2020-21 NBA Underdog Betting Report - ATS and Moneyline Records
One of the best feelings in the world when betting on NBA basketball games is using your research to identify a key mismatch in backing a plus-money underdog on the moneyline to win the game. For the 2020-21 NBA season, that feeling was a common occurrence because backing home underdogs ended up being profitable for NBA bettors through the season.
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As we always do at Odds Shark, we identified a key trend to help bettors approach this unconventional NBA season and that was to take a hard look at backing home underdogs on the moneyline. If you had backed every NBA home underdog on the moneyline for the 2020-21 season with $100 bets (464 games), you’d have finished with $2,289.10 in profit.
This is the final update to this report as we get set to watch teams compete for the NBA championship.
Joe Osborne is also keeping track of all the NBA first-half and first-quarter betting results from this season and you can find those updated records in his betting report.
All profits listed based on $100 per bet.
| Situation | Underdog SU Records | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 367-710 (34.1%) | -$1,515.18 |
| HOME | 170-294 (36.6%) | +$2,289.1 |
| ROAD | 197-416 (32.1%) | -$3,804.28 |
| LAST 7 DAYS | 12-49 (19.7%) | -$2,539.76 |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 27-90 (23.1%) | -$4,214.05 |
| LAST 30 DAYS | 70-174 (28.7%) | -$2,738.57 |
| Pre-All-Star | 208-324 (39.1%) | +$5,242.2 |
| Post-All-Star | 159-386 (29.2%) | -$6,757.38 |
Betting records as of May 17, 2021
The “betting strategy” of only betting on NBA underdog moneylines went down the toilet! The overall numbers hit a new low for profits of -$1,515.18 for $100 bettors. Profits had rebounded sharply to grow all the way back to $4,802.91 as of March 22 but the last eight weeks eliminated all of the profit progress.
Home underdogs did the heavy lifting for this trend, hitting at 36.6 percent for profits of $2,289.10 for $100 bettors. As for why this underdog ML trend even occurred, you can perhaps point to the lack of crowd noise for home teams.
| Situation | Underdog ATS Records | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 521-541-15 (49.1%) | -$6,736.36 |
| HOME | 216-240-8 (47.4%) | -$4,363.64 |
| ROAD | 305-301-7 (50.3%) | -$2,372.73 |
| LAST 7 DAYS | 30-30-1 (50.0%) | -$272.73 |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 54-61-2 (47.0%) | -$1,190.91 |
| LAST 30 DAYS | 112-126-6 (47.1%) | -$2,418.18 |
| Pre-All-Star | 270-255-7 (51.4%) | -$954.55 |
| Post-All-Star | 251-286-8 (46.7%) | -$5,781.82 |
Betting records as of May 17, 2021
Overall, ATS underdogs fell faster than a rock in the ocean, with their win percentage dropping to 49.1 percent this season. This is an incredibly sharp decline from January 11 when the NBA Underdog Report debuted and dogs were hitting at 60.3 percent. Home ATS dogs were the weakness this season with a 216-240-8 record and $4,363.64 in losses had you backed each one of 464 underdogs in that spot.
Road teams did the heavy lifting for this trend to start the year and while they hit at 50.3 percent through 613 games, they still clocked in with negative profits at -$2,372.73.
NBA Underdog Report - Days of the Week
| Day | Underdog ATS | Underdog Profit | Underdog SU | Underdog Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 76-74-2 (50.7%) | -$490.91 | 55-97 (36.2%) | +$115.0 |
| Tuesday | 50-71-1 (41.3%) | -$2,554.55 | 35-87 (28.7%) | -$2,393.38 |
| Wednesday | 103-86-7 (54.5%) | +$763.64 | 71-125 (36.2%) | -$328.1 |
| Thursday | 57-62-1 (47.9%) | -$1,018.18 | 39-81 (32.5%) | +$485.48 |
| Friday | 79-103 (43.4%) | -$3,118.18 | 55-127 (30.2%) | -$2,794.52 |
| Saturday | 74-70-2 (51.4%) | -$272.73 | 49-97 (33.6%) | -$35.14 |
| Sunday | 82-75-2 (52.2%) | -$45.45 | 63-96 (39.6%) | +$3,435.48 |
Betting records as of May 17, 2021
One of my followers on Twitter brought to my attention an observation about underdogs covering the spread and/or winning outright more often on certain days of the week. Generally, I would’ve been dismissive of such an absurd trend since teams/matchups and many other betting factors change each day, regardless of where it falls on the calendar.
Well, I had to eat some crow on this because lo and behold, certain days just work out better for bettors. While I have yet to employ this strategy myself, that same follower swore by Thursdays and Sundays. For example, if you had blindly bet $100 on every underdog moneyline exclusively on Sundays (159 games), you’d have $3,435.48 in profit.
