Nuggets vs. Mavericks Picks & Odds: December 23, 2025

All but two NBA teams are taking the hardwood for a loaded schedule on Tuesday, and one of the marquee nationally-televised matchups pits the Denver Nuggets (-7.5, -110) against the Dallas Mavericks (+7.5, -110), with both teams competing on no rest. Denver enters having lost just a single time in its last eight games, while the Mavericks are losers of three of their last four.

Here's an expert pick and player prop for this matchup at the American Airlines Center on December 23, including another OVER on a scoring prop for a Mavericks forward who has been providing plenty of them as of late.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks Odds Tonight

Matchup: Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8 p.m. ET

Team	Spread	Money	Total
Denver Nuggets	-7.5 (-110)	-290	O 238.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks	+7.5 (-110)	+235	U 238.5 (-110)

Nuggets vs. Mavericks Expert Picks Tonight

Dallas Mavericks +7.5 (-110), UNDER 238.5 Points (-110)

Tuesday marks the second of four meetings between the Nuggets and Dallas this season, with the Mavericks prevailing on Dec. 1 by 10 points (131-121) when the two sides squared off at Ball Arena. Only the San Antonio Spurs (8-1) have a better win-loss record than Denver (7-1) since then, while Dallas has treaded water at 4-4. Anthony Davis has only missed two of the last 11 games after sitting 14 in a row from Nov. 1 through Nov. 24 with a left calf strain, but his player props aren't listed as of writing, with oddsmakers perhaps presuming that he'll be held out on the second night of a back-to-back slate as the Mavericks will be competing on Christmas Day against the Golden State Warriors. I have no reason to believe that as of yet, so I'm moving forward with my wagers that it's all hands on deck for both teams.

If that's indeed the case, then despite the fact that it's coming off a loss to the 8-22 New Orleans Pelicans (they've now won five in a row, though), betting Dallas to cover considering it's already defeated Denver in the Mile High State is at least sensible. The Mavericks are an impressive 8-2 ATS this season when entering as an underdog at home, and 7-4 ATS when an underdog of at least 7.5 points. The Nuggets have covered four of their last five games overall, but all but one came in their own backyard, with the lone away cover being against one of the league's worst teams on the spread at home (3-10, 28th) in the Sacramento Kings. Now Denver did defeat Dallas both times on the road in 2024-25, but Cooper Flagg obviously wasn't around at the time having not been drafted, and the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis blockbuster hadn't occurred yet, so Doncic was still out with injury. The Mavericks' defense allows 109.9 points per 100 possessions at home, good enough for seventh overall, and being 4-2 ATS on no rest proves that tired legs aren't a death knell for them. Again, as long as Davis is out there (5-3 in last eight games with him), Dallas will have a strong shot to at least cover.

In the total market, a combined score of 238.5 points seems high considering the circumstances of both teams playing the second of three games in four nights. When the number is that high this season, the Mavericks have gone UNDER three out of a possible four times. While the Nuggets rank second in this department with 18 OVERs in 28 tries and 3-1 O/U on no rest, they're also human, with Odds Shark's computer picks also projecting an UNDER on Tuesday.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks Player Prop Tonight

Naji Marshall OVER 13.5 Points (+100 at DraftKings)

Betting the OVER on Naji Marshall's 14.5-point prop against New Orleans on Monday proved profitable when the 27-year-old forward contributed 15 points on 7-of-10 shooting in just under 30 minutes of action. The number has dropped to 13.5 points versus the Nuggets, and Marshall has now gone OVER that mark in eight-straight appearances and nine of his last 10 since entering the starting lineup on Nov. 29. His one UNDER was against Denver to kick off the month, though, but that also came with his fewest shot attempts at seven as a starter, thanks in large part to point guard Ryan Nembhard going off for 28 points on 12-of-14 shooting. Nembhard has finished with seven or fewer points in four of the last five games, so perhaps the biggest reason why Marshall couldn't go OVER in that aforementioned matchup is no longer a factor to soak up looks.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks Betting Trends Tonight

*All trends courtesy of Outlier

Peyton Watson has failed to exceed 11.5 points in four of his last five games on the road (12.4 points/game average).
Ryan Nembhard has failed to exceed 13.5 points + assists in four of his last five games (13.4 points + assists/game average).
Cooper Flagg has exceeded 8.5 rebounds + assists in four of his last five games (11.8 rebounds + assists/game average).
Anthony Davis has failed to exceed 5.5 1Q points in six of his last seven games at home (3.1 1Q points/game average).