Our NBA player prop picks were once again hurt by a late casualty of the injury report with Chet Holmgren against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday, but thankfully it didn't hinder our units as we connected on the other three picks.
Here are four player prop expert picks to keep the momentum going on Thursday, including an assists prop for Los Angeles Lakers megastar Luka Doncic at plus money (+112) as the New York Knicks visit Crypto.com Arena on March 6, 2025.
Luka Doncic OVER 8.5 Assists vs. Knicks (+112)
Preview: New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. ET
Dallas Mavericks fans must be sick to their stomaches witnessing the greatness of their former five-time All-NBA First Teamer looking like his old self out in Hollywood while winning games in the process. Los Angeles has won six games in a row with Doncic averaging a near triple-double of 27 points, nine rebounds, and 8.8 assists across those victories, and the Knicks' 20th-ranked defense since the All-Star break should be next to feel his wrath.
Doncic has reached an OVER on 8.5 assists in each of his last two games, and is just coming off a 15-dime performance in a 21-point win against the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday. New York is giving up the 19th-most assists to opponents over its last seven outings, and did allow Doncic to have 11 assists on Feb. 8 of last year while he was suiting up for Dallas.
Even though he's only exceeded 8.5 assists three times out of a possible nine times in Lakers colors, some of that can be attributed to him getting acclimated to his new surroundings and adjusting to the tendencies of his teammates. Any initial jitters are no longer an issue, so whether or not his calf is still bothersome at this time, look for Doncic to once again be a jack-of-all-trades out on the hardwood and hover around double-digit assists yet again.
Tyrese Haliburton OVER 10.5 Assists vs. Hawks (+104)
Preview: Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Speaking of double-digit assists, that's all Tyrese Haliburton has been doing as of late for the Indiana Pacers in six-straight appearances as they've gone 4-2 during that span. The league's leader in assists last season went 14 games from Jan. 12 through Feb. 20 without registering 10 or more in a game, but has now done so in each of his last six games averaging 12.5 per contest.
That run will come to an end sooner or later, but Thursday's matchup with the Atlanta Hawks feels like a safer play for it to continue at least one more time. This marks the second time Haliburton has seen Atlanta in 2024-25, and he notched nine assists in 35 minutes on Feb. 1. That's not a bad number by any means, but he will need at least 11 for an OVER here.
Of these six games in which he's had 10 or more, Haliburton has gone OVER 10.5 in five of them, which is obviously a good sign. The Hawks also own the third-worst defense overall since coming back from the break by allowing 120.5 points per 100 possessions, and opponent's are producing 29.7 assists against them (26th) over those seven games.
Quentin Grimes OVER 17.5 Points vs. Celtics (-114)
Preview: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET
We elected to go for an UNDER on a scoring prop for Quentin Grimes earlier in the week versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, if only because we didn't want to get carried away just days after he dropped 44 points on the Golden State Warriors. That decision ultimately bit us in the behind, as Grimes exceeded the OVER that night in the first half alone, finishing with 30 points on 12-of-18 shooting in what was still a blowout loss for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Let's not make that poor decision again, especially with Tyrese Maxey ruled out with a back injury and Paul George listed as questionable with a bad back. The reigning champion Boston Celtics are playing on the second night of a back to back at TD Garden, and Grimes will undoubtedly be one of Philadelphia's top scoring options alongside potentially George and Kelly Oubre Jr.
Oddsmakers have the Sixers listed as the 14-point road underdogs, as well, and the only way for the visitors to stay competitive is attempt to keep pace offensively and not get down on the scoreboard by too much, too quickly. Grimes needs to have free reign to put up points because head coach Nick Nurse's options are dwindling quickly.
Franz Wagner UNDER 32.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Bulls (-125)
Preview: Chicago Bulls vs. Orlando Magic, 7 p.m. ET
The downfall of the Orlando Magic needs to be chronicled, because while a spot in the play-in tournament over in the Eastern Conference is all but secured at this point, it's feels disappointing considering the expectations coming off a competitive first-round series with the Cleveland Cavaliers a year ago, with the two sides now heading in opposite directions.
The Magic dropped their last two games to a Toronto Raptors team that was clearly trying to tank the result, and have now lost four in a row and five of their last six heading into this meeting with the Chicago Bulls at the Kia Center. Franz Wagner is contributing 24.6 points on 48.6-percent shooting since Feb. 20, but he's one of only two players on the roster averaging 10 or more points.
He'll need at least 33 combined points and rebounds against Chicago for an OVER here, but Wagner has only accomplished that once since Feb. 12 and that was in the Magic's most recent outing with Toronto in which he barely hit the OVER at 33 exactly (28 points and five rebounds). He went UNDER in the seven prior games, and that's why we'll lean towards that side here.