NBA Underdog ATS Team Report
| Team | Underdog Win % | ATS Record | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suns | 66.7 | 8-4 | 327.27 |
| Grizzlies | 63.9 | 23-13 | 790.91 |
| Nets | 63.2 | 12-7 | 390.91 |
| Wizards | 60.4 | 29-19 | 736.36 |
| Clippers | 60.0 | 6-4 | 145.45 |
| Knicks | 59.1 | 26-18-1 | 563.64 |
| Trail Blazers | 58.6 | 17-12 | 345.45 |
| Spurs | 56.4 | 22-17-2 | 300.0 |
| Mavericks | 56.0 | 14-11 | 172.73 |
| Pelicans | 55.6 | 20-16 | 218.18 |
| Celtics | 53.8 | 14-12 | 72.73 |
| Kings | 53.2 | 25-22 | 72.73 |
| Hawks | 51.5 | 17-16 | -54.55 |
| Pistons | 50.8 | 32-31-4 | -190.91 |
| Bulls | 50.0 | 23-23 | -209.09 |
| Hornets | 46.9 | 23-26-1 | -509.09 |
| Timberwolves | 45.8 | 27-32-2 | -745.45 |
| Pacers | 45.7 | 16-19 | -445.45 |
| Raptors | 44.4 | 16-20-1 | -545.45 |
| Magic | 44.1 | 26-33-2 | -936.36 |
| Thunder | 42.9 | 30-40 | -1,272.73 |
| Heat | 42.9 | 9-12 | -381.82 |
| 76ers | 42.9 | 6-8-2 | -254.55 |
| Warriors | 42.5 | 17-23 | -754.55 |
| Rockets | 41.1 | 23-33 | -1,209.09 |
| Jazz | 40.0 | 2-3 | -118.18 |
| Lakers | 38.1 | 8-13 | -572.73 |
| Nuggets | 37.5 | 6-10 | -454.55 |
| Cavaliers | 37.5 | 24-40 | -1,818.18 |
| Bucks | 0.0 | 0-4 | -400.0 |
Betting records as of May 17, 2021
Right out of the gate, the team that immediately stood out is the Memphis Grizzlies, who climbed up the ATS underdog standings with an impressive 23-13 record in that spot for $790.91 in profit for $100 bettors. The Grizzlies finished the season 41-30-1 ATS, showing they could be a winning bet in the role of favorite or underdog.
One team on the list that crushed bookies when tabbed as an ATS underdog was the Washington Wizards. The Wiz finished the season at 29-19 ATS as an underdog and were second in profit at $736.36 for $100 bettors. Russell Westbrook was on a tear near the end of the season and made the Wizards nearly an auto-bet when they were tabbed as an underdog.
NBA Underdog Moneyline Team Report
| Team | Underdog Win % | SU Record | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suns | 66.7 | 8-4 | 620.24 |
| Nets | 57.9 | 11-8 | 835.24 |
| Mavericks | 52.0 | 13-12 | 367.43 |
| Clippers | 50.0 | 5-5 | 195.0 |
| Grizzlies | 44.4 | 16-20 | 501.39 |
| Hawks | 42.4 | 14-19 | -59.29 |
| Celtics | 42.3 | 11-15 | 130.48 |
| Knicks | 42.2 | 19-26 | 1,070.24 |
| Trail Blazers | 41.4 | 12-17 | 185.48 |
| Warriors | 40.0 | 16-24 | 260.0 |
| Jazz | 40.0 | 2-3 | 40.0 |
| Pelicans | 38.9 | 14-22 | -109.52 |
| Wizards | 37.5 | 18-30 | 1,325.24 |
| Nuggets | 37.5 | 6-10 | -74.76 |
| Spurs | 36.6 | 15-26 | 230.0 |
| Kings | 36.2 | 17-30 | 310.24 |
| Hornets | 36.0 | 18-32 | 581.24 |
| Bulls | 34.8 | 16-30 | -99.76 |
| Pacers | 34.3 | 12-23 | -405.0 |
| Heat | 33.3 | 7-14 | -329.52 |
| Cavaliers | 29.7 | 19-45 | -349.76 |
| Thunder | 28.6 | 20-50 | -314.76 |
| Timberwolves | 27.9 | 17-44 | -5.0 |
| Pistons | 26.9 | 18-49 | -1,150.0 |
| 76ers | 25.0 | 4-12 | -645.0 |
| Raptors | 24.3 | 9-28 | -1,045.0 |
| Lakers | 23.8 | 5-16 | -430.0 |
| Magic | 23.0 | 14-47 | -1,080.0 |
| Rockets | 19.6 | 11-45 | -1,670.0 |
| Bucks | 0.0 | 0-4 | -400.0 |
Betting records as of May 17, 2021
Much like in underdog spread records, the Brooklyn Nets were one of the top teams you didn’t want to bet against when tabbed as dogs. The Nets were also third in moneyline profits this season at 11-8 SU as underdogs and had you bet $100 on them each time, you’d be up to $835.24.
The team that finished with the underdog crown this season is the Washington Wizards at 18-30 SU in 48 games. Had you bet $100 each time the Wiz were dogs this season, you’d have $1,525.24 in profit.
Another squad on the radar as an underdog this season was the Charlotte Hornets. With LaMelo Ball returning to the lineup, the Hornets had more buzzzz surrounding them in this spot and finished the season 18-32 SU in 50 games as pups.
