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UFC 258 Odds & Predictions: Usman vs Burns for Welterweight Championship

Kamaru Usman (left) is the favorite over Gilbert Burns (right) in the UFC 258 Odds

The year’s second UFC pay-per-view is quickly approaching as the welterweight title will be up for grabs with two former teammates battling it out. The UFC 258 main event features champion Kamaru Usman making his third title defense against challenger Gilbert Burns.

Looking at the UFC 258 odds, the titleholder, Usman, is set as the betting favorite with Burns coming back as an underdog. We have the full UFC 258 odds and predictions as well as a preview for each fight on the main card.

The first championship fight of 2021 sees Usman laying his 16-fight winning streak on the line. His most recent title defense came against Jorge Masvidal last July at UFC 251 when he earned a unanimous-decision victory.

As for the challenger, Burns has been on a tear since returning to the welterweight division midway through 2019. He scored four wins in just under a year, including a knockout victory over former two-division title challenger Demian Maia and a decision win over former champion Tyron Woodley.

UFC 258 Odds: Usman vs Burns

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC 258 odds with Kamaru Usman listed as the -265 chalk and Gilbert Burns coming in as a +205 underdog. This means you would have to wager $265 to profit $100 on an Usman victory while a $100 bet on a Burns win would profit you $205.

Looking at the UFC 258 odds for Usman vs Burns, our sports betting calculator tells us that Usman’s odds of -265 represent an implied win probability of 72.97 percent while Burns’ odds of +205 have an implied win probability of 32.26 percent.

While Usman is a sizable favorite in the main event, the biggest favorite in the UFC 258 betting odds is in the welterweight bout between Belal Muhammad (-500) and Dhiego Lima (+350).

The tightest betting line can be found in the co-main event of the evening with Alexa Grasso a -125 favorite over Maycee Barber as a -105 underdog in the women’s strawweight division. 

UFC 258 Betting Odds & Fight Card


UFC 258 Betting Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Welterweight championship – Kamaru Usman (-265) vs Gilbert Burns (+205)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Maycee Barber (-105) vs Alexa Grasso (-125)
  • Middleweight – Kelvin Gastelum (-230) vs Ian Heinisch (+180)
  • Middleweight – Julian Marquez (-170) vs Maki Pitolo (+140)
  • Featherweight -- Brian Kelleher (+195) vs Ricky Simon (-250)
  • Prelims
  • Middleweight – Rodolfo Vieira (-450) vs Anthony Hernandez (+325)
  • Welterweight – Belal Muhammad (-500) vs Dhiego Lima (+350)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Polyana Viana (+115) vs Mallory Martin (-145)
  • Catchweight – Andre Ewell (+115) vs Chris Gutierrez (-145)
  • Welterweight – Gabe Green (-135) vs Philip Rowe (+105)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Gillian Robertson (+125) vs Miranda Maverick (-155)

New to betting on the fights? Check out our How to Bet on the UFC guide to help you get in the action. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date betting lines.


UFC 258: Usman vs Burns Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: February 13, 6:15 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Kamaru Usman-265
Gilbert Burns+205

This is a very intriguing title fight in that Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (-265) and Gilbert “Durinho” Burns (+205) were teammates at Sanford MMA, so there are people that know who got the better of who in the training room. As mentioned off the top, Usman is riding a 16-fight winning streak, while Burns has put together a nice six-fight win streak of his own.


Usman: Need to Knows
  • Usman has not lost in the UFC since winning The Ultimate Fighter in 2015. Nine of his 12 wins in the UFC have come by decision, with two knockouts and a submission win as well.
  • There’s no secret what the Nigerian Nightmare is looking to do when locked in the cage: close the distance, get his hands on his opponent and wrestle them against the Octagon or down to the floor.
  • Usman averages 3.38 takedowns per 15 minutes, while never yielding a takedown himself. His striking has continued to evolve but he typically sticks to one strike at a time and stands rather flat-footed.
  • One of the difference-makers for Usman is his outstanding conditioning, which allows him to grind and push the pace for the duration of the bout. He is calm and composed in the cage with fairly good striking defense when the fight is on the feet.
  • Usman’s last three fights were Tyron Woodley (win – unanimous decision), Colby Covington (win – knockout) and Jorge Masvidal (win – unanimous decision).


