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UFC 256 Odds & Expert Predictions: Figueiredo Headlines Back-to-Back PPVs

The final PPV of what has been a wild and uncertain 2020 is quickly approaching with the flyweight title up for grabs for the second time in less than a month. Deiveson Figueiredo returns to the cage after defending his strap and will look to retain the title against Brandon Moreno at UFC 256.

This weekend’s event takes place on Saturday, December 12, at the UFC Apex Performance Center. Looking at the UFC 256 betting odds, Figueiredo is a sizable favorite in the main event and Moreno is the underdog. We have a full event betting preview, UFC predictions and the UFC 256 odds right here.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC 256 odds and Figueiredo comes in at -335 with Moreno listed as the +255 underdog. This means you would have to wager $335 on a Figueiredo win to profit $100, while a $100 bet on a Moreno win would profit you $255.

A win for Figueiredo would close out an incredible 2020 for the champion. That would give him four wins in four title fights, though he missed weight in the first, and he has already earned three finishes – perhaps fighter of the year?

Meanwhile, Moreno has put back-to-back losses in his rear-view mirror. He has a ton of momentum heading into this title bout, going 4-0-1 in his last five fights, including a victory over Jussier Formiga, the lone man to beat Figueiredo.

According to our sports betting calculator, Figueiredo’s -335 odds to win at UFC 256 have an implied win probability of 77.01 percent, while Moreno’s odds of +255 have an implied win probability of 28.17 percent.

Currently, the biggest favorite in the UFC 256 odds is in the women's strawweight division fight between Tecia Torres (-650) and Sam Hughes (+425). The closest line comes in the Kevin Holland-Jacare Souza middleweight bout, with Souza (-120) the slight favorite over Holland (-110).

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UFC 256 Odds

  • Flyweight Championship – Deiveson Figueiredo (-335) vs Brandon Moreno (+255)
  • Lightweight – Tony Ferguson (-175) vs Charles Oliveira (+145)
  • Women's Strawweight -- Mackenzie Dern (-190) vs Virna Jandiroba (+155)
  • Lightweight – Renato Moicano (+120) vs Rafael Fiziev (-150)
  • Middleweight – Kevin Holland (-110) vs Jacare Souza (-120)
  • Heavyweight – Junior dos Santos (+300) vs Ciryl Gane (-400)
  • Prelims
  • Featherweight – Gavin Tucker (+135) vs Billy Quarantillo (-165)
  • Featherweight – Cub Swanson (+140) vs Daniel Pineda (-170)
  • Featherweight – Chase Hooper (-325) vs Peter Barrett (+250)
  • Women's Strawweight -- Tecia Torres (-650) vs Sam Hughes (+425)

New to betting on the fights? Check out our UFC Fight News and UFC betting guide to get you in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date UFC 256 betting odds.

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs Moreno Broadcast Information

  • Date/Time: December 12, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex Performance Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+/PPV

Without further ado, here are my UFC best bets for UFC 256: Figueiredo vs Moreno:

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno Odds

FighterOdds
Deiveson Figueiredo-335
Brandon Moreno+255

Figueiredo (-335) is quickly becoming a star in the UFC. “Deus Da Guerra” or “God of War” has won five fights in a row and his last four ended in under 1.5 rounds. Meanwhile, Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (+255) is coming off his first finish since June 2019, ending a streak of three straight bouts that went the distance.


Figueiredo: Need to Knows
  • As mentioned, don’t look for many Figueiredo fights to go the distance. Of his 20 pro wins, 17 have been finishes, nine by knockout and eight by submission.
  • He is a relatively patient fighter, averaging just 2.79 significant strikes per minute, but his presence in the cage is intimidating.
  • The champion tends to stalk his opponents with his powerful right hand loaded and ready to fire, and when they throw a strike, he counters heavily. Figueiredo cuts off the cage effectively, really suffocating his foes.
  • He’s not just a one-trick pony as a striker either. If his foes rush him to get past his right hand, he will level change and take the fight to the floor, where he aggressively searches for a submission while also landing heavy ground and pound.
  • Figueiredo’s last three fights were Joseph Benavidez (win – knockout), Joseph Benavidez (win – submission) and Alex Perez (win – submission).


