Mississippi State vs Texas Odds & Picks Week 5: Longhorns Can Handle Large Spreads

The Texas Longhorns' point spreads this year have been huge: 32 against Colorado State, 34.5 against Texas-San Antonio, 44.5 against Louisiana-Monroe. They've covered all of them, and face another big number in their inaugural SEC game this week.

It hardly seems like an apt introduction to the nation’s toughest football conference. Mississippi State, which thus far looks like the worst team in the league, is a 38-point underdog in Austin on Saturday afternoon. While there remain questions about the Longhorns’ quarterback situation, it probably won’t matter this week against the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State vs Texas Odds

Matchup Page: Mississippi State vs Texas, 4:15 pm ET

Odds as of September 23

Mississippi State vs Texas Picks – Week 5

Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. Mississippi State was hammered at home 41-17 by Toledo out of the MAC, and then handled 45-28 last week by a Florida program on the verge of firing its coach. The issues are primarily on defense, where the Bulldogs are allowing 30.75 points and 416 yards per game. MSU’s only victory is over an FCS program, they haven’t covered against an FBS foe, and they lost their starting quarterback to an injury last week.

Texas, meanwhile, is just pounding people, racking up a 4-0 ATS record against an average spread of 29.5 points. Starting quarterback Quinn Ewers has been out since suffering an oblique injury against UTSA two weeks ago, and ESPN’s Pete Thamel has indicated he might not return until Oklahoma on Oct. 12. But the Longhorns have kept it rolling behind backup Arch Manning, who’s tossed six TD passes over the past two weeks.

Manning would be a starter at almost any other program in America, so there’s not a serious drop-off here—especially against the 111th-ranked defense in the FBS. Sure, the spread is a big one. But it’s hard to bet against Texas given what they’ve done all season to this point, no matter who is behind center.

Mississippi State vs Texas Week 5 Pick: Texas -38 (-110)

Texas has scored 50 or more points three times this season, and has gone OVER the total in two straight—against UTSA, eclipsing the number all by itself. But this is the highest total the Longhorns have faced thus far, and Mississippi State is likely to start a freshman quarterback who was 7-for-13 for 100 yards against Florida.

Mississippi State vs Texas Week 5 Pick: UNDER 61.5

*picks made as of Monday, September 23 at 1:00 pm ET

Mississippi State vs Texas News

While Ewers has dominated Texas injury news, the Longhorns were also without starting safety Derek Williams last week against ULM. Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury, and his status for Mississippi State was uncertain early in the week. The news was worse for MSU, which lost quarterback Blake Shapen for the season after he suffered a shoulder injury against Florida. Freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. is positioned to make his first start in Austin.

Mississippi State vs Texas Prop Pick: Jaydon Blue Anytime TD

With Ewers out against ULM, the Longhorns pounded the ball on the ground behind the junior Blue, who finished with three rushing touchdowns, another receiving score, and 127 combined yards. He also caught a touchdown pass against Michigan, proving himself an adept receiver out of the backfield.

Mississippi State vs Texas Betting Trends