Golden State (61-32 SU, 46-43-4 ATS) is back in the Western Conference final for the sixth time in eight years, while Dallas (60-35, 56-37-2) is making its first conference final appearance since 2011. The Warriors opened as 5.5-point favorites for Game 1 as they look to win their 13th consecutive series opener at home.
Mavericks vs Warriors Odds & Analysis
Even after Dallas’ impressive upset of Phoenix in the second round, oddsmakers are reluctant to give the Mavs too much credit as they prepare for Golden State. Dallas opened as a 5.5-point underdog for Game 1, the most points the Mavs have been spotted in a matchup with the Warriors in more than three years.
Get the best Mavericks vs Warriors odds and lines available from our recommended sportsbooks for your favorite picks of the night.
Mavs Ride Defense, Doncic Into First Conference Final Appearance In 11 Years
The Mavericks are in the Western Conference final for the first time since 2011 and their defense is a huge reason why. After allowing just 104.7 points per game in the regular season, Dallas has ratcheted its D to new heights in the playoffs, holding opponents to 101 points or less in seven of its last 10 games.
Offensively, Luka Doncic leads all active playoff scorers with an average of 31.5 points per game, but he’s had some more help lately. Spencer Dinwiddie poured in 30 points off the bench in the Mavs’ Game 7 rout of the Suns on Sunday, combining with Doncic to score 48 of Dallas’ 57 points in the first half. Jalen Brunson added 24 points, the fifth straight game in which he’s scored at least 18.
Veteran Warriors Typically Open Series With Victories, Will Have Coach Kerr Back
Golden State’s biggest advantage in this series could be its experience. The core of Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson is making its sixth trip to the West final in the last eight years, and the Warriors haven’t lost a series to a conference opponent since 2015.
A big key to that playoff success has been Golden State’s tendency to start series on the right foot. The Warriors are a sizzling 20-2 SU in their last 22 series openers, and they’re 12-0 in their last dozen Game 1s at home. This year, they’ve got the added advantage of four days to prepare following their six-game victory over Memphis in Round 2. Golden State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games on three days’ rest or more.
Head coach Steve Kerr will be back on the sidelines tonight after missing the final three games of the Memphis series in COVID-19 protocols. The Warriors also hope to have Otto Porter Jr. in the lineup after the small forward missed their last two games due to foot soreness, but Gary Payton II remains sidelined with a broken elbow.
Mavericks vs Warriors Pick & Insights
Mavericks: Keys To Cover
Dallas’ defense consistently keeps the Mavs in games, which is evident in their 18-9 ATS record in their last 27 as an underdog. The Mavericks have also gone UNDER the total in 47 of their last 70 as a dog, making a low-scoring game seem like another strong option for your Mavericks vs Warriors predictions. During the regular season, Dallas defended Curry well, holding him to under 30 percent on his 34 attempts from behind the arc.
Warriors: Keys To Cover
Golden State ranked fifth in the NBA in rebounds per game this season while Dallas was third-last, and Kevon Looney recorded 22 boards in the Warriors’ series-clinching win over the Grizzlies on Friday. If Golden State is able to control the glass and generate extra scoring opportunities for its shooters, it should mean a point spread cover for anyone backing the Dubs in their Mavericks vs Warriors predictions.
NBA Computer Pick: Warriors -5
Check out more of our signature NBA computer picks, plus our favorite sportsbooks that serve basketball customers.
Doc's Picks Service
Need more winning picks? Get $60 worth of premium member picks from Doc’s Sports – a recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971.
Odds Shark Staff Thu, Jun 23, 2:13pm