Guskov Betting Odds

Blachowicz vs Guskov Odds
Fighter	Odds
Jan Blachowicz	-134
Bogdan Guskov	+110

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Blachowicz vs Guskov Betting Trends

Blachowicz is 1-3-1 in his last five bouts, with his volume and speed declining as he’s moved into his 40s. He has gone to three straight decisions.
Blachowicz's 13:11 average fight time is the ninth-longest in UFC history. He's had two 25-minute title fights in there, but I seriously doubt Jan, at this age, will have the acumen to finish the younger Guskov.
This is Blachowicz's first fight as a favorite since his 2021 title loss to Glover Texeira. He faced pick'em odds vs Alex Pereira in 2023, ultimately losing by split decision.

Blachowicz vs Guskov Prediction

This matchup hinges on pace and intent. If Blachowicz leans heavily on wrestling, he can absolutely bank rounds — his top control has historically frozen explosive strikers and drained their momentum. But his recent fights suggest a more measured, range-based striking approach, and that strategy invites real danger against a younger, faster puncher like Guskov.

Guskov’s improvements over his last four fights are the key shift in this matchup. He’s no longer a pure brawler. Guskov is fighting more and more as a composed power threat who pressures smartly, maintains tighter boxing, and carries finishing danger for all 15 minutes. His surge — spanning knockouts of Spann and Krylov and a late submission of Billy Elekana — shows he can create momentum from different phases, not just early bursts.

The concern for Guskov remains his defensive wrestling. Elekana took his back and scored takedowns, which is a red flag against a fighter with Blachowicz’s grappling pedigree. But unless Jan chooses to wrestle early and often, he will be stuck exchanging at a speed disadvantage against someone who throws straighter, sharper punches at this stage of their careers.

The line makes this even clearer. At -134, Blachowicz is being priced as if his form hasn’t dipped and his wrestling output hasn’t stalled. At +110, Guskov offers the better upside: youth, momentum, finishing ability, and a matchup that favors him if Blachowicz remains patient and kickboxing-heavy.