March Madness Matchups: 7 vs 10 Betting History & Trends

The difference between a No. 10 seed and a No. 7 seed is often very small and is a spot in the March Madness bracket where you can usually find some good betting value.

Those No. 10 seeds had been moneymakers, going 11-5 against the spread and 9-7 straight up in the four NCAA Tournaments from 2009 through 2012. Though No. 7 seeds rebounded well the three years following, going 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS, the 2016 bracket belonged to the lower seed. No. 10 seeds went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in 2016 with Syracuse carrying that momentum all the way to the Elite Eight. But 2017 was a different story – inconsistency has been one constant in this matchup – with the No. 7 seed going 3-1 SU and ATS. 

In 2018, No. 7 seeds again went 3-1 SU and ATS. It was the opposite story in 2019, however, as the No. 10 seeds went 3-1 SU and ATS. The only 7 seed to win outright and cover was Wofford, as the Terriers beat Seton Hall 84-68 while easily covering as 3.5-point favorites.

This bracket position will typically see fading teams from power conferences that struggled down the stretch against surging mid-majors, which can result in a dangerous matchup for the higher seed. While that may not have exactly been the case in 2018 when the buzzer finally sounded in three of the four games that saw the No. 7 seed advance, digging a little deeper tells a slightly different story.

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Should you be betting the No. 7 or No. 10 seed?

Only one game between No. 7 and No. 10 seeds was settled by double-digit points in 2016, with Syracuse topping Dayton 70-51 as the lower seed. The other three games saw a combined scoring margin of 14 points between the winners and losers. Syracuse and VCU were the two No. 10 seeds to progress past the first round, but the Rams were bumped in the second round against Oklahoma. Temple was close to becoming the third, taking Iowa to overtime before the Hawkeyes hit a buzzer-beater to win.

The last No. 7 seed to close as an underdog was in 2015 when VCU lost to Ohio State, but the Rams covered their +3.5 closing spread. Wichita State and Michigan State both won as the No. 7 seed in 2015, but the Shockers failed to cover as they only beat Indiana by five points.

Michigan State would go on to make the Final Four, just the second No. 7 seed to do so after UConn accomplished the feat a year earlier. A No. 10 seed has never made it to the Final Four, with seven teams making it as far as the Elite Eight. Davidson made it there in 2008 as a No. 10, suffering a tough 59-57 loss to No. 1 seed Kansas despite a tremendous NCAA Tournament run by star guard Stephen Curry, who became a first-round draft pick by the Golden State Warriors the next year.

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9