The best NBA players typically lead the league each season in statistics like points, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and bettors should expect to see many of the same category leaders in the 2022-23 season according to the latest betting odds for NBA stat props.
The best basketball betting sites have unveiled their annual NBA stat leader odds for the season, which begins October 19. Right now, BetUS has Joel Embiid tabbed as the points per game favorite (+200) and James Harden (+275) chalked as the projected NBA assists leader.
For the big-man statistics like rebounds, the favorite to clean the most glass is Nikola Jokic at +135.
Let’s break down why each player is the favorite in NBA stat leader odds and analyze where we see our best bets on the board:
NBA Points Per Game Odds
Odds as of October 3 at BetUS
Why Is Embiid (+200) Favored In The Odds To Lead The NBA In Scoring?
The Sixers big man is the reigning NBA scoring leader, which sets a strong baseline for him to repeat in 2022-23. His 30.6 PPG a season ago represented a career-high mark, besting Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.9), Luka Doncic (28.4) and Trae Young (28.4) by a solid mark.
Embiid was by far the highest-scoring big man in basketball. As teams around the league fully embrace the benefits of a stretch-four and stretch-five offensive set, there’s room for a center or power forward to repeat as the scoring champion. The oddsboard thinks Embiid, a decent MVP candidate, can achieve it. At +200, that’s not terrible value, but we see more money to be made betting away from the chalk.
NBA Points Per Game Odds: Best Bet
Kevin Durant (+650)
I know what you’re thinking. Durant is 34 years old, his athleticism is waning and he just spent an entire offseason playing the diva card with the Nets front office. Sure, let’s acknowledge all that. But for what the “Slim Reaper” leaves to be desired off the court, he makes up for with cold, hard buckets.
Durant has won the NBA single-season scoring title four times in his career. The last time he did it was 2013-14 – a very long time ago – but KD saw an uptick in scoring with Brooklyn in 2021-22. Durant played in just 55 games a year ago, but his 29.9 points per game would’ve ranked second, tied with Giannis. That’s a pretty darn good year.
KD’s 2022-23 season will look a lot like last year’s campaign. Ben Simmons will add to the mix, but he’s unlikely to take many scoring opportunities away from Durant. In fact, Simmons’ presence and passing ability might actually increase Durant’s scoring chances as the small forward logs tons of minutes.
NBA Assists Per Game Odds
Odds as of October 3 at BetUS
Why Is James Harden (+275) Favored In The Odds To Lead The NBA In Assists?
Harden is a dime machine. The 33-year-old has averaged at least 10 assists per game in back-to-back seasons and led the league in 2015-16 with the Rockets when he put up 11.2 assists per game.
Now on the floor with Embiid, the projected highest scorer, it only seems logical to line Harden up as the favorite to rack up assists as he feeds his teammate in Philly. Harden’s days as a No. 1 option are over, but he’s settled in nicely as the setup guy, a role the sportsbooks expect him to maintain in 2022-23.
NBA Assists Per Game Odds: Best Bet
Trae Young (+1100)
Frankly, it’s shocking to see Young at such steep odds to lead the NBA in assists per game. “Ice Trae” has done nothing but dish out the basketball since he entered the league four years ago. He’s only had one season with an average of below 9.0 assists per game and he hit a career-high mark with 9.7 dimes in 2021-22.
Young is a player who has improved every year. We saw him become a much more efficient scorer last season, shaving a couple of PPG off his career high but improving his field-goal percentage in the process. The exponential growth should apply to the assist column, too.
While the Hawks aren’t packed with scorers to dish to, we see a team that has the potential to step it up during the regular season. Young was third in assists a year ago. At +1100, we think bettors should be all over him for this assists title in 2022-23.
NBA Rebounds Per Game Odds
|Wendell Carter Jr.||+5000|
Odds as of October 3 at BetUS
Why Is Nikola Jokic (+135) Favored In The Odds To Lead The NBA In Rebounds?
This one is interesting. Jokic is a very talented rebounder, having averaged 10 or more boards per game in four of his seven NBA seasons, but he’s not the reigning champion in this department. The Serbian came close to taking the rebounding title, though Rudy Gobert bested him with a remarkable 14.7 boards per game.
Gobert isn’t far behind on the odds (+325), where it appears the sportsbooks expect his transition to a crowded Minnesota front court to negatively impact his rebound potential, subsequently making Jokic the narrow favorite.
NBA Rebounds Per Game Odds: Best Bet
Rudy Gobert (+325)
It’s a bit lame to cherry-pick from the top of the board, but there’s honestly not a better pick right now than Gobert, even if +325 isn’t out-of-the-park value.
The Frenchman has cemented himself among all-time NBA rebounding kings, and since 2019, no other player has come close to Gobert’s 3,885 total boards (Jokic is second at 3,375). He’s been an absolute menace on the glass for three straight seasons, averaging over 13 rebounds per game in each campaign.
The biggest X factor in this pick comes from how he is utilized in the Timberwolves system. Will he get bodied out by fellow big man Karl-Anthony Towns? Possibly, but not to the point that he stumbles off his rebound throne. Gobert relies heavily on offensive boards. We expect he’ll keep that pace up, as KAT isn’t known to be as furious on the offensive glass.
Who is favored to lead the NBA in points per game in 2022-23?
Joel Embiid (+200) is the betting favorite to lead the NBA in points per game during the 2022-23 season. He's followed on the odds board by Giannis Antetokounmpo (+275) and Luka Doncic (+550).
Who is favored to lead the NBA in assists per game in 2022-23?
James Harden (+125) is the betting favorite to lead the NBA in assists per game during the 2022-23 season. He's followed on the odds board by Chris Paul (+150) and Tyrese Haliburton (+350).
Who is favored to lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2022-23?
Nikola Jokic (+125) is the betting favorite to lead the NBA in assists per game during the 2022-23 season. He's followed on the odds board by Rudy Gobert (+150) and Domantas Sabonis (+375).