Navy Midshipmen vs UCF Knights

Not only are the Central Florida Knights confounding fans, bettors and experts alike – they’re also impressing oddsmakers as they look to extend their winning streak to an NCAA-best 22 games Saturday against visiting Navy. The Knights, who ran their run to 21 with a 52-40 triumph over visiting Temple last week, have covered five of their previous six games despite being favored by double digits in all five of those ATS victories.

That doesn’t bode well for the visiting Midshipmen, who were thumped 42-0 by Cincinnati last weekend as a 12-point underdog to fall to 1-8 ATS on the season. Navy’s triple-option attack has sputtered of late, producing 17 or fewer points in three of its last five games, and the defense has fallen completely apart, having allowed in excess of 40 points in each of the past three games. Host UCF is a 25.5-point favorite entering the week, with the total set at 63.

Navy vs UCF Game Center

Anatomy of a Winning Streak

Central Florida might not get the respect it deserves from those responsible for the College Football Playoff rankings, but any team able to win 21 consecutive games deserves some props. And the Knights have been full value for the majority of the streak, posting an average victory margin of better than 23.5 points while going a red-hot 14-6-1 ATS over that span.

That dominance has been even more pronounced at Spectrum Stadium, where the Knights have reeled off 12 consecutive wins by an average margin of 26.8 points since their last home defeat Nov. 19, 2016, against Tulsa. An unstoppable offense has been the main catalyst for their home success, as they’ve scored at least 38 points in all 12 of those games.

With Navy having hemorrhaged points over its past three games, and the Knights the most prolific home team in the country outside Alabama, it’s hard to see UCF not surpassing its team point total in this one.

This Could Get Ugly

When the triple option works, it’s a thing of beauty. But when it doesn’t – or when the opposing team racks up enough points that running the ball is no longer feasible – things can get downright nasty. And that’s where the Midshipmen will be up against it, as they boast what is arguably the worst passing attack in all of Division I.

While Navy doesn’t go to the air often – its 16.3 percent pass play rate against FBS foes ranks fourth-lowest in the nation – it struggles mightily when it does. The Midshipmen have completed fewer than 47 percent of their passes on the season, the worst rate in the country. They also rank dead last in passing yards per game (62.8) and third-last in sack rate against (13.3 percent).

Whatever oddsmakers install for Navy’s team total, the recommended play is on the UNDER. UCF is primed for a big offensive showing, and once the Midshipmen turn to the passing game, this one could get ugly in a hurry.

My Pick: UCF for the Cover

By now, you probably have a good idea which way I’m leaning in this one. The Knights have been incredible in their own stadium, and will look to punish each of their remaining opponents in hopes of getting the attention of the CFP committee. And that’s very bad news for the Midshipmen, who have looked completely out of sorts for the better part of the last five weeks.

It’s reasonable to play contrarian here and suggest that the Knights might not cover this one. After all, they’re just 1-3 ATS in their past four games as a favorite of 25-plus points, and they struggled to contain the Midshipmen in last year’s 31-21 victory, surrendering 248 rushing yards on 48 carries (4.2 YPC) while allowing them to go 9-for-17 on third down.

But these teams are headed in completely opposite directions – and with UCF enjoying home-field advantage, I don’t see this game being particularly close. Take UCF not only to extend its winning streak, but to continue its strong cover run.