After watching journeymen like Brian Campbell and Joe Highsmith (seriously) win the past two weeks, the PGA Tour is in desperate need of some star power—and finally it arrives in the form of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scottie Scheffler has won this tournament twice in the past three seasons, and headlines a Signature Event field that features 48 of the top 50 players in the world.
Scheffler, still searching for his first victory in 2025, opens as the +320 favorite for the Arnold Palmer Invitation odds at Sportsbook. Following Scheffler on the odds board are the winners of the past two Signature Events: Rory McIlroy (+750), who prevailed at Pebble Beach, and Ludvig Aberg (+1600), who claimed the relocated Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines.
The Arnold Palmer also marks the return of world No. 2 Xander Schauffele (+1800), who’s been on the shelf since the season-opening Sentry nursing a rib injury he suffered during the offseason.
PGA Tour Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +320 |
| Rory McIlroy | +750 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1600 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2200 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
| Justin Thomas | +2800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2800 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3000 |
| Sungjae Im | +3900 |
| Russell Henley | +4400 |
| Shane Lowry | +4900 |
| Will Zalatoris | +5000 |
Odds as of March 4 at Sportsbook
Scheffler, though, has been a machine at Bay Hill Club in Orlando. His average career finish of 5.3 in this tournament is nearly twice as good as that of the next-best player (McIroy, at 10.0). Scheffler finished T15 in his debut in 2020, and has gone win-T4-win the past three years. Among players who have made at least four career starts, his scoring average of 70.5 at the Arnold Palmer ranks fifth-best ever—this in an event that dates back to 1979.
PGA Tour Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets
Scottie Scheffler To Win (+320) at Sportsbook
Betting chalk isn’t fun, but in this case it’s completely deserved. Scheffler has been head-and-shoulders above everyone else at Bay Hill the past three seasons, and there’s no reason to believe he’s going to let up this time around. The world No. 1 got off to a late start to the season due to his run-in with a broken glass on Christmas, but he’s clearly rounding into form—his T3 last time out at the Genesis was his best result yet this year.
Rory McIlroy Top-5 Finish (+180) at Sportsbook
McIlroy has been consistently good at Bay Hill over nearly the course of a decade, winning there in 2018, finishing as runner-up in 2023, and sprinkling in a handful of top-10s in between. His career scoring average of 70.4 at the Arnold Palmer is even a tick better than Scheffler’s, which is saying something. McIlroy has also been excellent in all three of his starts so far this season, topped by a romp through Pebble Beach—where he shot 66 or lower in three of his four rounds.
Justin Thomas Top-10 Finish (+230) at Sportsbook
We’ve been waiting for the resurgent Thomas to show us something in a Signature Event—and he finally did in the Genesis Invitational, where he closed with back-to-back 69s to finish T9. JT had been flirting with that type of performance all season, evident in a runner-up in the AMEX, a T6 at Phoenix, and an opening 66 at Pebble. After two seasons in the wilderness, Thomas looks like he’s ready to hang with the big boys for the first time since winning the PGA Championship in 2022.
PGA Tour Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Tips
Schauffele may be the No. 4 player on the odds board, but it’s really hard to know what to expect from the American—he finished T30 in the limited-field Sentry before taking a break to nurse his rib injury, and he’s never finished better than T24 in three previous appearances in the Arnold Palmer. Behind him in odds is Collin Morikawa, who’s missed the cut the past two years at Bay Hill and has been good but not great in his past two starts.
Since Signature Events were implemented with the 2024 PGA Tour season, just two non-major winners have emerged victorious—Chris Kirk in last year’s Sentry, and Aberg in the Genesis last month. Scheffler and McIlroy have combined to win eight of them. While that doesn’t guarantee anything going forward, it does give you a good idea of just how top-heavy these tournaments have been, and where the winners tend to come from.
Could anyone else defy that trend at Bay Hill? Russell Henley (+4400) owns three top-10s this season, including a T5 in a Signature at Pebble, and finished T4 at Bay Hill last season. Ben Griffin (+8000) has been T4 in each of the past two weeks, and was T14 in his lone start at Bay Hill in 2023. And then there’s the steady Patrick Cantlay (+3000), who notched a T5 at the Genesis in his most recent outing, and finished T4 at Bay Hill in 2023.
