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NBA Stat Leader Odds for 2018-19 Season

NBA League Stat Leader Odds for 2018-19 Season

Anthony Davis, John Wall and Andre Drummond. They might not be your first three picks when thinking of the best players in the NBA but oddsmakers have them as the favorites to lead the league in points, assists and rebounds for the 2018-19 season.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released odds for which players will lead the league in one of the holy trinity of fundamental NBA statistics with Anthony Davis as a +300 favorite to lead the league in points, John Wall at +150 to drop the most dimes and Andre Drummond at +150 to snatch the most rebounds.

Let’s break down each statistic and determine if the favorite is worth a wager or if there’s value with some other ballers:

The Brow’s Body May Betray Him and Bettors

Anthony Davis fits the “unicorn” label that is thrown around to every seven-footer who can shoot a deep three and is without a doubt a top-five talent in the NBA – when healthy. Davis played 75 games last season for the second straight year but with his playing style and usage rate (ranked 11th), he is prone to injury, which makes it difficult to endorse him at the +300 value. He finished second in scoring behind James Harden last season and has been in the top five in three of the last four seasons.

Harden, on the other hand, has been a model of consistency from a health standpoint and while he missed 10 games last year, he has only missed 21 games total over the last five seasons. The reigning MVP has finished in the top two in scoring for the last four seasons and possesses a game that is essential for winning this category by leading the NBA last year in free-throw and three-point attempts. The Rockets won’t be changing their game plan much coming into the season and this isn’t a field-goal percentage category so expect Houston to continue bombing away with Harden’s point totals (and potential bettors) being the main beneficiaries.

If bettors are looking for value on a player to break through and take the scoring title, Giannis “Greek Freak” Antetokounmpo at +700 may be the man to do it. Still just 23 years old, Giannis has upped his scoring rate each season since he’s come into the NBA and finished in the top five in points at 26.9 last season despite only averaging 1.9 three-point attempts per game. With new head coach Mike Budenholzer coming in, I expect them to play faster with more emphasis on the perimeter, which should give Giannis more opportunities to shoot from deep and raise his scoring average.

Gilles’ Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo at +700

Odds to Lead NBA in Points for 2018-19 Season
  • Anthony Davis +300
  • James Harden +300
  • LeBron James +650
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo +700
  • Damian Lillard +1200
  • Kevin Durant +1200
  • Steph Curry +1600
  • Kyrie Irving +1600
  • Devin Booker +1600
  • Kawhi Leonard +2000
  • Russell Westbrook +2000
  • Joel Embiid +2200
  • DeMar DeRozan +2200
  • Victor Oladipo +2200
  • Karl-Anthony Towns +2500
  • Donovan Mitchell +2500
  • Bradley Beal +3500
  • Blake Griffin +3500
  • Kemba Walker +3500
  • LaMarcus Aldridge +6000
Odds as of October 16 at  Bovada

Pistons’ Poor Shooting Gives Drummond The Edge

Andre Drummond may never be known as an excellent shooter in the NBA (he is reportedly shooting threes in practice now) but he has one essential skill and that is rebounding. The 25-year-old led the NBA in rebounds last season at 16 per game and has averaged double digits in this category every season of his career outside of his rookie year. Of his average 16 boards, five of them are from offensive rebounds, which means his team isn’t draining shots. Detroit ranked 23rd last season in overall field-goal percentage, which only boosts Drummond’s cause to scoop up the errant misses. He’s a decent candidate at +125 if you feel strongly about it but I like the value of another center in Dallas.

DeAndre Jordan finished second in the NBA in rebounds per game last season and moved from the Clippers to the Dallas Mavericks in the offseason. Jordan is a perfect complement to the Mavs’ new run-and-gun style they’re expected to adopt now that they have Luka Doncic and Dennis Smith Jr. running the pick-and-roll. I know the value at +333 isn’t tremendously better than Drummond’s but DJ just came from the Clippers’ abyss and he led the NBA in rebounds per 48 minutes last season so that’s who I’ll be laying my money on.

Gilles’ Pick: DeAndre Jordan at +333

Odds to Lead NBA in Rebounds for 2018-19 Season
  • Andre Drummond +125
  • DeAndre Jordan +333
  • Karl-Anthony Towns +800
  • Anthony Davis +850
  • Rudy Gobert +850
  • Dwight Howard +950
  • Hassan Whiteside +950
  • Joel Embiid +1500
  • Clint Capela +2200
  • Kevin Love +2500
  • Nikola Jokic +2500
  • Deandre Ayton +2500
  • Enes Kanter +2500
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo +5000
  • Russell Westbrook +5000
  • LeBron James +5000
Odds as of October 16 at  Bovada

Wall Has Too Much Competition for Assists Title

With all due respect to John Wall, he should not be the favorite to lead the NBA in assists. Wall is coming off an abbreviated campaign in which he missed 41 games and didn’t average double-digit assists for the first time in four seasons. He has never topped this category and the dysfunction in Washington last season has put a bad taste in my mouth for Wall and the Wizards’ fortunes for the 2018-19 season. I still think he finishes in the top three in this category but for the +150 value, it needs to be a sure thing to get my wager.

My pick to lead the league in dimes is Ben Simmons at +600. The Sixers’ second-year superstar came out of the gate last season by averaging eight assists per game. But his play ramped up through the year as he was averaging double-digit assists in March and April, which coincidentally was the time that the Sixers hit their stride and became a top-four team in the Eastern Conference. Players with Simmons’ level of talent make huge strides in their second and third NBA seasons so, at +600, he’s the best value on the board based on my projections.

Gilles’ Pick: Ben Simmons at +600

Odds to Lead NBA in Assists for 2018-19 Season
  • John Wall +150
  • Russell Westbrook +270
  • Ben Simmons +500
  • Chris Paul +650
  • James Harden +750
  • Lonzo Ball +1100
  • Ricky Rubio +1400
  • Rajon Rondo +1400
  • Kyle Lowry +1600
  • Draymond Green +2000
  • Trae Young +2500
  • Jeff Teague +3500
  • Nikola Jokic +6000
Odds as of October 16 at  Bovada