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Atlanta Should Rebound at Home vs Philadelphia

Nothing can slow Joel Embiid down as he looks to lead the Philadelphia 76ers to victory Friday in Game 3 of their second-round playoff series with host Atlanta. Despite dealing with a knee injury and a difficult frontcourt matchup, Embiid averaged 39.5 points for the 76ers (54-25 SU, 42-33-4 ATS) as they split the first two games of their best-of-seven with the Hawks (46-33 SU, 44-34-1 ATS).

Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks
  • Date/Time: June 11, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Arena: State Farm Arena
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: 76ers -1.5 | O/U 223.5 (Line History)
  • 76ers vs Hawks Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

Philadelphia kicked off the betting cycle as a 1.5-point favorite, but the line has shifted to -1 across most of the industry. The total has also seen slight movement, rising from 223.5 to 224.5 across the board.

Philadelphia News & Notes

It’s unfathomable that Embiid was questionable to even appear in Game 1 after suffering a torn meniscus in his right knee. Not only has he shown up, he has been absolutely dominant against a worthy center opponent in Clint Capela, following up a 38-point showing in the series-opening loss with 40 points and 13 rebounds in a pivotal 118-102 home triumph in Game 2.

Embiid’s daily fantasy cost and player prop totals are going to be sky-high for Friday’s Game 3 – but it’s clear that the 76ers need him performing at this level to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. Philadelphia’s bench play is of particular concern as the series shifts to Atlanta, with the Hawks reserves outscoring the 76ers’ bench players by an 83-49 margin to date.

Atlanta News & Notes

As great as it was for the Hawks to pull out a stunning road win in Game 1, everything went right for them at the offensive end – and they simply couldn’t replicate that success in Game 2. Atlanta reverted to more normal shooting rates (45.8 percent from the floor, 36.7 percent from three-point range, 83.3 percent from the foul line) and was no match for a 76ers team that shot 52.9 percent.

While you can’t boil down a team’s chances of success or failure to one player stat, it’s evident that Trey Young’s three-point shooting is an important measuring stick for the Hawks. He shot 39.3 percent from deep in the 36 wins in which he appeared during the regular season, and just 26.6 percent in 27 losses. That trend has continued in this series, as Young shot just 1-for-7 from long range in the Game 2 defeat.

Betting Pick: Hawks +1 (-110)

The bench splits are concerning, as is Philadelphia’s 21-17 SU road record this season (including a 112-94 loss in Atlanta with Embiid in the lineup). Embiid will be a handful, but the Hawks have enough weapons to earn a 14th straight home win.

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Shark Bites
  • Philadelphia is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
  • Atlanta is 13-0 SU in its last 13 home games.
  • The UNDER is 8-2 in the Hawks’ past 10 games.