Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat

Heat vs Bucks Picks & Odds Today: Butler-less Miami To Cover As Road Underdogs

On Thursday night, the Miami Heat (21-21) visit the Milwaukee Bucks (24-17) in a fascinating Eastern Conference primetime battle. The Heat are reeling, losing four of their last five games heading into tonight, and they are hoping for a bounce-back road win. The Bucks, meanwhile, have won four straight games and are playing fantastic basketball after a slow start to the season.

Is it time to buy low on the Heat? Or will the Bucks maintain their momentum in primetime? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out. 

 

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

Preview: Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 p.m. ET

TeamSpreadMoneyTotal
Miami Heat+7 (-108)+225O 226 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks-7 (-112)-275U 226 (-110)

Odds as of January 23, 2025 at Sportsbook

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Expert Picks

Miami Heat ATS +7 (-108)

The Bucks had a rough start to the year, opening with a 2-8 record, but they’ve gone 22-9 in their games since. As always for this team, the driving force has been the MVP-caliber play of Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak averages 31.5 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists per game on pristine 60.5% shooting from the field.

Damian Lillard has also had a resurgent season in his second year in Milwaukee, averaging 25 points on a 45-39-92 shooting split. Lillard’s playmaking has also been critical for the Bucks, averaging 7.1 assists per game. Spurred by elite play from Antetokounmpo and Lillard, the Bucks rank seventh in offensive rating over their last ten games, posting a 7-3 record over that span.

The Heat, meanwhile, limp into this contest on Thursday night, losers of four of their last five games. The Jimmy Butler trade saga has been a massive distraction for this group, as he’s now been suspended for the second time for missing the team’s flight to Milwaukee. The sooner he can get traded, the better, as it’s been a chaotic time for the Heat. However, this spread has become overinflated in this game.

The Heat have always played the Bucks close, dating back to their prior playoff matchups, and Erik Spoelstra should have his team raring to go with a significant coaching advantage over the Bucks’ Doc Rivers. Miami can lean on impressive production from Tyler Herro, averaging a career-high 24 points per game. Finally, the Heat have an excellent individual matchup for Antetokounmpo with Bam Adebayo, who has defended him well previously. With rookie Kel’el Ware also beginning to emerge in the Miami frontcourt, the Heat have the size to match up with the Bucks. This spread is overinflated due to the Heat’s recent struggles, and the Moneyline also offers value at +225 on FanDuel.

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Player Prop

Kel'el Ware OVER 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-111)

Amidst a promising rookie season, Kel’el Ware entered the starting lineup for the Heat in their last game, and he impressed with 20 points and 15 rebounds. The first-round pick out of Indiana has now posted 32+ points and rebounds in three of his last five games, and he should continue to see opportunities with Jimmy Butler suspended.

Ware’s positional versatility and size should be vital tonight against Milwaukee’s imposing frontcourt, and he’s cleared this prop in all three games with 24+ minutes played this season. 

 

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Trends

  • The Bucks have gone 10-10-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
  • The Heat have gone 6-7 ATS as a road underdog this season.
  • The Heat have gone 5-5 in their last ten games against the Bucks

*all betting trends courtesy of Outlier 

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