Burns: Need to Knows
  • No stranger to lengthy winning streaks, Burns began his career with 10 straight wins before his first of three setbacks. His only stoppage defeat was a first-round knockout loss to Dan Hooker.
  • Of Burns’ 19 pro wins, 14 have been finishes with six knockouts and eight submissions. However, he has just two stoppages during his current six-fight winning streak.
  • Durinho is a well-rounded fighter, averaging 2.21 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he doesn’t mind slinging bombs on the feet either. He has only stuffed 50 percent of takedown attempts against him, mainly because his high-level BJJ skills allow him to be comfortable on the floor.
  • On the feet, Burns is twitchy, looking to explode with heavy strikes, but he prefers to be the counter-striker. He has good hand speed and uses that to try to land more quickly than his opponent, while his counter hook has real power behind it. If he goes first, he typically throws a kick or loads up on a punch that can easily be avoided.
  • Burns’ last three fights were Gunnar Nelson (win – unanimous decision), Demian Maia (win – knockout) and Tyron Woodley (win – unanimous decision).

For more on this fight, be sure to check out my Usman vs Burns odds analysis article.

Prediction: Kamaru Usman (-265) via decision

Maycee Barber vs Alexa Grasso Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Maycee Barber-105
Alexa Grasso-125

Returning to the Octagon for the first time in over a year following knee surgery is Maycee “The Future” Barber (-105). She suffered her first pro loss in her last appearance, when she tore up her knee. Alexa Grasso (-125) looks to add another loss to Barber’s record and is trying to win consecutive fights for the first time since 2016.


Barber: Need to Knows
  • Barber was well on her way to trying to break Jon Jones’ record as the youngest-ever UFC champion, picking up three knockout victories before the injury in her loss to Roxanne Modafferi.
  • Seven of The Future’s eight pro wins have been stoppages, with five knockouts and two submissions, while her only loss came by decision.
  • She is an aggressive fighter, constantly cutting off the cage looking to let her heavy hands fly. Barber is also quite strong; if she gets in the clinch, she can bully her opponent and start firing hooks. Those hooks and big punches open up areas for a level change but she stuffs 80 percent of takedown attempts.
  • Barber’s last three fights were J.J. Aldrich (win – knockout), Gillian Robertson (win – knockout) and Roxanne Modafferi (loss – unanimous decision).


Grasso: Need to knows
  • After being signed to the UFC with a perfect 8-0 record, Grasso has been on a win-one, lose-one streak ever since with a 4-3 record in the UFC.
  • Of her 15 pro fights, 10 have gone the distance while she has four knockout wins and one submission loss. Despite a 4-3 record in the UFC, she has outstruck all seven of her opponents but has been taken down multiple times in four of those bouts.
  • Grasso is extremely fast, constantly bouncing around on the outside before moving forward with crisp straight punches. Nearly every time she engages with her opponents, she throws combinations rather than one punch at a time.
  • Grasso’s last three fights were Karolina Kowalkiewicz (win – unanimous decision), Carla Esparza (loss – majority decision) and Ji Yeon Kim (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Maycee Barber (-105) via decision

Kelvin Gastelum vs Ian Heinisch Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Kelvin Gastelum-230
Ian Heinisch+180

It has been a rough couple of years for former title challenger Kelvin Gastelum (-230), who seeks his first win since 2018 after losing three straight fights. On the other side, Ian “The Hurricane” Heinisch (+180) dropped two fights in a row in late 2019 but scored a first-round knockout win in his lone 2020 appearance.


Gastelum: Need to Knows
  • It was just under two years ago that Kelvin Gastelum fought Israel Adesanya for the interim middleweight championship in what was the 2019 fight of the year. Gastelum lost that fight by decision and his two ensuing bouts.
  • Gastelum can wrestle, averaging 0.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, but his go-to is definitely striking. Of his 15 pro wins, 10 have been by stoppage, with six knockouts and four submissions.
  • As a southpaw, it should come as no surprise that Gastelum has a fantastic left hand that he throws in several ways, but typically the left hook is the night-ender. He tends to load up on strikes that can be avoided by fleet-footed opponents.
  • He needs to throw kicks to slow down his counterparts so that he can let his fast and heavy hands fly.
  • Gastelum’s last three fights were Israel Adesanya (loss – unanimous decision), Darren Till (loss – split decision) and Jack Hermansson (loss – submission).


Heinisch: Need to Knows
  • After a quick start in the UFC with back-to-back decision wins, Heinisch promptly lost back-to-back decisions before earning his first UFC finish last summer, knocking out Gerald Meerschaert.
  • Seven of the Hurricane’s 14 pro wins have been stoppages, with five knockouts and two submissions. His only stoppage loss was a submission in his ninth fight.
  • He has outstruck each of the four opponents he has beaten in the UFC while being outstruck in his two losses. He’s also been taken down 14 times in his UFC career. Heinisch is an aggressive fighter with lots of kicks and wastes no time getting in his opponents’ faces.
  • Heinisch’s last three fights were Derek Brunson (loss – unanimous decision), Omari Akhmedov (loss – unanimous decision) and Gerald Meerschaert (win – knockout).

Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum (-230) via knockout

Julian Marquez vs Maki Pitolo Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Julian Marquez-170
Maki Pitolo+140

It has been a long-awaited return to the Octagon for Julian “The Cuban Missile Crisis” Marquez (-170), who has been dealing with injuries since his last bout in July 2018. Maki “Coconut Bombz” Pitolo (+140) will welcome Marquez back to the cage with a closed fist, looking to end a two-fight losing skid. 


Marquez: Need to Knows
  • Marquez earned a UFC contract in season 1 of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2017, won his UFC debut against Darren Stewart and then lost to Alessio Di Chirico before his lengthy time off.
  • All seven of his pro wins have been finishes, with six knockouts and a submission, while his two losses came by decision. 
  • He does a good job cutting off the cage and not giving his opponent a ton of room to work. Marquez has a habit of being really patient and he can be picked apart as he walks into strikes, but if he decides to let his hands fly, he has serious power and crisp combinations.
  • He’s not solely a striker, though, as he has underrated grappling skills and a mean squeeze that can catch his opponent off guard.
  • Marquez’s last three fights were Phil Hawes (win – knockout), Darren Stewart (win – submission) and Alessio Di Chirico (loss – split decision).


Pitolo: Need to Knows
  • Also a Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series alum, Pitolo has been much more active, fighting for the seventh time since Marquez was last in action.
  • Of his 13 pro wins, 10 have been stoppages with seven knockouts and three submissions. Five of his seven defeats have also been finishes (two knockouts, three submissions).
  • Coconut Bombz is a fast starter, quickly closing the distance and looking to get into a brawl. He has good footwork, dancing in and out of range, but when he’s in, Pitolo bites down on his mouthpiece and wings hooks at his opponent. 
  • At times he gets caught overextending and then he’s stuck in the pocket just begging to be hit hard. 
  • Pitolo’s last three fights were Charles Byrd (win – knockout), Darren Stewart (loss – submission) and Impa Kasanganay (loss – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Maki Piolo (+140) via decision

Brian Kelleher vs Ricky Simon Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Brian Kelleher+195
Ricky Simon-250

After a second-round stoppage in late January on Fight Island, Ricky Simon (-250) returns to the Octagon seeking his second win in 2021 and third in a row overall. He will be competing at featherweight for this fight against Brian "Boom" Kelleher (+195) who scored a first-round submission win in September to close out 2020 going 3-1 on the year.


Kelleher: Need to Knows
  • Following a 13-month layoff, Boom returned to the cage in early 2020 and put together a great year with three stoppage victories and one decision loss. Of his 33 pro fights only eight have gone the distance and of his 22 wins 28 were stoppages.
  • Kelleher switches stances fluidly and has fantastic head movement. He is well-rounded with eight knockout wins and 10 submission victories as well. At times, he will telegraph his shots which leads to him getting countered.
  • I'd love to see more counters from Boom he typically just covers up and retreats when under attack rather than firing back in the pocket. Additionally, he tends to throw one strike at a time and can be caught taking pictures of his work in the pocket leading to him getting hit hard.
  • Kelleher's last three fights were Hunter Azure (win - knockout), Cody Stamann (loss - unanimous decision) and Ray Rodriguez (win - submission).


Simon: Need to Knows
  • After a rough end to 2019 in which Simon suffered his first two losses in the UFC, he rounded with a split-decision win in 2020 followed by a submission win just 24 days ago.
  • Half of his 20 pro fights have gone the distance while he has eight stoppage wins, five by knockout and three by submission, though he has been finished twice as well, one knockout and one submission.
  • Simon is relentless in looking for takedowns, averaging 7.07 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least five in five of his eight UFC bouts. On the feet, he doesn't bring a lot to the table, typically looking to counter when his opponents engage and almost always throwing hooks.
  • Simon's last three fights were Rob Font (loss - unanimous decision), Ray Borg (win - split decision) and Gaetano Pirrello (win - submission).

Prediction: Ricky Simon (-250) via decision

UFC 258 Odds & Best Bets

FighterOdds
Welterweight – Kamaru Usman-270
Women’s Flyweight – Maycee Barber-105
Middleweight – Kelvin Gastelum-230
Middleweight – Maki Pitolo +140
Featherweight -- Ricky Simon-250