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Odds to Win NBA MVP: Giannis Is Huge Favorite Over LeBron and Harden

NBA MVP BETTING ODDS July 3, 2020 LeBron James Giannis Antetokounmpo

With bubble basketball in full swing in Orlando and teams in pursuit of the 2019-20 NBA championship, two All-NBA players may hold the key to how the postseason unfolds. Coincidentally, they are the top two contenders for the NBA Most Valuable Player Award.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James are first and second on the oddsboard to win NBA MVP, with Giannis sitting comfortably with -3300 odds (97.1 percent implied probability) to win his second straight MVP trophy.

LeBron is listed at +650 at the best basketball betting sites and, realistically, he and Giannis are the only two players who should be considered even though James Harden was named as one of the three finalists for the MVP award.

If this is your first time betting on an NBA MVP prop or basketball props in general, check out our How To Bet on the NBA guide that will offer tips on the best way to approach props, NBA futures and more.

DISCLAIMER: Voting for this award has already taken place and the NBA announced that games played in the Orlando bubble would not be considered in the award voting process.

Here is the full betting list for the 2019-20 NBA MVP with odds analysis below it:

2019-20 NBA Most Valuable Player Award Odds
PlayerOdds
Giannis Antetokounmpo-3300
LeBron James+650
James Harden+6600

Odds as of August 11 at Bovada

Why Giannis Will Win MVP

Before the suspension of the NBA season due to COVID-19, Giannis Antetokounmpo was putting up monster stats and had his Milwaukee Bucks in the driver’s seat. They led the NBA standings at 53-12 SU through 65 games and Giannis had upped his scoring and rebounding averages from his previous MVP-winning campaign in 2018-19.

The season suspension may have actually been some sort of divine intervention for the Greek Freak because he was nursing a knee injury in March that would’ve likely kept him out for two or three weeks and the Bucks were coming off some disappointing losses (most notably to the Lakers in prime time). With the NBA announcing Orlando games would NOT be taken into consideration for voting, it only helped Antetokounmpo’s case.

Now, it’s his award to lose. For the first 65 games, Giannis was a juggernaut. His two-way play was on full display all season and in 57 games played, he was shooting 54.9 percent from the floor on 20 shots per game, all while playing an average of only 30 minutes. As a result, the Bucks led the NBA in points per game prior to the season suspension.

Why LeBron Will Win MVP

Back in March, LeBron James made an incredible push to win the NBA’s Most Valuable Player Award but it might have been too late for the King to take back his throne.

LeBron was leading the league in assists and the Lakers were first in the Western Conference at 49-14 SU in 63 games prior to the season suspension. However, in my opinion, it would have been an uphill battle for LeBron to sway voters who were on the fence because all of that momentum and goodwill he had built up may have been forgotten during the break and with the NBA “in the bubble.”

Award races can sometimes come down to narratives more than stats so now would be the time to jump on LeBron at +650 if you think he’ll have gotten more votes than Giannis for the MVP trophy.

Check out our NBA futures odds page for the most up-to-date betting odds.


How to Read NBA MVP Odds

When you visit your betting site of choice, you’ll notice the odds for NBA MVP laid out like this:

Giannis Antetokounmpo -3500

LeBron James +650

James Harden +5000

Similar to a moneyline bet where favorites are shown by the minus sign (-) and underdogs have a plus sign (+), the player with the lowest odds is the fave. In this scenario it’s Giannis.

If you were to bet on which player will be named MVP, you would make a futures bet.

What is a Futures Bet?

This is a bet made on events that will happen in time. In this case, it’s MVP. To make a futures bet you would first use the handicapping info on this page to make your decision. Let’s say you feel strongly about Giannis’ chances and you have $1,000 to wager. A winning bet would give you a payout of $1,020.86 – you get your $1,000 back along with your prize of $20.86.

If you think LeBron James is going to have an incredible showing, that same $1,000 bet on him would give you a payout of $7,500 – your $1,000 is returned along with your winnings of $6,500. Our Odds Calculator can give you an idea of how much you’d win based on the MVP odds and the amount of money you bet.