Moreno: Need to Knows
  • Not only was Moreno’s finish the first in four fights, but it was also his first in the UFC since he finished Dustin Ortiz in April 2017, a span of seven fights.
  • That doesn’t mean Moreno doesn’t search for finishes. Thirteen of his 18 pro wins have been finishes – three by knockout and 10 by submission – and he’s never been stopped.
  • The Assassin Baby’s striking continues to improve, though at this point he works almost solely behind a snappy left jab while not usually throwing his right hand unless he sees a clear opening.
  • Moreno does have fast hands, but when he doesn’t counter and tries to lead the dance, he sometimes telegraphs his punches. His main approach is his takedowns and he averages 1.93 per 15 minutes.
  • Moreno’s last three fights were Kai Kara France (win – unanimous decision), Jussier Formiga (win – unanimous decision) and Brandon Royval (win – knockout).

Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo (-335) via submission

For more on this fight, check out my Figueiredo vs Moreno odds analysis.

Tony Ferguson vs Charles Oliveira Odds

FighterOdds
Tony Ferguson-175
Charles Oliveira+145

Returning to the cage for the first time since his loss at UFC 249 is Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (-175), whose 12-fight winning streak was snapped with that loss. Riding a lengthy win streak of his own is Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (+145), who has won seven in a row and would be catapulted into the title conversation with a win over Ferguson.


Ferguson: Need to Knows
  • Despite his winning streak, he only held the interim title and never was able to unify it against Khabib Nurmagomedov, even though the UFC tried to orchestrate that fight several times.
  • El Cucuy has a high output of 5.80 significant strikes per minute and is a very entertaining fighter, with 20 of his 25 pro wins being finishes, 12 by knockout and eight by submission.
  • Ferguson is very light on his feet, constantly jerking forward and using odd angles to find areas to land his strikes. He doesn’t mind getting in the pocket to exchange hands, and on the floor he has creative and strong submissions.
  • He doesn’t throw with a ton of power but when he lands, he batters his opponents’ faces. Defensively, though, he does tend to keep his hands a little low and can be picked apart with jabs.
  • Ferguson’s last three fights were Anthony Pettis (win – knockout), Donald Cerrone (win – knockout) and Justin Gaethje (loss – knockout).


Oliveira: Need to Knows
  • Not only is Oliveira on a seven-fight winning streak, but each of those victories was a finish, with five submissions and two knockouts. Overall, 27 of his 29 pro wins have been finishes, eight by knockout and 19 by submission.
  • Do Bronx is fairly aggressive, constantly moving forward and looking to get in a brawl on the feet or a grappling exchange on the floor. He has a snappy jab and solid kicks and also throws creative strikes like flying knees and spinning attacks.
  • On the floor, he is relentless in searching for a submission, constantly chaining attempts together, while landing blows if he and his opponent come to a bit of a stalemate. Defensively, on the feet, he doesn’t have a ton of head movement but rather stays in the pocket and throws punches back.
  • Oliveira’s last three fights were Nik Lentz (win – knockout), Jared Gordon (win – knockout) and Kevin Lee (win – submission).

Prediction: Charles Oliveira (+145) via decision

Renato Moicano vs Rafael Fiziev Odds

FighterOdds
Renato Moicano+120
Rafael Fiziev-150

We have a good one here. Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev (-150) looks to extend his two-fight winning streak and is fresh off a Fight of the Night performance vs Marc Diakiese in July. Meanwhile, Renato Moicano (+120) looks to make it two in a row in the lightweight division after moving up from featherweight earlier this year.


Moicano: Need to Knows
  • Moicano was among the title challengers in the featherweight division, only losing to Jose Aldo, Korean Zombie and Brian Ortega, while earning wins over the likes of Jeremy Stephens, Calvin Kattar and Cub Swanson.
  • Of his 14 pro wins, seven are by submission and the other seven by decision. He is a long fighter, predominantly using kicks to keep his opponents at bay. He has a tendency to feint toward his opponent without throwing a punch in trying to counter, but that can put him in dangerous positions.
  • However, it’s not in the striking world where Moicano excels. Rather, when he searches for a takedown and works toward a submission, that’s when his opponents are in deep trouble.
  • Moicano’s last three fights were Jose Aldo (loss – knockout), Korean Zombie (loss – knockout) and Damir Hadzovic (win – submission).


Fiziev: Need to Knows
  • Fiziev earned a UFC contract when he was 6-0 but lost his debut to Magomed Mustafaev via knockout. He has rebounded with back-to-back decision victories since then.
  • Six of Ataman’s eight pro wins have been finishes, five by knockout and one by submission. He is very active on the feet, constantly bouncing from side to side looking for opportunities to let his heavy strikes go.
  • He has very strong kicks and great reflexes that enable him to avoid strikes coming his way. Additionally, he has good grappling skills, landing one takedown in each of his last two fights, though I don’t think he’ll go for that approach vs Moicano.
  • Fiziev’s last three fights were Magomed Mustafaev (loss – knockout), Alex White (win – unanimous decision) and Marc Diakiese (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Rafael Fiziev (-150) via knockout

Kevin Holland vs Jacare Souza Odds

FighterOdds
Kevin Holland-110
Jacare Souza-120

I talked off the top of Deiveson Figueiredo potentially being fighter of the year, but Kevin “Trail Blazer” Holland (-110) may also have a claim to that title, riding a four-fight winning streak since May and looking to go 5-0 in 2020. Meanwhile, Jacare Souza (-120) makes his first walk to the cage in 2020 and is in search of his first victory since November 2018.


