The 8-4 Ohio Bobcats bring their potent offense to Toyota Stadium to collide with the defensive-minded 7-5 San Diego State Aztecs in the 2018 Frisco Bowl. This is the first-ever meeting between these two schools and San Diego State is competing in its ninth straight bowl game, while Ohio is making its fourth straight bowl appearance. The Bobcats are a 3-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 54 points.
- Ohio is 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 games (avg. winning margin: 26.29).
- San Diego State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in four of Ohio’s last five games (avg. combined score: 68.6).
San Diego State vs Ohio Game Center
Aztecs back into Bowl Season
San Diego State had a terrific start to the season, jumping out to a 6-1 record that included a triumph over then-No. 23 Arizona State, with the one defeat coming against then-No. 13 Stanford in Week 1. However, the Aztecs stumbled in the back half of the year, dropping four of their last five games, including their last three. During the six-game winning streak, they were holding opponents to a measly 16.3 points per game, but in the most recent skid, their defense has shown holes as their foes are piling up 26.4 points per game.
Overall, their defense is surrendering 21.8 points per game which ranks in a tie for 29th-best in the nation and they are led by junior linebacker Kyahva Tezion. The California native had 119 combined tackles (tied for 22nd-most in the NCAA) and nine sacks (tied for 23rd-most). Offensively, it has been a struggle for San Diego State, which averages the 18th-fewest points per game in college football at 22.3, topping 25 points just four times all year.
However, a bright spot was the emergence of junior running back Juwan Washington after last year’s lead back, Rashaad Penny, left for the NFL. Washington had 180 carries for 870 yards and 10 touchdowns, missing four games in the middle of the season with a fractured collarbone. Throwing the ball for the Aztecs is a tandem of senior QB Christian Chapman and junior QB Ryan Agnew as the two played parts of the last four games of the season. Chapman got the bulk of the snaps, tossing 549 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception, while Agnew hurled 366 yards with three TDs and one pick.
Bobcats pummeled teams down the stretch
Ohio is competing in its fourth straight bowl game after putting together an 8-4 record, including claiming victory in five of its last six games. The Bobcats had some issues when they packed up and headed out on the road, going just 2-4 SU, but their average losing margin was only 5.75 points. However, at home, they went 6-0 with an average winning margin of 25.17. Two of their four losses – at Virginia and at Cincinnati – came against teams that were at some point ranked in the Top 25.
The offense was led by a three-headed monster in senior wide receiver Papi White, senior running back A.J. Ouellette and junior QB Nathan Rourke. White snagged 58 balls for 897 yards with nine TDs, Ouellette rushed for 1,142 yards with 12 TDs and Rourke threw for 2,225 yards with 22 TDs and seven interceptions while also rushing for 816 yards and 13 more touchdowns. Overall, Ohio averaged 41.2 points per game to rank 10th in the nation, including the eighth-most rushing yards per game at 262.2.
Additionally, its defense has great big-play ability, ranking fifth in college football with a 1.08 turnover margin, including the 14th-most interceptions (15) and the second-most fumble recoveries (15). The Bobcats could be without sophomore cornerback Marlin Brooks, who missed the final two games of the season with a shoulder injury. He had an interception and three forced fumbles this year.
Should you be on the OVER?
The OVER was trending through the final stages of the season for both of these schools and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 54 points. San Diego State went OVER in three of its last five games, but only once did it go OVER 54 points all season, in the final game vs Hawaii. Meanwhile, Ohio went OVER in four of its last five games with 10 of its 12 matches going OVER 54 points this year.
The Bobcats have scored the 10th-most points per game this season at 41.2, including averaging 48.5 points through the final six games of the year, while the Aztecs defense showed some vulnerabilities by surrendering 26.4 points per game through their final five contests. Ohio’s offense has been unstoppable recently and San Diego State’s defense has been attacked recently. I think we are in store for an OVER.
My take on Ohio vs San Diego State
I like Ohio to cover the 3-point spread. The Bobcats’ losses this year came against very tough teams in the MAC champs, Northern Illinois, Top 25 teams Virginia and Cincinnati and a narrow 30-28 defeat to their rival Miami-Ohio, with an average losing margin of 5.75. Meanwhile, their wins have been by an average of 24.6 points and they have the 10th-best offense in the nation.
Additionally, San Diego State averages the 18th-fewest points per game and it has a defensive mindset, but through its final five matches it gave up an average of 26.4 points per game. I think Ohio covers the 3-point spread easily.
