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NBA Free Agency Odds: Where Is Everyone Going?

With NBA free agency now expected to begin on November 20, two days after the 2020 NBA Draft, oddsmakers have had to scramble to release betting props for NBA free agency odds as different players become available to sign with new teams or move via trade.

The best basketball betting sites have a wide range of props for NBA free agency odds with key players like Carmelo Anthony, Andre Drummond, Danilo Gallinari and DeMar DeRozan, among others, possibly available either on the trade market or in free agency.

A lot of these players could directly impact NBA championship futures, which is why it’s important for basketball handicappers to pay attention to these free agency odds. The biggest fish on the market is technically Anthony Davis, but the forward is all but a lock to re-sign with the Los Angeles Lakers with odds at -10000 to be back in the purple and gold for the 2021 regular season.

NBA Free Agency Odds

The way these NBA free agency props work is the player must be on the team’s roster to start the 2021 NBA regular season. The start date for next season is projected to be December 22 with a full slate of games to be played on Christmas Day.

Let’s break down each of the big ones for NBA free agency odds and where the player could end up to start the 2021 season:

Chris Paul Odds 

*Chris Paul was traded to the Phoenix Suns on Monday, November 16. The Suns were not listed for odds.

Arguably the most impactful player on the list, Chris Paul’s tenure in Oklahoma City may be a short one. As much as GM Sam Presti likely loves having him on the team, the reality is the Thunder are in rebuild mode after parting ways with head coach Billy Donovan and they already have their point guard of the future in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Factor in that Paul is 35 and will make $85 million over the next two seasons, and he’s gotta go.

So if OKC isn’t an option, why not the Lakers or Bucks? Well, mainly due to salary cap issues and available trade assets. Neither team has the cap space to take on Paul’s contract without parting with some players, nor do they have much to offer that would likely entice Presti.

The team that should be seriously considered is the New York Knicks at +350. Paul’s former agent, Leon Rose, is now the president of the Knicks and New York has trade pieces to offer and the cap space to absorb a contract like CP3’s. It would be such a Knicks move to do this after missing out on free agency in recent years and not making the playoffs since 2013.

Also worth noting that the odds on the Knicks opened at +1200 so clearly where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

Odds on Which Team Chris Paul Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
Oklahoma City Thunder+150
Los Angeles Lakers+175
New York Knicks+350
Milwaukee Bucks+850
Miami Heat+1400

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada


Carmelo Anthony Odds

After having a career resurgence with the Portland Trail Blazers, Carmelo Anthony finds himself in an interesting position going into the 2021 NBA season. Unlike the last offseason when it seemed like no NBA team wanted him, now there’s upwards of six teams on the oddsboard that could look to acquire his services. The odds-on favorite, the Trail Blazers, sit at -200 to re-sign him but another team like the Lakers could pry him away.

Everyone and their dog knows how close Carmelo and LeBron James are and the Lakers have the ability to sign Anthony to the mid-level exception. Melo may want to chase a ring and no team has a better shot to win the NBA championship in 2021 than the Lakers. If he prioritizes winning, he’ll either stay with Portland or move to LA. Any other option just seems foolish at this stage of Carmelo’s career.

Odds on Which Team Carmelo Anthony Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
Portland Trail Blazers-200
New York Knicks+600
Los Angeles Lakers+600
Charlotte Hornets+1200
Atlanta Hawks+1200
Detroit Pistons+1200

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada


Danilo Gallinari Odds

One of the few true free agents on this list, Danilo Gallinari is an interesting piece to consider for a second-tier contender. The Italian swingman is a good third option for scoring and rebounding and will likely get the largest free-agent contract this offseason, outside of Anthony Davis. That’s why it’s hard to peg where he’ll go and if he prioritizes making money or winning championships.

Two teams that would love to have him would be the Dallas Mavericks (+300) and Milwaukee Bucks (+900). The Mavs are the favorite to land him and he would immediately be the best swingman on the roster and could play in a small-ball lineup at the 4 or 5. The Mavs also have the cap space to land him if that’s where he chooses to go.

Then there’s the Bucks, who just seem like they’re one piece away from putting themselves over the top. The main issue for Milwaukee is the status of NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and if he intends to stay with the Bucks. If he stays and signs a new long-term contract, the Bucks will heavily pursue Gallinari or someone like Victor Oladipo to add more weapons.

If Giannis intends to bolt, the Bucks would immediately go in fire-sale mode and would be out of the running. At this stage, it’s too difficult to gauge but the Mavs make the most sense.

