The 2022-23 NBA playoff picture is taking shape. As always, the race on the fringes is very tight, and there will be plenty of jockeying for a postseason spot or a berth into the play-in tournament.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at each NBA team’s playoff chances the rest of the way.
NBA Playoff Picture: Eastern Conference
| Team | Record | Playoff Chances |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 43-17 | >99% |
| Boston Celtics | 44-18 | >99% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 39-21 | >99% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 39-25 | >99% |
| New York Knicks | 36-27 | 95% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 34-26 | 82% |
| Miami Heat | 33-29 | 80% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 31-30 | 63% |
| Toronto Raptors | 30-32 | 41% |
| Washington Wizards | 28-32 | 21% |
| Chicago Bulls | 28-33 | 15% |
| Indiana Pacers | 27-35 | 2% |
The bolded teams are in playoff position. As such, those teams have higher playoff chances. If you’re looking for a more precise outlook on the NBA playoff picture, check out our NBA playoff odds or championship odds.
Brooklyn Nets Playoff Chances
34-26, 6th in the East, 82% chance to make playoffs
I want to narrow in on the Nets because their championship odds fell off a cliff after the Kevin Durant trade. After KD went to the Suns, the Nets fell from +2500 to +8000 and have gone 1-4 SU. The wheels are falling off, yet the Nets have an 82 percent chance to make the playoffs. What’s giving them hope?
Mikal Bridges has looked smooth since donning a Nets uniform, but Brooklyn might not stand a chance down the stretch. The Nets have the fifth-most difficult remaining schedule, including two games each against the Celtics and Nuggets, which makes things extra challenging. The playoff percentages favor the Nets, but if I was betting on this futures market, I’d fade Brooklyn.
Toronto Raptors Playoff Chances
30-32, 9th in the East, 41% chance to make playoffs
Raptors fans have been put through the bloody ringer this year. From a potential rebuild on the horizon to a half-baked buy-in at the trade deadline, Toronto hasn’t maintained a clear direction in 2022-23. Now the Raps might make the playoffs? Man.
The 41 percent likelihood seems very accurate. The Raptors have the second-hardest remaining schedule in the NBA, but Toronto has gone 4-2 since the deadline and looks, finally, to be headed in the right direction. It might be too little too late, though, as time is running out. I believe the Raptors can still make the postseason (or win out via the play-ins) but I’d need good value to bet on it.
NBA Playoff Picture: Western Conference
| Team | Record | Playoff Chances |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 43-19 | >99% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 36-23 | >99% |
| Sacramento Kings | 35-25 | 88% |
| Phoenix Suns | 33-29 | 90% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 33-30 | 78% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 32-30 | 89% |
| Golden State Warriors | 31-30 | 76% |
| Utah Jazz | 31-31 | 25% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 31-32 | 46% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 30-32 | 37% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 29-31 | 15% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 29-32 | 50% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 28-32 | 5% |
There’s way more parity in the Western Conference compared to the East, and as a result, the playoff chances are all skewed.
Utah Jazz Playoff Chances
31-31, 8th in the West, 41% chance to make playoffs
Am I missing something?
The Jazz’s roster has outperformed expectations this season — Lauri Markkanen is a dynamite player — and Utah can easily ride the hot hand into a pre-playoff tournament. On top of all that, the Jazz have the 11th-easiest remaining schedule in the NBA.
Utah is hanging in there at the No. 8 spot with a big chunk of games to go. There are a lot of fringe playoff candidates but the Jazz are among the most capable squads. I’d recommend a futures bet on Utah to make the postseason.
Los Angeles Lakers Playoff Chances
29-32, 12th in the West, 50% chance to make playoffs
The Lakers are gonna Laker, and the market will always be pretty bullish on them. Yet, with a LeBron James injury that’s expected to keep their star out for multiple weeks, I’m willing to source the largest megaphone I can find and scream FADE! at the top of my lungs.
Los Angeles’ playoff chances are grossly overinflated. I like the Jazz or even the Thunder to make the playoffs before the Lakers.
