With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, we had a near miss as Joel Dahmen collapsed on the back nine Sunday and Taylor Moore narrowly missed cashing a top-10 wager for us. Getting back to our roots this week at TPC Scottsdale, we will instead look to the top-20 market as the top-heaviness of the oddsboard affords us some nice prices on quality players.
At Sportsbook, tournament favorite Jon Rahm is -300 to finish inside the top 20. According to our odds calculator, this implies a 75.00 percent chance for him to do so this week. Having finished no worse than in a tie for 16th in his six previous Waste Management Phoenix Open appearances, the world No. 1 should once again play well in the Arizona desert. But needing to lay $300 to profit $100 at those odds, we will instead search further down the Waste Management Phoenix Open betting board in search of some perceived value.
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2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open: What to Look For
It has been quite some time since we have seen a tournament favorite or one of the premier players in the world win on the PGA Tour. Outside of Hideki Matsuyama at the Zozo Championship and Sony Open and Viktor Hovland at the World Wide Technology Championship, surprise Sportsbooks have been a common theme in the 2021-22 PGA Tour season.
With course history being so relevant this week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, it is important to note those who have fared well at TPC Scottsdale in the past. We begin with Rahm, who is not only a Scottsdale resident but plays out of a Tom Weiskopf design on his weeks off. Possessing a career scoring average of 68.17 on the par 71, the Spaniard has collected six top-16 finishes in six starts, three of which doubled as top-10 finishes.
Then there is world No. 7 Justin Thomas, who struggled a bit at first at TPC Scottsdale, missing the cut twice in his first three appearances, but has since found his footing on the 7,300-yard course. With four consecutive top-20 finishes, the American was in contention in 2020 and 2021 and notably lost to his friend Rickie Fowler two years ago.
Playing in the penultimate group in last year’s tournament, Thomas struggled on Sunday, but should once again be in contention in this edition of the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Finally, there is the only two-time Sportsbook on the PGA Tour this season, Hideki Matsuyama. Garnering a career scoring average of 67.97 at TPC Scottsdale, the man from Japan is set for his ninth appearance in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. After winning in back-to-back years in 2016 and 2017, the world No. 10 has struggled a bit since. The Masters champion has zero top-10 finishes in his last four appearances, collecting results of WD, T-15, T-16 and T-42 since his victory in 2017.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Prop Bets & Best Bets
Aaron Wise +500 To Finish Inside The Top 20
In subpar fields, there are players who are capable of contending week in and week out. Wise would certainly qualify as such a player, but once the competition level ramps us, his potential to win decreases significantly as he is just not there in his career progression.
We saw this at the Farmers Insurance Open where the former Oregon Duck missed the cut in the first strong field of 2022. However, taking a step back, the results Wise was able to muster in 2021 makes him worthy of a top-20 wager this week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Wise enjoyed a fantastic fall swing, collecting a T-26 at the HPE Houston Open, T-15 at the World Wide Technology Championship, T-5 at the CJ Cup @ Summit, T-8 at the Shriners Children’s Open and T-26 at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
After shaking off the rust in his first start of the year in San Diego, Wise should be in line for a nice bounce-back. Making his third start at TPC Scottsdale, the former NCAA individual champion missed the cut in his first outing before finishing in a tie for 66th last year, perhaps indicating an increased comfort level among the rowdiness of the Arizona crowd. Wise makes for our first prop bet of the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Denny McCarthy +600 To Finish Inside The Top 20
The 28-year-old may not be able to win in a field of this caliber, but given his recent stretch of golf, a top-20 is more than doable. A popular selection based solely on his putting prowess, the former Virginia Cavalier has continued to improve his tee-to-green game early in the 2021-22 season.
While the driver and iron play have yet to cooperate in unison, just one aspect of his ball-striking peaking is enough given how great a putter McCarthy is. The American has already collected six top-20 finishes in this young season and enjoyed a great California swing.
Finishing T-6 at the American Express and T-12 last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, McCarthy found his touch on the poa annua greens of the westernmost state. Known to do his best work on Bermuda grass, a return to such a surface this week at TPC Scottsdale should once again propel him to a quality result.
While his tournament history is nothing to hang your hat on, capturing finishes of T-33, T-59 and MC, McCarthy has never arrived at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in such great form. He’s a completely different player than in years past and I like the Maryland native to squeak inside the top 20 this week in Arizona.
Patton Kizzire +850 To Finish Inside The Top 20
Unlike Wise and McCarthy, Kizzire has yet to find a truly memorable result in the 2021-22 season. With him missing four cuts and unable to play his way inside the top 20 in any tournament, some may be inclined to pass on this prop bet. However, the way he has been striking the ball in 2022 is adequate and should translate to success at TPC Scottsdale.
A long hitter, the Auburn product’s week will be told by his misses, meaning if he avoids the trouble that lurks, he should find his name on the first or second page of the leaderboard. Kizzire hit his irons extremely well at the Sony Open (T-42) and the American Express (T-22).
Now set for his seventh Waste Management Phoenix Open appearance, Kizzire boasts a 5-for-6 cut rate in Scottsdale, with his best outcome in 2018 when he finished in a tie for 31st. I expect the 35-year-old to improve on such an effort and find his way into the top 20 by week’s end.
James Hahn +1000 To Finish Inside The Top 20
Hahn was our final selection at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and while he had to withdraw due to COVID-19 before the beginning of the tournament, our sentiments have not changed. The results have yet to stack up for the two-time Sportsbook on the PGA Tour in 2022, but the quality is there when sifting through his statistics.
Great from tee to green at the American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open, Hahn is simply an adequate short-game week away from a strong result. If there was ever a place or week for this to happen, it is this week at TPC Scottsdale.
Hahn, making his 10th appearance in the Waste Management Phoenix Open, has had a number of close calls, including last year when he entered the back nine Sunday with the solo lead. With a career scoring average of 69.41, the 40-year-old has collected five top-25 finishes, four of which doubled as top-20s.
Hahn has three performances of +5.0 SG: Putting on this course in his career and should once again be in for a great week. He rounds out our prop bets for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.