2020-21 NBA Underdog Betting Report - ATS and Moneyline Records
One of the best feelings in the world when betting on NBA basketball games is using your research to identify a key mismatch in backing a plus-money underdog on the moneyline to win the game. For the 2020-21 NBA season, that feeling has been a common occurrence because backing underdogs has been profitable for NBA bettors.
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As always at Odds Shark, we’ve identified the key trend to help bettors approach this unconventional NBA season and that’s to take a hard look at backing underdogs on the moneyline. If you had backed every NBA underdog on the moneyline this season with $100 bets (847 games), you’d be up to $2,043.39 in profit. Those profits have certainly regressed but given how underdogs are doing ATS, the only way to go going forward may be moneylines.
We will be updating this report with new data weekly all the way through to the final buzzer of the NBA championship so be sure to check back frequently.
Joe Osborne is also keeping track of all the NBA first-half and first-quarter betting results from this season and you can find those updated records in his betting report.
All profits listed based on $100 per bet.
| Situation | Underdog SU Records | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 303-544 (35.8%) | +$2,043.39 |
| HOME | 134-225 (37.3%) | +$1,763.38 |
| ROAD | 169-319 (34.6%) | +$280.01 |
| LAST 7 DAYS | 18-38 (32.1%) | +$170.24 |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 37-74 (33.3%) | +$290.24 |
| LAST 30 DAYS | 71-166 (30.0%) | -$2,849.52 |
| Pre-All-Star | 208-324 (39.1%) | +$5,242.2 |
| Post-All-Star | 95-220 (30.2%) | -$3,198.81 |
Betting records as of April 19, 2021
This “betting strategy” of only betting on NBA underdog moneylines is back to going down the toilet! The overall numbers have gone up minimally over the last week (+$170.24) after hitting a new low on April 12 for profits of $1,853.15 for $100 bettors. Profits had rebounded sharply to grow all the way back to $4,802.91 as of March 22 but the last four weeks have eliminated most of the profit progress.
Home underdogs are doing the heavy lifting for this trend, hitting at 37.3 percent for profits of $1,763.38 for $100 bettors. As for why this underdog ML trend is even occurring, you can perhaps point to the lack of crowd noise for home teams.
This is why any conventional bettor who had the “I told ya so” comment queued up about the flaws of betting all underdog moneylines can’t just look at a two-week sample size and write off this trend. Time will tell who’s right but for now, the trend is still profitable overall and we could see underdogs blow up again in a week’s time.
| Situation | Underdog ATS Records | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 415-423-9 (49.5%) | -$4,572.73 |
| HOME | 168-187-4 (47.3%) | -$3,427.27 |
| ROAD | 247-236-5 (51.1%) | -$1,145.45 |
| LAST 7 DAYS | 25-30-1 (45.5%) | -$727.27 |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 53-57-1 (48.2%) | -$881.82 |
| LAST 30 DAYS | 105-130-2 (44.7%) | -$3,454.55 |
| Pre-All-Star | 270-255-7 (51.4%) | -$954.55 |
| Post-All-Star | 145-168-2 (46.3%) | -$3,618.18 |
Betting records as of April 19, 2021
Overall, ATS underdogs are falling faster than a rock in the ocean. The win percentage for ATS underdogs has dropped to 49.5 percent this season. This is an incredibly sharp decline from January 11 when the NBA Underdog Report debuted and dogs were hitting at 60.3 percent. Home ATS dogs are the weakness this season with a 168-187-4 record and $3,427.27 in losses had you backed each one of 359 underdogs in that spot.
Road teams were doing the heavy lifting for this trend to start the year and while they’re hitting at 51.1 percent through 488 games, they’re still clocking in with negative profits at -$1,145.45.
NBA Underdog Report - Days of the Week
| Day | Underdog ATS | Underdog Profit | Underdog SU | Underdog Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 55-62-1 (47.0%) | -$1,200.0 | 40-78 (33.9%) | -$550.0 |
| Tuesday | 35-57-1 (38.0%) | -$2,518.18 | 27-66 (29.0%) | -$1,818.61 |
| Wednesday | 85-70-4 (54.8%) | +$727.27 | 60-99 (37.7%) | +$856.19 |
| Thursday | 47-45 (51.1%) | -$227.27 | 33-59 (35.9%) | +$1,035.48 |
| Friday | 66-83 (44.3%) | -$2,300.0 | 49-100 (32.9%) | -$1,514.52 |
| Saturday | 62-51-2 (54.9%) | +$536.36 | 43-72 (37.4%) | +$719.62 |
| Sunday | 65-55-1 (54.2%) | +$409.09 | 51-70 (42.1%) | +$3,315.24 |
Betting records as of April 19, 2021
One of my followers on Twitter brought to my attention an observation about underdogs covering the spread and/or winning outright more often on certain days of the week. Generally, I would’ve been dismissive of such an absurd trend since teams/matchups and many other betting factors change each day, regardless of where it falls on the calendar.
Well, I had to eat some crow on this because lo and behold, certain days just work out better for bettors. While I have yet to employ this strategy myself, that same follower swears by Thursdays and Sundays. For example, if you had blindly bet $100 on every underdog moneyline exclusively on Sundays (121 games), you’d be up to $3,315.24 in profit.
