2020-21 NBA Underdog Betting Report - ATS and Moneyline Records
One of the best feelings in the world when betting on NBA basketball games is using your research to identify a key mismatch in backing a plus-money underdog to win the game. For the 2020-21 NBA season, that feeling has been a regular occurrence because underdogs have been raking in the profits for NBA bettors.
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As always at Odds Shark, we’ve identified the key trend to help bettors approach this unconventional NBA season and that’s to back underdogs and to do it regularly. If you had backed every underdog against the spread so far this season (189 games), you would’ve hit 56.9 percent of your bets. That’s a big drop from last week when the number was at 60.3 percent.
We will be updating this report with new data weekly all the way through to the final buzzer of the NBA championship so be sure to check back frequently.
Joe Osborne is also keeping track of all the NBA first-half and first-quarter betting results from this season and you can find those updated records in his betting report.
All profits listed based on $100 per bet.
NBA Underdog ATS Report
| Situation | Underdog ATS Records | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 107-81-1 (56.9%) | +$1,627.27 |
| HOME | 40-39 (50.6%) | -$263.64 |
| ROAD | 67-42-1 (61.5%) | +$1,890.91 |
| LAST 7 DAYS | 19-23-1 (45.2%) | -$572.73 |
Betting records as of January 18, 2021
As you can see, underdogs have been covering the spread at an incredible clip this NBA season. Overall, underdogs are hitting at 56.9 percent but that is a sharp decline from January 11 when dogs were hitting at 60.3 percent. Home dogs were up $481.85 on January 11 and now are -$263.64, which represents a $745.49 profit swing had you been backing every underdog in this scenario.
While there are a lot of factors that could dictate these game outcomes, the biggest variable that sportsbooks have struggled to adapt to is the lack of home-court advantage.
Road teams have been doing the heavy lifting for this trend to start the year by hitting at 61.5 percent through 110 games. If you had bet $100 against the spread for every road team this season, you’d be up to $1,890.91 in profit. Bettors should be ecstatic about that kind of ROI.
NBA Underdog Moneyline Report
| Situation | Underdog ATS Records | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 79-110 (41.8%) | +$3,950.95 |
| HOME | 31-48 (39.2%) | +$1,010.48 |
| ROAD | 48-62 (43.6%) | +$2,940.48 |
| LAST 7 DAYS | 11-32 (25.6%) | -$1,340.0 |
Betting records as of January 18, 2021
OK, now this is where it gets fun because any bettor who is backing an underdog ATS this season might as well just sprinkle on the moneyline too because underdogs are crushing it. Forget about the overall winning percentage (41.8 percent), as all of these teams are listed at plus money, and just look at the profit. That means in 189 games, if you had just blindly bet $100 on each underdog as an experiment, you would’ve made a profit of $3,950.95. Just incredible.
Much like the ATS records, it all comes down to the road dogs. The lack of crowd noise and the frequent two-game slates against an opponent are putting oddsmakers in a bind when trying to set these betting lines and they’re paying the price. Road underdogs are hitting at 43.6 percent with profits of $2,940.48 for $100 bettors.
NBA Underdog ATS Team Report
| Team | Underdog Win Percentage ATS | ATS Underdog Record | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jazz | 100.0 | 2-0 | 181.82 |
| Clippers | 100.0 | 1-0 | 90.91 |
| Pacers | 80.0 | 4-1 | 263.64 |
| Celtics | 80.0 | 4-1 | 263.64 |
| Suns | 75.0 | 3-1 | 172.73 |
| Spurs | 75.0 | 6-2 | 345.45 |
| Bulls | 75.0 | 9-3 | 518.18 |
| Wizards | 71.4 | 5-2 | 254.55 |
| Mavericks | 71.4 | 5-2 | 254.55 |
| Hornets | 70.0 | 7-3 | 336.36 |
| Nets | 66.7 | 2-1 | 81.82 |
| Grizzlies | 66.7 | 4-2 | 163.64 |
| Pistons | 63.6 | 7-4 | 236.36 |
| Hawks | 60.0 | 3-2 | 72.73 |
| Thunder | 58.3 | 7-5 | 136.36 |
| Pelicans | 50.0 | 3-3 | -27.27 |
| Knicks | 50.0 | 6-6 | -54.55 |
| Heat | 50.0 | 2-2 | -18.18 |
| Cavaliers | 50.0 | 6-6 | -54.55 |
| 76ers | 50.0 | 1-1-1 | -9.09 |
| Warriors | 44.4 | 4-5 | -136.36 |
| Timberwolves | 44.4 | 4-5 | -136.36 |
| Kings | 40.0 | 4-6 | -236.36 |
| Rockets | 37.5 | 3-5 | -227.27 |
| Magic | 37.5 | 3-5 | -227.27 |
| Trail Blazers | 33.3 | 1-2 | -109.09 |
| Raptors | 33.3 | 1-2 | -109.09 |
| Nuggets | 0.0 | 0-4 | -400.0 |
| Lakers | 0 | 0-0 | $0 |
| Bucks | 0 | 0-0 | $0 |
Betting records as of January 18, 2021
Right out of the gate, the two teams that immediately stand out are the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs, two teams nowhere close to winning a championship but crushing bookies when tabbed as underdogs. The Bulls lead the NBA in this scenario with a spectacular 9-3 ATS record when tabbed as an underdog.
