UFC on ESPN 7: Overeem vs Rozenstruik Odds and Picks

For the first time in over eight years, the UFC returns to the nation’s capital for UFC on ESPN 7 at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., on December 7. A pair of heavyweights are on the marquee for this card with Alistair “The Demolition Man” Overeem colliding with Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik. The former champion, Overeem, is a slight -125 favorite with the undefeated Rozenstruik coming back at -105.

Alistair Overeem vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

After back-to-back knockout losses, Overeem (-125) has secured back-to-back first-round knockout victories of his own and eyes his first three-fight winning streak in over three years. In doing so, he will have to hand Rozenstruik (-105) the first loss of his professional career. The Suriname native has a perfect 9-0 record with eight wins coming by knockout, including all three in the UFC, and his last two bouts lasted a combined 38 seconds.

The Demolition Man has had great performances in his last two bouts with first-round knockout wins over Sergei Pavlovich and Alexey Oleynik. Since losing to Curtis Blaydes in 2018, Overeem has been training with Blaydes to work on his wrestling and in his performances since, he has shown a nasty ground and pound after securing a takedown. However, getting in close for a takedown could be dangerous vs Rozenstruik, who has dangerous knockout power that has been on display in his three UFC bouts, including a knockout of Allen Crowder with a jab. Overeem is a massive step up in competition, though, being a former champion, and his three losses since 2015 have come against top guys in Stipe Miocic, Francis Ngannou and Blaydes.

Prediction: Alistair Overeem (-125) via knockout

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Marina Rodriguez vs Cynthia Calvillo

A winning streak will come to an end in the co-main as Rodriguez (-135) looks to remain unbeaten by stopping Calvillo (+105) and her two-fight winning streak. Rodriguez earned a UFC contract with her first-round TKO victory in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series and has gone 2-0-1 in the Octagon with each fight going to the judges’ scorecards. As for Calvillo, she suffered her first pro loss to Carla Esparza in December 2017 by unanimous decision but has bounced back with two consecutive wins.

The Brazil native, Rodriguez, does a fantastic job fighting at range and doesn’t allow her opponents to really back her down as she stands her ground when she nears the fence. When she decides to attack, she does so with fast combinations usually ending with a solid leg kick. She has outstruck all three of her UFC opponents and averages 6.18 significant strikes per minute. Meanwhile, the American, Calvillo, elects to do most of her damage on the floor as she averages 1.57 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least one takedown in five of her six UFC bouts. Since her suspension in 2018, her striking looks a lot more polished too and she outstruck her two most recent foes using fantastic footwork to land and avoid strikes.

Prediction: Cynthia Calvillo (+105) via decision

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Stefan Struve vs Ben Rothwell

A couple of struggling heavyweights at a crossroads will battle looking to find their footing. Rothwell (-145) has dropped his last three bouts and is searching for his first win since 2016. Of course, over that span, he had a two-year suspension for failing a drug test – he returned in March and has lost two fights, both by decision. Struve (+115), on the other hand, is coming off a win that halted his three-fight losing slide, as he scored a second-round submission win over Marcos Rogerio de Lima in February.

“Skyscraper” Struve is the tallest athlete in the UFC at six-foot-11 and has an 84-inch reach, although he does a very poor job using that reach to his advantage. He has been outstruck in each of his past five fights, including 25-0 in his last bout. That said, on the floor he has tremendous submission skills, with 18 of his 29 pro wins coming in that manner. As for Rothwell, he’s a big man as well, standing six-foot-four and with a 78-inch reach that he knows how to use. Of his 36 wins, 27 have been by knockout as he slowly inches forward looking to back his foes against the cage before throwing fight-ending strikes.

Prediction: Ben Rothwell (-145) via knockout

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Aspen Ladd vs Yana Kunitskaya

For the first time in her young pro career, Aspen Ladd (-160) is coming off a loss, lasting just 16 seconds against title challenger Germaine de Randamie. Ladd did appeal the stoppage, believing it came early, though she didn’t win that appeal. Looking to hand Ladd a second consecutive loss is Yana “Foxy” Kunitskaya (+130), who is eyeing a three-fight winning streak. Kunitskaya lost her UFC debut at featherweight against Cris Cyborg, but afterward the Russia native dropped back down to bantamweight and is 2-0.

Ladd had a really bad weight cut in her last bout, almost needing to be held up on the scale, and that may have resulted in her flash knockout loss to GDR. On the feet, she stands quite flat-footed and doesn’t have much head movement whatsoever. However, in striking exchanges, she does a good job keeping her hands high and firing back with bad intentions. Kunitskaya throws long kicks and combinations backing her opponents down. She doesn’t have a ton of power, not earning a T/KO in seven years, and when she’s engaging with her opponents, she doesn’t have a lot of head movement either, resulting in her absorbing 4.01 significant strikes per minute.

Prediction: Yana Kunitskaya (+130) via decision

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Cody Stamann vs Song Yadong

A Sportsbook of three fight bonuses in four fights, Song “Kung Fu Monkey” Yadong (-190) looks to remain undefeated in the UFC and win his eighth fight in a row overall. His opponent, Cody “The Spartan” Stamann (+155), had a 10-fight winning streak snapped in September 2018 but rebounded with a decision win over Alejandro Perez in March.

The Spartan is an aggressive fighter who likes to get in the face of his opponents, pushing them back against the cage before letting his strikes fly. He has outstruck four of his five counterparts in the Octagon, only failing to outstrike Aljamain Sterling in a bout that also represents his only loss in the UFC. He does a great job reading his opponents’ movements as well, making them miss 63 percent of their strike attempts, and only absorbs 3.29 significant strikes per minute. The Kung Fu Monkey is a more patient fighter, baiting his opponents to engage with him, and when they do, he stands his ground and throws powerful strikes. He averages 4.28 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.75 and makes his foes miss 68 percent of their strike attempts.

Prediction: Song Yadong (-190) via decision

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Here’s a look at the rest of the odds for UFC on ESPN 7:

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook

Odds as of December 3 at Sportsbook