Pantoja vs Van Odds & Picks - UFC 323

Alexandre Pantoja is a -250 favorite, while Joshua Van enters as a +200 underdog ahead of their five-round flyweight title co-main event at UFC 323 on December 6.

This fight pits Pantoja’s battle-tested grappling against Van’s explosive youth and output. The champion’s composure meets the challenger’s chaos, and one mistake could swing everything.

Pantoja vs Van Betting Odds

Pantoja vs Van Odds
Fighter	Odds
Alexandre Pantoja	-250
Joshua Van	+200

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Pantoja vs Van Betting Trends

Van is the first-ever UFC fighter born in the 2000s to compete for a title.
This will be Pantoja's fifth straight title defense as a favorite. He was last an underdog at UFC 290, when he defeated Brandon Moreno to become flyweight champ.
This will be Van's fourth fight of 2025. He was unranked when the year began.

Pantoja vs Van Prediction

Van is the new wave of flyweight: hyperactive, fearless, and built on offense. His 8.86 strikes landed per minute at 56% accuracy prove his speed and volume can overwhelm almost anyone standing across from him. Yet those same traits leave him open. He absorbs over six significant strikes per minute, revealing that his aggression often trades safety for spectacle.

Pantoja fights with balance and patience. His 30-5 record is a product of experience and efficiency, not reckless exchanges. While his output (4.36 SLpM) trails Van’s, he makes up for it with precision in grappling transitions. Pantoja's 2.80 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.0 submissions per 15 show how seamlessly he turns pressure into control. Once he connects his hands, few opponents survive his top game.

The first two rounds will likely see Van charge forward, firing combinations and testing Pantoja’s guard. But the champion’s defense and positional awareness should allow him to weather that early surge. Pantoja will look for his spots, step inside Van’s shorter reach, and clinch against the cage. From there, his trips, body locks, and rear-naked choke setups become fight-ending threats. Over 25 minutes, the disparity in grappling volume is likely to determine the outcome.

Van’s power and pace make him dangerous early, but Pantoja’s composure, grappling edge, and submission instincts tilt the matchup strongly his way. Expect the veteran to turn Van’s aggression into opportunities for control and eventually a finish once the scramble pace slows.