UFC 247: Jones vs Reyes Odds and Picks

The UFC is returning to Houston, Texas, for the first time in three years as the Octagon will be set up at the Toyota Center for UFC 247. The light heavyweight title will be up for grabs in the main event as Jon “Bones” Jones defends his belt against Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes. Although Reyes carries a perfect 12-0 record into this bout, he is a +375 underdog with the champion, Jones, coming back at -550. I have a preview, UFC fight analysis, and a pick for each bout on the UFC 247 main card.

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Jon Jones vs Dominick Reyes

A winning streak will come to an end as Jon Jones (-550) hasn’t lost since 2009, a loss many people think should be overturned and the only blemish on his record – Bones is undefeated in 17 fights since. Meanwhile, Dominick Reyes (+375) has yet to taste defeat, sporting a perfect 12-0 record, including 6-0 in the UFC. The Devastator earned his title shot with a first-round knockout victory over Chris Weidman last October.

Jones, arguably the best pound-for-pound MMA fighter on the planet, is an extremely well-rounded fighter, having the ability to win in a standup war or a grappling match. The champion has a ridiculous 84.5-inch reach that he uses masterfully to keep his opponents at distance as he batters them with a stiff jab or kicks. If his opponents really pressure him, he can take the fight to the floor, landing 1.90 takedowns per 15 minutes.

As for Reyes, he is quite athletic, constantly bouncing around on the outside of the range of his foes looking to pick his shots when he can land his powerful left hand. Of his 12 wins, seven have come by knockout, including half of his six UFC bouts. Reyes may have poked the bear by hurling insults at Jones at their press conference in November – Alexander Gustafsson and Daniel Cormier, the last two fighters to take that approach, were knocked out.

Be sure to check out my odds analysis article on this fight.

Prediction: Jon Jones (-550) via knockout

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Valentina Shevchenko vs Katlyn Chookagian

Since dropping down to the flyweight division, Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko (-1100) is a perfect 4-0 and is looking to defend her belt for the third time. Standing across from Shevchenko as the woman attempting to steal the belt away is Katlyn “Blonde Fighter” Chookagian (+650), who is riding a two-fight winning streak of her own. Since joining the UFC in 2016, Blonde Fighter is 6-2 with her two losses coming by split decision.

Shevchenko may be the most dangerous women’s striker in MMA, possessing a Master of Sports in Muay Thai, taekwondo, boxing and kickboxing. This doesn’t mean she is a one-trick pony, though, as Bullet actually has more submission wins than knockouts. Her only two losses in the Octagon have come against arguably the greatest women’s fighter of all time, Amanda Nunes, both coming by decision and the second being a split decision.

Speaking of decisions, Chookagian has been a decision queen in the UFC with all eight of her bouts going to the judges’ scorecards. Overall, 12 of her 15 pro fights have gone that route. She is an active striker who finds angles to land her punches, but she often looks to counter rather than being the aggressor and she lacks power in her strikes.

Check out my odds analysis article on this fight.

Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko (-1100) via decision

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Juan Adams vs Justin Tafa

After beginning his pro career with five knockout wins, Juan “The Kraken” Adams (-250) finds himself on a two-fight losing skid. Aiming to hand Adams a third straight defeat is Justin “Bad Man” Tafa (+195), who suffered a first-round knockout loss to Yorgan De Castro in his UFC debut in October. These two heavyweights have secured all of their eight combined wins by knockout.

Tafa is a big powerful heavyweight who has strong kicks and is quite quick despite his size. He can be a little flat-footed as he inches toward his opponents looking for opportunities to land his strong strikes. However, in doing so, he typically swings from the hips, keeping his hands low while he moves forward, which led to his first-round knockout loss in his UFC debut.

Adams is a very aggressive fighter who doesn’t give his counterparts a lot of room to move and bounces around lightly on his feet. The Kraken works well behind his jab and does a good job throwing flurries of straight punches. He doesn’t have a ton of power behind them, but the accuracy and consistent pressure wears on his foes.

Prediction: Justin Tafa (+195) via knockout

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Mirsad Bektic vs Dan Ige

On the heels of his second professional loss, Mirsad Bektic (-125) is looking to avoid his first-ever losing streak. Both of Bektic’s defeats have come in the Octagon by knockout, most recently at the hands of Josh Emmett. His opponent, Dan “Dynamite” Ige (-105), dropped his UFC debut to Julio Arce but finds himself on a four-fight winning streak since then, including two finishes.

Bektic is a fast starter, taking the center of the Octagon and not showing any intention of giving it up. He likes to constantly paw away with his jab to work behind, setting up opportunities to land his heavier strikes. Sometimes when he loads up on the power strikes, he gets a little off balance, which opens him up for counters, but his great footwork allows him to quickly get out of danger.

Ige also likes to take the center of the cage but is more of a counter-striker than the aggressor, waiting for his foes to fire as he loads up looking to punish their mistakes. He has landed at least one takedown in each of his bouts in the UFC. Bektic should have the speed advantage in his strikes.

Prediction: Mirsad Bektic (-125) via decision

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Derrick Lewis vs Ilir Latifi

Fan favorite Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis (-230) is back in action for the first time since his split-decision win over Blagoy Ivanov in November. That victory halted Lewis’ brief two-fight losing skid. On a two-fight losing streak of his own is Ilir “The Sledgehammer” Latifi (+180), who is set to make his heavyweight debut. The Sweden native most recently lost to two top light heavyweight contenders in Corey Anderson and Volkan Oezdemir, with the latter scoring a knockout win.

The Black Beast looked good in his return to the cage in November. He appeared to have lost weight and it showed in his improved conditioning. Lewis had some explosive moments in the fight against Ivanov, throwing heavy hands looking for the knockout, but then would back off looking to conserve energy.

Latifi, on the other hand, is a very conservative fighter, allowing opponents to close the distance and fire at him as he looks for takedowns when they engage with him. In striking exchanges, he tries to tie up his opponents to avoid absorbing damage, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to tie up the much bigger and stronger Lewis.

Prediction: Derrick Lewis (-230) via knockout

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Here’s a look at the rest of the odds for UFC 247: Jones vs Reyes:

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook

Odds as of February 8 at Sportsbook