Odds on Which Team Danilo Gallinari Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
Dallas Mavericks+300
Los Angeles Lakers+325
Miami Heat+325
Golden State Warriors+450
Milwaukee Bucks+900
Oklahoma City Thunder+900
Toronto Raptors+1200
Portland Trail Blazers+1400

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada


Serge Ibaka Odds

Serge Ibaka has quietly been one of the best big men in the NBA over the last three seasons with his ability to rebound, defend and shoot the three. As the league has evolved, his skill set has become more attractive for a championship contender and while the Raptors are the favorites to retain his services, they might not be able to keep him at his asking price.

Much like Gallinari, this could be Ibaka’s final chance to get a large payday in his career and he’s already got his championship that he won with the Raptors in 2019. That’s why teams like the Knicks (+650) or Hornets (+800) could be in play as well because those are two of the few NBA teams that have cap space and have less than ideal talent at Ibaka’s position.

He’ll likely re-sign with Toronto but keep looking for news about the Raptors and their intentions on Ibaka and Kyle Lowry because if Masai Ujiri gives any hint of a rebuild, Ibaka is as good as gone.

Odds on Which Team Serge Ibaka Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
Toronto Raptors+125
Miami Heat+550
New York Knicks+650
Golden State Warriors+650
Charlotte Hornets+800
Los Angeles Clippers+900
Houston Rockets+1000
New Orleans Pelicans+1200

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada


Derrick Rose Odds

Not quite the player that moves the needle, like when he was winning MVP of the league, but Derrick Rose can still be an effective NBA player. The knee injuries have made him a different player than the one who was once the best young point guard in the league, but he could certainly help a team like the Lakers or Clippers in the quest for the 2021 NBA championship.

The Lakers make the most sense for Rose since they wouldn’t have to part with any assets to acquire him, but keep an eye on the Philadelphia 76ers at +900. Although Rose is not the type of player that new Sixers president Daryl Morey usually invests in, the fact remains that the Sixers NEED a backup point guard desperately. Philly looked lost in the bubble when Ben Simmons got hurt and their roster depth is atrocious.

Odds on Which Team Derrick Rose Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
Detroit Pistons+175
Los Angeles Lakers+175
Los Angeles Clippers+450
Milwaukee Bucks+600
Philadelphia 76ers+900

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada


Best Of The Rest – NBA Free Agency Odds

The NBA free agency props listed below are the ones where movement seems unlikely, whether it may be a case of a team being all but a lock to re-sign its free agent or a case in which players, like Andre Drummond or Gordon Hayward for example, would be imbeciles to opt out of their current contracts.

Here are the best of the rest for free agency odds. Nearly all are odds-on favorites to re-sign or stay put with their current team:

Odds on Which Team Andre Drummond Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
Cleveland Cavaliers-450
Boston Celtics+550
Toronto Raptors+1400
Charlotte Hornets+1600
Los Angeles Clippers+1800

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada

Odds on Which Team Brandon Ingram Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
New Orleans Pelicans-900
New York Knicks+1200
Atlanta Hawks+1200
Denver Nuggets+1400

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada

Odds on Which Team DeMar DeRozan Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
San Antonio Spurs-175
Detroit Pistons+750
Brooklyn Nets+800
Milwaukee Bucks+850
Miami Heat+1200
Orlando Magic+1400
Chicago Bulls+1400
Charlotte Hornets+1600

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada

Odds on Which Team Fred VanVleet Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
Toronto Raptors-225
Phoenix Suns+525
New York Knicks+750
Detroit Pistons+750
Atlanta Hawks+1400

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada

Odds on Which Team Gordon Hayward Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
Boston Celtics-250
Indiana Pacers+450
Atlanta Hawks+1000
Memphis Grizzlies+1200
Detroit Pistons+1400
New York Knicks+1600

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada

Odds on Which Team Jerami Grant Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
Denver Nuggets-400
Miami Heat+850
Atlanta Hawks+1200
Phoenix Suns+1400
New York Knicks+1600
Detroit Pistons+1600
Sacramento Kings+1800

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada

Odds on Which Team Jrue Holiday Will be on for Start of 2021 NBA Season
TeamOdds
New Orleans Pelicans+200
Brooklyn Nets+350
Indiana Pacers+550
Golden State Warriors+600
Denver Nuggets+600
Miami Heat+900
Dallas Mavericks+1200
Atlanta Hawks+1200

Odds as of November 10 at Bovada