Holland: Need to Knows
  • Holland has used the pandemic to remain active in the Octagon and raise his stock within the middleweight division. He made his UFC debut vs Thiago Santos in August 2018 in a losing effort but has since gone 7-1.
  • Trail Blazer is tall and long at six-foot-three with an 81-inch reach that is huge for the middleweight division. He uses that reach extremely well, landing 4.68 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.80.
  • He throws long straight punches and as his confidence grows in a fight, he becomes more dangerous. Takedown defense has been a bit of an issue for him, though. He has stuffed just 54 percent of attempts and has been taken down multiple times in five of his nine UFC bouts.
  • Holland’s last three fights were Joaquin Buckley (win – knockout), Darren Stewart (win – split decision) and Charlie Ontiveros (win – submission).


Souza: Need to Knows
  • The former Strikeforce middleweight champion and seven-time performance bonus winner appears to be nearing the end of his career. Jacare has lost five of his last nine and heads into this bout on the first two-fight losing streak of his career.
  • Of Souza’s 26 pro wins, 22 have been finishes, including 14 submissions. On the floor, he is incredibly dangerous, but he hasn’t earned a win in that manner since 2017. Jacare uses plenty of feints on the feet, but his main goal is to get into a grappling situation.
  • He has decent kicks on the feet, though he mostly looks to counter, typically standing a little flat-footed with very little movement. Eventually, he will throw a big overhand right and bull-rush his opponents to get them in a clinch against the cage where he can start to work the fight to the floor.
  • Souza’s last three fights were Chris Weidman (win – knockout), Jack Hermansson (loss – unanimous decision) and Jan Blachowicz (loss – split decision).

Prediction: Kevin Holland (-110) via decision

Junior dos Santos vs Ciryl Gane Odds

FighterOdds
Junior dos Santos+300
Ciryl Gane-400

Former UFC heavyweight champion Junior “Cigano” dos Santos (+300) finds himself on a three-fight losing streak, the longest of his career, and is in search of his first win since March 2019. Meanwhile, the undefeated Frenchman, Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane (-400), looks for his fourth win in the UFC and seventh overall.


Dos Santos: Need to Knows
  • Many longtime fight fans can remember JDS making his debut at UFC 90 in 2008 and being the first-ever UFC on Fox fight when he knocked out Cain Velasquez in a minute to win the belt in a one-fight televised event. However, Cigano is in a rough patch now, dropping three in a row.
  • Of dos Santos’ 21 pro wins, 15 have been by knockout, but six of his eight pro losses have also come in that manner. JDS is a boxer and has been adding in some lower leg kicks to open up areas to let his hands go.
  • He keeps his hands a little low, which has resulted in some of those knockout losses. Cigano is still moving well laterally but at times he will overextend when he throws his punches and if he misses, it puts him in a precarious spot. JDS does his best work when he’s pumping his jab.
  • Dos Santos’ last three fights were Francis Ngannou (loss – knockout), Curtis Blaydes (loss – knockout) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (loss – knockout).


Gane: Need to Knows
  • The heavier and longer man, Bon Gamin moves extremely well like a middleweight, constantly switching stances and analyzing his opponents’ movements before going on the attack.
  • Through three UFC bouts, he is averaging 5.12 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.09 and he makes his opponents miss 73 percent of their attempts. Although he has great boxing skills, he has three submission wins to just two knockouts.
  • He may have some of the best kicks in the heavyweight division, throwing them quickly and powerfully. But he doesn’t throw as many as I’d like to see, though it does open up opportunities to let his hands go.
  • Gane’s last three fights were Raphael Pessoa (win – submission), Don’Tale Mayes (win – submission) and Tanner Boser (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Ciryl Gane (-400) via decision

UFC 256 Best Bets & Odds

FighterOdds
Flyweight – Deiveson Figueiredo-335
Lightweight – Charles Oliveira+145
Lightweight – Rafael Fiziev-150
Middleweight – Kevin Holland-110
Heavyweight – Ciryl Gane-400