Belal Muhammad will defend his welterweight belt at UFC 315 on May 10 in Montreal, Quebec against surprise challenger Jack Della Maddalena. Muhammad is a -215 favorite at FanDuel vs Della Maddalena (+164 underdog), who now gets a title shot as the No. 4 contender.
The promotion asked Shavkat Rakhmonov to fight at UFC 315, but he was out due to injury. Instead, the UFC pivoted Della Maddalena from his Fight Night bout vs Leon Edwards into the welterweight title fight in Montreal.
Muhammad vs Della maddalena Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | -215 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | +164 |
Odds as of Feb. 20 at FanDuel
Using our odds calculator, we can determine Muhammad's -215 odds suggest a 68.25% chance of winning, and a $100 bet pays out $146.51. JDM's +164 underdog status gives him a 37.88% chance of winning, with a $100 bet paying out $264.
Why Is Della Maddalena fighting for the belt at UFC 315?
After an unexpected shakeup, JDM is fighting for the UFC welterweight belt at UFC 315. He was set to face Edwards at UFC London in late March, but when Rakhmonov got injured, Muhammad needed a new challenger. The UFC gave Della Maddalena the shot, and now he’s fighting for gold on May 10 in Montreal.
How To Bet Belal
Muhammad's best shot at beating JDM at UFC 315 is to turn it into a grinding, wrestling-heavy fight. He’s a master at slowing down dangerous strikers by smothering them with pressure and making them fight on his terms. It could be a long night for the Aussie if Belal can keep Jack off balance and force him into grappling exchanges.
Della Maddalena is an elite striker, but his takedown defense isn’t bulletproof (70%). This is the obvious route to victory, so Muhammad will look to expose that, control the fight, and cruise to a dominant win, likely by decision.
In 2023, UFC newcomer Bassil Haffez put JDM on his butt five times in a short-notice fight, leading to a very narrow split-decision win by Della Maddalena. More recently, Gilbert Burns took JDM down seven times. Belal is also a very skilled wrestler. I'd look for a Belal by decision bet, but my spidey senses are tingling, and I think I'll also sprinkle Muhammad by submission.
The safest bet: Belal ML (-215) + OVER 1.5 rounds parlay. Play it up to OVER 2.5 rounds, if you'd like.
How To Bet Della Maddalena
Della Maddalena’s TKO win over Burns at UFC 299 showed his toughness and ability to handle elite grapplers. Burns took him down multiple times, but he stayed calm, got back up, and landed a brutal knee to finish the fight. That resilience could be key against Muhammad, who’ll likely wrestle for five rounds. If he keeps it standing and punishes failed takedowns, he’s got a real shot at the belt.
But let's be real here: JDM's win at UFC 299 required a lot of luck, as many KOs do. Still, JDM stuffed four of six takedowns in that final round, showing more late-round resolve than I expected before crunching Burns with that powerful knee.
Della Maddalena's performance against Burns suggests he won't be completely washed out if he gets controlled on the ground by Belal for two or even three rounds. As the champ tires, JDM can work on that defense and strike.
With all that in mind, JDM ML (+164 for now) is the best underdog bet. If I were on JDM for this fight, I'd also look at him by KO.
Belal vs JDM Betting Pick
I understand MMA fans don't like Muhammad's conservative fighting style, but I'll bet that tune changes when he wins them some serious coin at this title fight in La Belle Province.
As I've laid out, I like Belal ML + OVER 1.5 Rounds. I'll add a sprinkle on Belal to win by submission.
