The Clemson Tigers are exactly where they want to be heading into the final week of the regular season – entrenched in the top two of the College Football Playoff with an unblemished record and a home tune-up ahead of the ACC championship December 1 vs Pittsburgh. But Saturday’s game is no cakewalk, as the Tigers face a South Carolina team that has ratcheted up the offense in recent weeks, having averaged a whopping 42.7 points over its previous three games.
But the visiting Gamecocks shouldn’t expect to maintain that torrid scoring pace Saturday, as they tangle with a Clemson defense limiting opponents to an NCAA-low 12.1 points per game. And the Tigers have saved their best work for the stretch run, having not allowed more than 13 points in any of their past six games. South Carolina knows full well what that Clemson defense is capable of, having scored just 17 total points in their last two meetings. Clemson is a heavy favorite at 25 points heading into this game.
- South Carolina is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs ACC opponents.
- Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of South Carolina’s last 14 games on the road.
South Carolina vs Clemson Game Center
Clemson Covering at Will
The Tigers aren’t just running the table – they’re providing spread bettors with a nice profit as well. Clemson entered last weekend’s game against Duke having covered five consecutive times and came within a point of a sixth straight cover in a 29-point victory. Five of their last six wins have been by 29 or more points, including three victories by 49 or more points.
The Gamecocks might not be able to hang with one of the most complete teams in the nation, but they’ve traditionally performed well as an underdog over the past two years. South Carolina is an impressive 11-4 ATS in its previous 15 games as a ’dog, a stretch that includes seven straight-up victories. But one of those non-covers came in last year’s 34-10 loss to Clemson at +13.5.
Clemson might not keep its foot on the gas in this one, but it should still have plenty in the tank to cover the spread despite how the Gamecocks have fared in the underdog role. The Tigers have been a spread bettor’s dream since the beginning of October and should continue that trend Saturday.
Will the Gamecocks Find the End Zone?
South Carolina will probably wish it had saved some scoring from its previous three games for Saturday’s trip to Death Valley. The Gamecocks have asserted themselves well on the offensive end this season, but they haven’t faced anything like this Clemson defense – and when it comes to playing at Clemson Memorial Stadium, the home team has been downright impenetrable.
Dating back to their stunning 45-42 loss to Pitt on November 12, 2016, Clemson has allowed more than 20 points just once in its past 14 home games while limiting teams to single digits nine times over that stretch. Not surprisingly, the Tigers won all 14 of those games straight up while going a modest 7-6-1 ATS, primarily because they were favored by 30-plus points seven times in that span.
The Gamecocks will likely struggle to reach their team total in this one, even after piling up the points in the three games prior to Saturday. The UNDER is the recommended play as Clemson looks to flex its defensive muscles in its regular-season finale.
My Pick: Points at a Premium
There’s little doubt that this one should be a one-sided affair – but the big question among totals bettors is whether the Clemson offense will unleash another offensive barrage to close out the regular-season calendar. Barring a rout of the Panthers in the ACC title game, this is the last chance for the Tigers to give some of their starters a breather should they get up big – and they will.
Look for Clemson to do the majority of its scoring in the first half before moving into ball control mode in an effort to keep everyone as healthy as possible. The Gamecocks likely won’t put much of a dent in the Clemson defense, so the total decision here is almost totally dependent on the home team’s scoring prowess – and I believe they’ll take it easy in the latter stages.
I recommend taking the UNDER on the game total, based almost exclusively on what looks like an obvious game script.
