Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines have been declawed by Michigan State since his arrival at the university but the Wolverines did win the last meeting between the two teams at Spartan Stadium in 2016. An outstanding stat, especially from a betting perspective, is not the straight-up losses, but rather the 0-10 ATS record for No. 6 Michigan entering Saturday’s game.
- Michigan is 2-8 SU and 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games vs Michigan State.
- Michigan State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games at home.
- Michigan is 6-0 SU in its last six games (avg. winning margin: 27.67).
Michigan vs Michigan State Game Center
Wolverines Looked Great vs Wisconsin
Karan Higdon had his fifth straight game over 100 yards rushing and Shea Patterson had potentially his most important game for Michigan in the Week 7 win over the Badgers. The Wolverines offense was 7-for-16 on third down and dominated the possession battle, 37 minutes to 23.
As impressive as the offense was, the defense was dominant. Wisconsin managed just 283 total yards from scrimmage and Alex Hornibrook was held to a mere seven completions while being picked off twice.
Spartans Back in the Top 25
Michigan State, out of the AP Top 25 for a week, returns at No. 24 after an upset win over Penn State that sent the Nittany Lions tumbling 10 spots to No. 18 in the AP poll. Michigan State relies heavily, almost solely, on the passing game. The Spartans have 1,629 yards in the air compared to just 738 on the ground.
Brian Lewerke’s 225 pass attempts are tied for 18th in the FBS but his 60 percent completion rate is tied for 76th. Meanwhile, their 738 yards on the ground are 117th out of 130 FBS teams. This is not great news for the Spartans as Michigan has the No. 1 pass defense at 129.1 yards against per game.
My Pick for This Game
I don’t think this game needs to be over-thought. The reality is that it’s the 34th-ranked passing attack with a non-existent running game to support it vs a defense that’s allowing just 15.4 points per game and is No. 1 in the nation vs the pass.
Lewerke has thrown for more yards than Shea Patterson but Patterson’s QB rating is 154.8 to Lewerke’s 124.8. The Wolverines are 23rd in the country with 38.1 points per game and I expect Karan Higdon to continue his stellar season.
Michigan State has the top-rated rush defense in the country, but it hasn’t really been tested by a top offense, and when it was last week, Miles Sanders ran for 162 yards and a touchdown.
At -7, I think Michigan breaks its 10-game ATS loss streak and goes to 7-1 on the year, looking really strong in the Big Ten heading into Penn State next week.
Before seeing the Sportsbook total of 45, I was confident in an UNDER bet on this game. The number has swiftly moved down to 41.5 and that feels like a bit of a trap for a college football game. 41.5 is tied for the lowest total of any NCAA game this year - McNeese State and BYU closed at 41.5 on September 22. BYU won the game 30-3.
