Grizzlies Favored to Roll Past Spurs on Wednesday Night

The Memphis Grizzlies know what it’s like to lose in the NBA play-in round, and they’re determined not to suffer a similar fate Wednesday as they host the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference’s No. 9 vs 10 game. Memphis (38-34 SU, 41-30-1 ATS) fell to Portland in last year’s win-or-go-home format but is a slight favorite against the visiting Spurs (33-39 SU, 38-32-2 ATS).

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Grizzlies kicked off the play-in betting cycle as 4-point favorites, and that’s where they remain at the majority of sportsbooks. The total, on the other hand, has plummeted 2.5 points in most spots after Sportsbook at 224.5.

San Antonio News & Notes

COVID-19 touched just about every team in the NBA, but few were as adversely impacted as the Spurs. Health and safety protocols kept the team off the court for an entire week, forcing them into a backloaded schedule that has left them as one of the most fatigued teams in the NBA heading into the postseason. They’re also without talented guard Derrick White, who’s out with an ankle injury.

The key to victory for the Spurs: figuring out how to make hay from beyond the arc. San Antonio comes into the play-in round as one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league, ranked 23rd in success rate and 29th in three-point makes per game. Memphis ranks slightly below average in both three-point shooting rate against and in average treys allowed per game.

Memphis News & Notes

The Grizzlies have the edge according to the oddsmakers, but they’ll need their two best players to step up as they have for most of the season. Big man Jonas Valanciunas enjoyed a breakout season, averaging 17.1 points per game while ranking third in the NBA in rebounds (12.5) and adding 49 double-doubles. He had 15 points and 13 boards in his lone encounter with the Spurs.

Valanciunas is good, but he can’t do it alone – and that’s where Ja Morant comes in. The No. 2 overall pick in 2019 overcame an early-season injury and some crippling inconsistency to average 19.1 points and 7.4 assists per game, and was positively electric against the Spurs this season with averages of 25.3 points and 9.3 assists in their three meetings.

Betting Pick: Grizzlies -4 (-110)

Memphis has a decided edge in the post and from deep, and those two advantages should help them convert the cover.