The Spurs, meanwhile, are a forgotten powerhouse that continues to be frisky when underestimated by oddsmakers. San Antonio is a respectable 6-2 ATS in this spot and had you backed the Spurs each time with $100 bets, you’d be up to $345.45 in profit.
Naturally, we have yet to see the Los Angeles Lakers or Milwaukee Bucks as underdogs ATS this season. However, they do face each other on January 21 in Milwaukee, so it should be interesting to see what line oddsmakers set for this potential NBA Finals preview.
NBA Underdog Moneyline Team Report
| Team | Underdog Win Percentage ATS | ATS Underdog Record | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jazz | 100.0 | 2-0 | 340.0 |
| Clippers | 100.0 | 1-0 | 115.0 |
| Pacers | 80.0 | 4-1 | 400.0 |
| Celtics | 80.0 | 4-1 | 475.24 |
| Suns | 75.0 | 3-1 | 320.0 |
| Nets | 66.7 | 2-1 | 215.0 |
| Mavericks | 57.1 | 4-3 | 205.0 |
| Thunder | 50.0 | 6-6 | 480.0 |
| Spurs | 50.0 | 4-4 | 400.0 |
| Knicks | 50.0 | 6-6 | 1340.0 |
| Hornets | 50.0 | 5-5 | 870.0 |
| Grizzlies | 50.0 | 3-3 | 75.24 |
| Cavaliers | 50.0 | 6-6 | 340.24 |
| Warriors | 44.4 | 4-5 | 110.0 |
| Bulls | 41.7 | 5-7 | 480.0 |
| Hawks | 40.0 | 2-3 | 25.0 |
| Trail Blazers | 33.3 | 1-2 | 0.0 |
| Pelicans | 33.3 | 2-4 | -154.76 |
| Kings | 30.0 | 3-7 | -160.0 |
| Wizards | 28.6 | 2-5 | -35.0 |
| Pistons | 27.3 | 3-8 | -30.0 |
| Rockets | 25.0 | 2-6 | -250.0 |
| Magic | 25.0 | 2-6 | -320.0 |
| Heat | 25.0 | 1-3 | -100.0 |
| Timberwolves | 22.2 | 2-7 | -190.0 |
| Raptors | 0.0 | 0-3 | -300.0 |
| Nuggets | 0.0 | 0-4 | -400.0 |
| Lakers | 0 | 0-0 | $0 |
| Bucks | 0 | 0-0 | $0 |
| 76ers | 0.0 | 0-3 | -300.0 |
Betting records as of January 11, 2021
Welcome back, New York Knicks! The longtime dumpster fire of a basketball team has been turning heads this season and has opened bettors’ eyes to a tough defensive team that plays hard under head coach Tom Thibodeau. We’ll see if it lasts but so far, they’ve been the biggest surprise as an underdog by winning six of those 12 games outright for $1,340 in profit for $100 bettors.
Not too far behind are the improved Charlotte Hornets as the buzzzzzz for LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward has pushed this team to 6-8 SU overall and 5-5 SU as an underdog. Oddsmakers will need to start puttin’ some respeck on the Knicks and Hornets soon but for now, get on them while you can when they are listed as underdogs.
