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Will The Cowboys Break The Bank For Dak Prescott?

It seems like every year in the NFL, a high-profile player is unhappy about getting the franchise tag and/or holds out for a new contract with guaranteed money. This year, that player is Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, but betting odds suggest the two sides will come to an agreement before the season starts.

According to the best football betting sites, Dak Prescott has +325 odds to start the 2020 NFL season under the exclusive franchise tag with America’s Team, which implies Cowboys owner Jerry Jones will eventually pay his quarterback for a long-term deal.

The online shop has also set an OVER/UNDER line of $35 million per season for the average annual value of a new contract, using as a baseline what Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks earns as the highest-paid quarterback in the league.

If you’re new to betting on football, check out our How To Bet NFL page to get up to speed, or keep track of the latest Super Bowl 55 odds.

Here are the betting odds for whether Dak Prescott will have the franchise tag for Game 1 of the 2020 NFL season:

Will Dak Prescott Have the Franchise Tag Designation for Game 1 of 2020 NFL Season?
OptionOdds
Yes+325
No-550

Odds as of May 26 at Bovada

Why The Cowboys Should Pay Dak

Dak Prescott may not be a top-five NFL quarterback in terms of talent but he has done nothing but exceed expectations since coming to Dallas as a fourth-round pick. The Cowboys finished 2019 at 8-8 but in his four seasons in Big D, he has yet to have a losing season with America’s Team.

His arm strength/accuracy isn’t good enough for him to be considered among the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL but he’s proven he knows how to win football games and he still has All-Pro running back Ezekiel Elliott and a stout offensive line to lean on. The Cowboys are in win-now mode, they’re expected to make the playoffs and it would be silly of them to go the Kirk Cousins route and franchise-tag Prescott each year. It’s more expensive in the long run based on the guaranteed money attached to those contracts.

Contract values in general for NFL starting quarterbacks rise each year as the newest extension always raises the bar. The deal Russell Wilson signed in 2019 made him the highest-paid QB in the NFL with an average annual salary of $35 million. The contract Mendoza line for starters is around $22 million. Considering the inflation of quarterback contracts, Wilson in three years likely won’t even be in the top five for an average annual salary.

Comparing Prescott To Wentz

The contract that Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz signed in 2019 (four years for $128 million, $107 million guaranteed) seems relevant to this discussion given the direct comparison that can be made between Wentz and Prescott. Both quarterbacks are considered the future of the NFC East and came into the league in 2016.

Look at the career stat comparison:

Dak Prescott vs Carson Wentz 
  • Playoff starts: 3 for Prescott, 1 for Wentz
  • Career Regular-Season Record: 40-24 for Prescott, 32-24 for Wentz
  • NFC East Division titles: 2 for Prescott, 2 for Wentz
  • Career QB rating: 97 for Prescott, 92.7 for Wentz
  • Career Average Yards Per Attempt: 7.6 for Prescott, 6.9 for Wentz
  • Career Games Missed: 0 for Prescott, 8 for Wentz

Now, I will agree that from the eye test, Wentz has looked much better as a quarterback but flash and style aren’t necessarily a QB’s best asset. Availability and wins are the tiebreakers and Prescott has been a cut above.

If I’m Prescott’s agent, I have a litany of production stats to use as a barometer for a new contract for my client. Just based on those numbers above, Dallas almost has to give Dak an obscenely lucrative deal to stay with the Cowboys.

Average Annual Value of Dak Prescott’s Next Contract?
OptionOdds
OVER $35 million per season-135
UNDER $35 million per season-105

Odds as of May 26 at Bovada


Understanding Dak Prescott NFL Prop Odds

When you check out your sportsbook of choice for NFL betting props like what will be the average annual value of Dak Prescott’s next contract, you’ll see prop odds that look something like this:

OVER $35 Million Per Season (-120)

UNDER $35 Million Per Season (-120)

To bet on these odds, you would be making a prop bet – more on that in a bit. In this case, there is no clear favorite like there would be on a moneyline or spread bet. 

If you think Dak Prescott’s next contract will have an average annual value in excess of $35 million and you bet $100 on the OVER option, you’d get a payout of $183.33 – you get your $100 back along with your winnings of $83.33. Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.

What is a Prop Bet?

prop is a bet on the occurrence or non-occurrence of certain outcomes that may not necessarily determine the outcome of a game. You can make a bet like this as soon as the odds are announced. Oddsmakers will move the lines as news comes out about a player’s offensive game plan and the team/talent around him. If you see odds you like, place your bet immediately, otherwise the action could move so much that you’ll barely make a profit or maybe even not make one at all.