NBA Underdog ATS Team Report
| Team | Underdog Win % | Underdog Record ATS | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 78.6 | 11-3 | 700.0 |
| Suns | 70.0 | 7-3 | 336.36 |
| Grizzlies | 63.3 | 19-11 | 627.27 |
| Clippers | 62.5 | 5-3 | 154.55 |
| Spurs | 60.7 | 17-11 | 445.45 |
| Knicks | 58.3 | 21-15-1 | 409.09 |
| Wizards | 56.1 | 23-18 | 290.91 |
| Pistons | 55.1 | 27-22-4 | 254.55 |
| Celtics | 55.0 | 11-9 | 100.0 |
| 76ers | 54.5 | 6-5-1 | 45.45 |
| Bulls | 54.3 | 19-16 | 127.27 |
| Pelicans | 53.6 | 15-13 | 63.64 |
| Hornets | 52.6 | 20-18-1 | 18.18 |
| Trail Blazers | 52.2 | 12-11 | -9.09 |
| Mavericks | 50.0 | 11-11 | -100.0 |
| Jazz | 50.0 | 2-2 | -18.18 |
| Hawks | 50.0 | 14-14 | -127.27 |
| Magic | 48.9 | 22-23-1 | -300.0 |
| Kings | 48.6 | 18-19 | -263.64 |
| Raptors | 46.2 | 12-14 | -309.09 |
| Timberwolves | 44.0 | 22-28-1 | -800.0 |
| Thunder | 43.6 | 24-31 | -918.18 |
| Pacers | 42.3 | 11-15 | -500.0 |
| Heat | 42.1 | 8-11 | -372.73 |
| Cavaliers | 42.0 | 21-29 | -990.91 |
| Nuggets | 41.7 | 5-7 | -245.45 |
| Rockets | 36.6 | 15-26 | -1,236.36 |
| Lakers | 35.7 | 5-9 | -445.45 |
| Warriors | 35.3 | 12-22 | -1,109.09 |
| Bucks | 0.0 | 0-4 | -400.0 |
Betting records as of April 19, 2021
Right out of the gate, the team that immediately stands out is the Brooklyn Nets, as they’ve been crushing bookies when tabbed as ATS underdogs. The Nets are 11-3 ATS as an underdog this season and lead all teams in profit at $700 for $100 bettors. It seems that sportsbooks continue to undervalue them when one of the big three of Kevin Durant, James Harden or Kyrie Irving misses a game.
The Memphis Grizzlies have climbed up the ATS underdog standings with an impressive 19-11 record in that spot for $627.37 in profit for $100 bettors. The Grizzlies are also 34-20-1 ATS for the season, showing they can be a winning bet in the role of favorite or underdog.
NBA Underdog Moneyline Team Report
| Team | Underdog Win % | Underdog Record SU | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nets | 71.4 | 10-4 | 1,105.24 |
| Suns | 70.0 | 7-3 | 595.24 |
| Jazz | 50.0 | 2-2 | 140.0 |
| Clippers | 50.0 | 4-4 | 140.0 |
| Spurs | 46.4 | 13-15 | 950.0 |
| Mavericks | 45.5 | 10-12 | -2.81 |
| Celtics | 45.0 | 9-11 | 255.48 |
| Hornets | 43.6 | 17-22 | 1,306.24 |
| Trail Blazers | 43.5 | 10-13 | 385.24 |
| Grizzlies | 43.3 | 13-17 | 356.39 |
| Pelicans | 42.9 | 12-16 | 250.48 |
| Nuggets | 41.7 | 5-7 | 25.24 |
| Knicks | 40.5 | 15-22 | 870.0 |
| Hawks | 39.3 | 11-17 | -374.52 |
| Wizards | 39.0 | 16-25 | 1,620.0 |
| Pacers | 38.5 | 10-16 | -95.0 |
| Kings | 35.1 | 13-24 | -229.76 |
| Bulls | 34.3 | 12-23 | -169.76 |
| Cavaliers | 34.0 | 17-33 | 540.24 |
| 76ers | 33.3 | 4-8 | -245.0 |
| Thunder | 32.7 | 18-37 | 160.24 |
| Warriors | 32.4 | 11-23 | -310.0 |
| Heat | 31.6 | 6-13 | -324.76 |
| Raptors | 30.8 | 8-18 | -445.0 |
| Pistons | 28.3 | 15-38 | -690.0 |
| Magic | 23.9 | 11-35 | -680.0 |
| Timberwolves | 23.5 | 12-39 | -1,070.0 |
| Rockets | 22.0 | 9-32 | -1,330.0 |
| Lakers | 21.4 | 3-11 | -290.0 |
| Bucks | 0.0 | 0-4 | -400.0 |
Betting records as of April 19, 2021
Much like in underdog spread records, the Brooklyn Nets reign supreme as one of the top teams you don’t want to bet against when tabbed as dogs. The Nets are also second in moneyline profits so far this season at 10-4 SU as underdogs and had you bet $100 on them each time, you’d be up to $1,105.24.
The team that has the underdog crown so far this season and may be underdogs quite a bit more for the remainder of the season is the Charlotte Hornets. The reason why the mood has gone a bit sour on the Hornets is projected Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball has been lost for the season to a wrist injury and he was the main reason why Charlotte had so much buzzzzzz this season. The Hornets are now 17-22 SU in 39 games as pups and 28-28 SU overall in 56 games.
