With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 Players Championship. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 Players Championship prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a bloodbath occurred not only on the golf course but in our prop bets. A few players were well-positioned heading into the weekend, but the bad end of the weather draw proved to be our undoing. With no time to reminisce, we now set our sights on our Players Championship prop bets.
In what may come as a surprise, three men occupy the top spot on the oddsboard at Sportsbook. World No. 1 Jon Rahm, No. 2 Collin Morikawa and defending champion Justin Thomas all check in at -225 to finish inside the top 20 in this week’s Players Championship.
Our odds calculator gives the three favorites a 69.23 percent chance to play themselves inside the top 20 by week’s end. But needing to lay $225 to profit $100 on those odds, we will instead look further down the oddsboard for better value as inclement weather and the potential for an outside Sportsbook increase as we progress toward the start of the Players Championship.
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2022 Players Championship: What To Look For
The weather forecast will be discussed ad nauseam this week as the sunshine and light breezes that have blessed the Florida swing are no more. With thunderstorms, high winds and colder weather rolling into Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, the change in TPC Sawgrass will be well apparent.
If that’s the case, it may play similar to the 2019 Players Championship that was the first edition of the tournament to be played in the month of March. Previously held in May, the move brought chilly temperatures and the need to keep the ball in the fairway and strike it adequately became even more essential.
While thunderstorms are likely to litter Rounds 1 and 2, the weekend will feature high winds and colder conditions. With gusts up to 30 miles per hour on Moving Day, it is possible we see a situation similar to the WM Phoenix Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational where Scottie Scheffler came from far behind in Round 3 to eventually win.
This makes for an interesting case study as live betting will be heavily prominent for the 2022 Players Championship. Still willing to place a few prop bets before play begins, we will target fairway finders and tee-to-green gamers who have the propensity to run hot with the putter for our top-20 selections.
2022 Players Championship Prop Bets & Best Bets
K.H. Lee +500 To Finish Inside The Top 20
A known TPC specialist, Lee has both struggled and found a string of consistency in 2022. The South Korean has connected on seven consecutive starts to begin his year but has been unable to crack the top 25 on a leaderboard, with his best effort coming at the Genesis Invitational when he finished in a tie for 26th. The Byron Nelson Sportsbook will need to flip his iron play if he wants to contend once again.
Gaining strokes off the tee in his five latest outings and around the green in four of five, the 30-year-old has been let down by his approach play. Despite this, he has been close to climbing into the coveted top 20 we are looking for and his history in the Players Championship suggests this could be a reasonable spot on the calendar for it to return.
Lee posted +1.31 SG: Off-the-Tee per round and +0.72 SG: Approach per round in last year’s championship and eventually finished in a tie for 41st. Having found his touch on and around the green to begin this year, he should be in position come the weekend if he is able to marry the ball-striking and the short game. Able to play windy, difficult conditions well, Lee makes for our first prop bet for the 2022 Players Championship.
Betting odds from Sportsbook
Denny McCarthy +600 To Finish Inside The Top 20
McCarthy’s T-55 finish in last year’s Players Championship does not accurately depict just how well he played at TPC Sawgrass. He was in contention during the second half of the tournament, but the University of Virginia product struggled across the weekend among the big names. While it was disheartening to see the collapse, a top-20 wager is much more reasonable for a player such as McCarthy.
The Maryland native made back-to-back cuts to begin his Florida swing, collecting a T-30 finish at the Honda Classic and a T-61 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. With PGA National much more compatible for his game, McCarthy has the tendency to pop up on these shorter, Bermuda grass courses such as TPC Sawgrass this week.
McCarthy finished his 2021 inside the top 20 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, WWT Championship, HPE Houston Open and RSM Classic, and after contending once again at the American Express, the commonality in these venues is glaring. Hoping his ball-striking can return to that of just one month ago, McCarthy to finish inside the top 20 makes for our second prop bet for the Players Championship.
Brendon Todd +750 To Finish Inside The Top 20
The 36-year-old, making his fourth appearance in the Players Championship, has not played a ton of golf at TPC Sawgrass in the past. Because of this, the results have simply not stacked up, but on paper, the Pete Dye design is a perfect fit for someone with Todd’s skill profile.
Extremely accurate off the tee and well off both on and around the greens, the Georgia Bulldog arrives having made four consecutive weekend appearances. With a top-20 result at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a top-30 finish at the WM Phoenix Open, Todd began his Florida swing with strong play from his short game.
His ball-striking has suffered in the Sunshine State, but I will chalk it up more to course fit as long irons were needed at both venues. I expect this area of Todd’s game to rebound and because of this, I like him to find the top 20 for the first time in his career at the Players Championship.
Kevin Streelman +750 To Finish Inside The Top 20
The 43-year-old is in the midst of some really poor play, making only two weekend appearances in the first two months of 2022 while missing four cuts. Streelman should find comfort on a course like TPC Sawgrass, which is accuracy-driven with a need for tee-to-green prowess. If the Duke product can flip the switch with his iron play, he should at least play himself into the weekend.
Streelman has found his fair share of success on Pete Dye designs in the past, namely at Harbour Town Golf Links, TPC River Highlands and even this past summer at the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island. Extremely accurate off the tee, he has now gained strokes off the tee with no help of distance, thus illustrating the consistency in which he strikes fairways.
A player who has always played more difficult conditions well and is not afraid of the big moment, Streelman’s top-20 at the Honda Classic just two weeks ago is a possible indicator for success. He has yet to play well at TPC Sawgrass in the month of March, but this is the time for him to right the ship, making for our final top-20 wager for the Players Championship.