PredictIt Gets CFTC Nod as Fully Regulated Exchange
PredictIt has entered a new era after securing full regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This milestone marks the end of a multi-year legal battle, granting the veteran prediction market platform a license to operate as a regulated exchange and derivatives clearinghouse in the United States.
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PredictIt’s Journey To Regulation
For more than a decade, PredictIt operated under a CFTC “no-action letter” that allowed limited market offerings, capping volumes and prohibiting broader participation. That status was challenged in late 2022 when the CFTC revoked permission, sparking legal action and intense debate.
In July, a federal court cleared the way for Aristotle, PredictIt’s parent company, to pursue full market licensing. On September 5, the CFTC formally granted Aristotle Exchange both Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) status.
The move effectively opens the door for Predictit to expand public prediction trading in the U.S. Previously focused mainly on political markets, the platform has the chance to open things up and compete with established players such as Kalshi, which has seen explosive growth since its introduction of sports contracts.
What’s Next for PredictIt?
PredictIt is preparing to relaunch its platform in October 2025. Now officially branded under Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc., the CFTC approval allows the platform to expand well beyond its traditional political betting roots. That could translate into more diverse market types, higher trading limits, and deeper liquidity.
“We thank the CFTC staff and Acting Chair Pham for their diligence in reviewing and approving our applications. With more than a decade of experience operating PredictIt, we’re excited to bring that knowledge and community to a fully regulated marketplace. Prediction markets help people understand the future, and this approval allows us to deliver the most robust and transparent version of that vision yet.” |
For PredictIt, the benefit is clear. After effectively being limited and sidelined, they now have the chance to enter the full field of play. Prediction market traders may have more options to explore before too long. In addition to the expected PredictIt expansion, Polymarket is nearing a return to the US after receiving its own green light from the CFTC.
Shifting Tides On Prediction Market Regulation
PredictIt’s full regulatory approval is another big shift for prediction markets in the U.S. The approval and relaunch set the stage for the platform to expand beyond politics. Prediction markets that have proven to be hits include sports, economic forecasts, and pop culture events. We’ll have to wait and see what the lineup looks like at relaunch.
After months of CFTC uncertainty, we’ve seen a flurry of news, with Polymarket and PredictIt receiving green lights in successive fashion. Meanwhile, an outgoing CFTC commissioner has expressed concerns about “too few guardrails” for prediction markets. It has been an incredibly interesting few months for this segment, and there will likely be much more to come.
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