Talbott vs Cejudo Odds & Picks - UFC 323

Payton Talbott is a -280 favorite, while Henry Cejudo enters as a +220 underdog ahead of their three-round bantamweight showcase at UFC 323 on December 6 in Las Vegas.

This fight mirrors a generational crossroads: Talbott’s length, pace, and pressure against Cejudo’s championship pedigree and Olympic wrestling base. One man is rising fast, while the other is fighting to prove the sport hasn’t passed him by.

Talbott vs Cejudo Betting Odds

Talbott vs Cejudo Odds
Fighter	Odds
Payton Talbott	-280
Henry Cejudo	+220

Want to read more on UFC 323 odds and picks? Check out the following previews:

Talbott vs Cejudo Betting Trends

Cejudo has never been finished at bantamweight and has only one stoppage loss in his entire career. This leads me toward a decision bet.
The betting market seemed bearish on Talbot after he lost as a -1600 favorite at UFC 311, hence his +160 status vs Felipe Lima last time around. Talbott looked great there, and we can expect him back in the public's good graces from now on. Talbott's odds have already moved from -265 to -290 during fight week.
Cejudo is 0-3 (3 decision losses) since returning from retirement.

Talbott vs Cejudo Prediction

Tall, dynamic, high volume, and constantly pressing forward, Talbott represents the new wave at 135 pounds. His offensive metrics tell the story — over six significant strikes landed per minute at roughly 54% accuracy — and his ability to switch stances and throw long, straight combinations makes him a nightmare at range.

But the real evolution has come defensively. After being out-grappled by Raoni Barcelos, Talbott returned more composed against Felipe Lima, stuffing first-layer shots, controlling the center, and winning rounds through steady pressure without exposing himself to counters.

Cejudo enters with the opposite skill profile. He throws a lower output but has sharper defense, excellent positioning, and a lifetime of wrestling. His 59% striking defense and 76% takedown defense reflect elite habits, even as age has chipped away at his speed. The issue for him is sustainability. Against Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili, and Song Yadong, Cejudo struggled to maintain the type of prolonged wrestling sequences that defined his championship run. His entries were slower, his chain wrestling less punishing, and his ability to win rounds through pressure diminished.

Over three rounds, the physical realities favor Talbott. He will control range with his jab, kicks, and long straight punches, forcing Cejudo to cross a dangerous distance every time he shoots. Cejudo should land takedowns early, but sustained control becomes harder as the fight progresses. Talbott’s size, youth, and pace tilt the optics of prolonged striking exchanges heavily in his favor, especially with judges increasingly valuing damage over brief moments of control.

Cejudo is still too durable and too defensively sound to be easily finished, but his recent performances indicate he now gets out-worked by larger, faster bantamweights. Talbott fits that prototype perfectly. Expect the veteran to make the fight competitive in spots, but Talbott’s pace, length, and consistent striking should win him rounds with clarity.