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Odds of a James Harden Trade and Where He’s Most Likely to Go

James Harden Trade Odds November 17, 2020

We’re almost a month into the 2020-21 NBA regular season and the James Harden trade story will not die. Despite Harden’s comments to the media following a Rockets loss, oddsmakers are hinting that his time in Houston may not be coming to an end as quickly as this year’s trade deadline.

The best basketball betting sites have been tracking James Harden odds since the start of NBA free agency and now have released betting props on whether he’ll be traded by the deadline and where he could end up. Bovada has odds at +200 (33.3 percent implied probability) that the Beard will be dealt by the proposed March 25 deadline, with “No” coming back at -300.

As far as which team is likely to trade for the reigning NBA scoring champion, BetOnline Sportsbook has the Philadelphia 76ers with the best odds at +150, followed by the Brooklyn Nets (+200), Miami Heat (+275), Boston Celtics (+900) and Milwaukee Bucks (+900) as the top five teams on the oddsboard to acquire James Harden.

Will James Harden Be Traded?

Will James Harden Be Traded before NBA Trade Deadline?
OptionOdds
Yes-200
No+300

Odds as of January 13 at Bovada

The writing certainly seems to be on the wall that James Harden no longer wants to be with the team as the Houston Rockets are 2-6 SU in eight games with him in the lineup. 

In January, Harden has looked to be out of sorts as he’s only averaging 17.7 points in five games and has scored fewer than 20 points in three of the last four games.

The three-time scoring champion and former NBA MVP is a top-five player in the NBA and those types of talents don’t usually become available to trade for, especially with three years still left on their contract.

Usually, it happens in a race against the clock when a team seeks to move its top player because he doesn’t intend to re-sign and they fear they’ll lose him for nothing.

Houston is at a bit of a crossroads right now from a roster perspective. The Rockets already moved Russell Westbrook for John Wall in hopes of pairing Harden with a more traditional point guard and now Harden wants out.

The good/bad news for the Rockets is the list of potential suitors for Harden’s services just expanded as the latest reports from NBA insiders say the Beard is willing to consider other top NBA teams like the Miami Heat, Portland Trail Blazers or Toronto Raptors as a destination. Basically, any team that isn’t Houston.

Initially, his trade demand was to go only to Brooklyn or Philadelphia but trade talks fizzled after the Rockets seemingly were unimpressed with the trade packages presented by those two teams.


What Team Will James Harden Be Traded To?

James Harden Next Team Odds Via Trade
TeamOdds
Philadelphia 76ers+150
Brooklyn Nets+200
Miami Heat+275
Boston Celtics+900
Milwaukee Bucks+900
Portland Trail Blazers+900
Toronto Raptors+1000
Denver Nuggets+1600
Los Angeles Clippers+2000

Odds as of January 13 at BetOnline Sportsbook

This might be one of the hardest props to cap for James Harden odds because this type of trade situation doesn’t have much precedence. Houston is going to want a king’s ransom in return for Harden and among the teams on the list, the only team that still kind of makes sense is Philadelphia or Brooklyn. The Rockets have reportedly been looking to acquire all-star Ben Simmons in return for Harden but the Sixers may not be willing to give up more than Simmons in a potential swap.

That’s why Miami doesn’t really make sense either. The Heat won’t be trading Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo to get Harden, and while Tyler Herro is a great young talent, he’s not even in the same league as Harden.

If the Rockets are serious about trading Harden and have the team’s best interests at heart, they make a deal that gets them the best asset in return. On this list, only Philly and to a lesser extent Brooklyn have the high-end talent to make a reasonable trade work. The Nets could offer a package of Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie and Jarrett Allen. Even Kyrie Irving could be on the table.

The only way I see Harden getting moved and the Rockets being satisfied with the return is some sort of three-team trade that could see lots of different players moving in different directions. Even then, projecting where Harden would end up in that scenario seems like just an educated guess at this stage.