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NCAAF Free Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers

NCAAF Free Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers

Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers (-29.5, O/U 67.5)

Heisman contender Mac Jones and the Crimson Tide will take on an LSU Tigers team that looks nothing like last year’s national championship squad. LSU saw an SEC-record 13 players get chosen in the 2020 NFL Draft, depleting a roster that set NCAA records en route to a 15-0 mark in 2019.

The Crimson Tide have kept on rolling in 2020 on the back of Jones, who is flourishing in Steve Sarkisian’s offense with 12.0 yards per pass attempt and a sparkling 23-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Sportsbooks are making Alabama a hefty favorite in this one, currently listing the Tide as a 29.5-point favorite in Death Valley. It’s hard to believe the spread could be this large following LSU’s 46-41 victory over Alabama just 13 months ago, but it is 2020 after all.

Our NCAAF model still gives an edge to ’Bama in this one despite the large spread, projecting a final score of 52.8-17.8 in favor of the Crimson Tide. With a projected five-touchdown victory for the visiting Tide, our model suggests a $109 wager on ALABAMA -29.5 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NCAAF picks are 503-470 ATS (51.7%) and 545-404 on O/Us (57.4%) since the start of 2019, profiting +72.0 units, or $7,200 for an average $100 bettor. Head over to predictionmachine.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to every NCAAF projection.

Why will Alabama Cover the Spread?

  • Mac Jones and the Crimson Tide should be able to throw all over this LSU defense. Alabama sports the best passing offense of any Power Five team, posting an impressive 11.7 yards per pass attempt on the season. The Tigers have been a sieve on defense, allowing 9.3 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 121st out of 127 FBS teams. Jones has been extremely efficient, completing an SEC-best 76.2 percent of his passes (second overall behind Justin Fields), posting an outrageous 12.0 yards per pass attempt, and boasting a near-immaculate touchdown-to-interception ratio.
  • LSU has posted solid passing yardage totals thanks to its propensity to play from behind (18th with 313 pass yards per game), but the Tigers have struggled on a per-play basis. Their 7.6 yards per pass attempt ranks 56th in the country, while Alabama has held opponents to a measly 6.6 yards per pass attempt, which puts the Tide atop the SEC and 26th among FBS teams.
  • The LSU rushing attack has been non-existent this season, posting a paltry 3.2 yards per carry (110th). Facing Alabama with no semblance of a running game will allow the Crimson Tide to hone in on LSU’s passing attack, which could spell trouble for backup QB TJ Finley. Finley has completed under 60 percent of his passes and has thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) in his four appearances.

Crimson Tide vs Tigers: How to Bet the Total

This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 67.5 points. Prediction Machine’s projected score totals 70.6 points (52.8-17.8), giving us a solid edge on the OVER in this game. Our model recommends a $78 wager on OVER 67.5 for an average $100 bettor.