Clemson in Week 2, Alabama in Week 4. “How do you like me now?” asks the NCAA football schedule makers to the Texas A&M Aggies. Despite their Week 2 success against Clemson (a two-point loss late despite controversy), A&M opens as a 27-point underdog against the top-ranked team in the nation at Tuscaloosa.
That spread may be more about the offensive prowess of the Crimson Tide than the newly minted 22nd-ranked team’s early success. The thing is, though, the spread is historic in its size. Searching back through the OddsShark database (beginning in 1998), there’s only one other game between two ranked teams with a spread this big: Florida State -30 vs Duke in 2013.
- Alabama is 20-0 SU in its last 20 games at home (avg. winning margin: 31.75).
- Texas A&M is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
- Texas A&M lost by two points to Clemson on a last-minute play in Week 2.
Texas A&M vs Alabama Game Center
The Crimson Tide ARE Rolling
Alabama, the top-ranked team in the nation, has been handed unbelievably big spreads early this season and has eclipsed them with ease. So, excuse anyone for believing that the Crimson Tide will do it again at home against Texas A&M this week. The 27-point spread is the second biggest they’ve faced this year, but the average winning margin in Alabama’s last 20 home games is 31.75 and the Tide have won their three games this season by a combined 170-28 score.
Nick Saban’s offense has been unbelievable, but the defense has kept the ball in their hands by allowing 300 yards and 9.3 points against per game. With the ball in his hands so often, Tua Tagovailoa has compiled a sickening 233.3 QB rating on 12.92 yards per attempt and a 72 percent completion rate.
When Saban feels like taking it easy on the opposition, he will go to “backup” QB Jalen Hurts. Hurts has thrown for four touchdowns and a 182.3 QB rating. Jerry Jeudy has been the favorite target of the quarterbacks, making 11 receptions for 287 yards – with six of those 11 for touchdowns.
There was a lot of talk about Ole Miss being able to cover or potentially upset the Tide in Week 3. Alabama won 62-7.
Can A&M Cover?
The question is how much better than Clemson is Alabama? The Aggies had an outstanding effort as 15-point dogs at home vs the Tigers and nearly won the game while staying within the spread the entire contest. Twenty-seven points is a very, very large spread against a ranked school, but there’s just no evidence so far that Alabama isn’t at least three-plus scores better than the rest of the teams in the FBS.
Kellen Mond showed absolutely no fear in Week 2 vs Clemson and kept fighting back every time the Tigers seemed to be pulling away. Kendrick Rogers was the difference maker on the receiving end of difficult passes from Mond. He’s the big-play guy, averaging 17 yards per reception. Jhamon Ausbon leads the team with 13 receptions for 201 yards through three games.
If the Crimson Tide are vulnerable anywhere, it may be the secondary. They’ve successfully shut down running attacks but are allowing over 200 yards per game in the air. This may be enough to keep the Aggies within the spread, but I wouldn’t be running out to make any moneyline bets.
Where’s the Smart Money on This Game?
I think oddsmakers may have overshot the runway when it comes to setting the line for this game at 27 points and there’s likely to be action on A&M early. My suggestion would be to wait for early money to move the line back to the lower 20s before locking in Alabama. If you think that Texas A&M is going to be competitive, get your bets in on them before the line moves. It’s definitely going to come down instead of up.
What I’ll be Betting on This Game
I’m going to wait to see how the line moves here. I’m not going to be the one who suggests betting against Alabama and its dominant roster this year. Until they don't cover, assume that they will.
The total opened at 61.5 and nearly everyone who has bet on this game has bet the OVER. These teams have both shown that they’re able to put up points and this will be the stiffest test faced by the Alabama secondary so far this year. I'm going to follow the public here. OVER 61.5.
