Taira vs Moreno Odds & Picks - UFC 323

Tatsuro Taira is a -132 favorite, and Brandon Moreno enters as a +104 underdog ahead of their three-round flyweight showcase at UFC 323 on December 6 in Las Vegas.

Taira’s youth, scrambling speed, and submission danger pose an interesting counter to Moreno’s championship experience, durability, and well-rounded game. The odds seem fair, as many assume Taira will threaten for the 125-pound belt very soon.

Taira vs Moreno Betting Odds

Taira vs Moreno Odds
Fighter	Odds
Tatsuro Taira	-132
Brandon Moreno	+104

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Taira vs Moreno Betting Trends

Moreno has never been finished in the UFC and has gone to 14 career decisions, making the over and decision props live.
Taira’s grappling success rate improves dramatically when he gets early back control — but he has just two UFC decision wins and five stoppages, meaning his style skews finish-heavy. His lone loss came via decision.
Moreno is 2-0 since his skid in 2023–24, beating Amir Albazi (-175) and Steve Erceg (-265) with sharp, composed performances, albeit as steady chalk. He has been an underdog just once since 2020 (+155 win vs Deiveson Figuieredo at UFC 263).
This bout opened at pick'em odds. The younger Taira has since grown to a -132 favorite.

Taira vs Moreno Prediction

This matchup is tight, but Moreno’s experience and composure in chaotic scrambles give him a real edge the longer the fight goes. Taira’s strengths are obvious — fast transitions, a slick back take, and a youth-driven pace — but he has never fought someone with Moreno’s blend of durability, championship seasoning, and defensive grappling.

Moreno’s jab, improved shot selection, and ability to build reads over time make him the cleaner minute-winner on the feet. He also manages energy better across three rounds, whereas Taira historically front-loads his offense (four takedowns and one knockdown in Rd 1 vs HyunSung Park).

The grappling is where this fight gets interesting. Taira will create moments, especially early, but Moreno’s ability to scramble, deny hooks, and reverse positions should prevent prolonged back-takes or submission chains. Moreno’s top game — underrated for years — becomes a real scoring weapon in R2 and R3 if Taira slows. And, as I noted in the trends, Taira is best as a finisher. His lone loss came to Brandon Royval, who fended off the grappling and peppered him with punches for 25 minutes, outlanding Taira 124-42 to nab a split-decision win.

Taira is live for an early submission and could absolutely steal rounds with quick transitions. Still, on balance, Moreno’s durability, pace, and late-round control make him the more reliable pick. Expect the veteran to survive the early danger, keep exchanges clean, and edge rounds with damage and composure.