Penn State featured in our March Madness 7 vs 10 betting history and trends

March Madness Matchups: 7 vs 10 Betting History & Trends

The difference between a No. 10 seed and a No. 7 seed is often very small and is a spot in the March Madness bracket where you can usually find some good betting value.

The No. 7 seeds came close to a clean sweep in 2023, going 3-1 SU and ATS. The only upset came from lower-seeded Penn State knocking off Texas A&M, who entered the contest as a modest 2.5-point favorite. 

The No. 10 seeds had been moneymakers, going 11-5 against the spread and 9-7 straight up in the four NCAA Tournaments from 2009 through 2012. Though No. 7 seeds rebounded well the three years following, going 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS, the 2016 bracket belonged to the lower seed.

No. 10 seeds went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in 2016 with Syracuse carrying that momentum all the way to the Elite Eight. But 2017 was a different story – inconsistency has been one constant in this matchup – with the No. 7 seed going 3-1 SU and ATS. 

Prediction Machine Banner 2

In 2018, No. 7 seeds again went 3-1 SU and ATS. It was the opposite story in 2019, however, as the No. 10 seeds went 3-1 SU and ATS. The only 7 seed to win outright and cover was Wofford, as the Terriers beat Seton Hall 84-68 while easily covering as 3.5-point favorites.

In 2021, No. 10 seeds went 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS with one of the games resulting in a forfeit due to COVID-19. With the No. 7 Oregon Ducks advancing via forfeit, the only No. 7 seed to actually win their game was the Florida Gators, who won 75-70 in overtime over the Virginia Tech Hokies.

Last year, No. 7 seeds went 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS, with Miami upsetting USC 68-66 for the only outright win and cover by a lower seed.

This bracket position will typically see fading teams from power conferences that struggled down the stretch against surging mid-majors, which can result in a dangerous matchup for the higher seed.

While that may not have exactly been the case in 2018 when the buzzer finally sounded in three of the four games that saw the No. 7 seed advance, digging a little deeper tells a slightly different story.

Should You Be Betting The No. 7 Or No. 10 Seed?

Only one game between No. 7 and No. 10 seeds was settled by double-digit points in 2016, with Syracuse topping Dayton 70-51 as the lower seed.

The other three games in 2016 saw a combined scoring margin of 14 points between the winners and losers. Syracuse and VCU were the two No. 10 seeds to progress past the first round, but the Rams were bumped in the second round against Oklahoma. Temple was close to becoming the third, taking Iowa to overtime before the Hawkeyes hit a buzzer-beater to win.

The last No. 7 seed to close as an underdog was in 2021 when Florida defeated the Virginia Tech Hokies, as the Gators covered their +1.0 closing spread. Wichita State and Michigan State both won as the No. 7 seed in 2015, but the Shockers failed to cover as they only beat Indiana by five points.

Michigan State would go on to make the Final Four, just the second No. 7 seed to do so after UConn accomplished the feat a year earlier. A No. 10 seed has never made it to the Final Four, with seven teams making it as far as the Elite Eight.

Davidson made it there in 2008 as a No. 10, suffering a tough 59-57 loss to No. 1 seed Kansas despite a tremendous NCAA Tournament run by star guard Stephen Curry. Curry later became a first-round draft pick by the Golden State Warriors the next year.

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9

#7 Seed vs #10 Seed
#7 SeedScore#10 SeedScoreDateATS WinWin SeedATS Seed
Missouri76Utah State652023-03-16Missouri77
Michigan State72USC622023-03-17Michigan State77
Northwestern75Boise State672023-03-16Northwestern77
Texas A&M59Penn State762023-03-16Penn State1010
Michigan State74Davidson732022-03-18PUSH7PUSH
Murray State92San Francisco872022-03-17Murray State77
USC66Miami (FL)682022-03-18Miami (FL)1010
Ohio State54Loyola Chicago412022-03-18Ohio State 77
Florida75Virginia Tech702021-03-19Florida77
Wofford84Seton Hall682019-03-21Wofford77
Rhode Island83Oklahoma782018-03-15Rhode Island77
Texas A&M73Providence692018-03-16Texas A&M77
South Carolina93Marquette732017-03-17South Carolina77
Michigan92Oklahoma State912017-03-17Oklahoma State710
Saint Mary’s85VCU772017-03-17Saint Mary’s77
Dayton58Wichita State642017-03-17Dayton107
Oregon State67VCU752016-03-18VCU1010
Wichita State81Indiana762015-03-20Indiana710
Michigan State70Georgia632015-03-20Michigan State77
VCU72Ohio State752015-03-19VCU107
New Mexico53Stanford582014-03-21Stanford1010
Texas87Arizona State852014-03-20PUSH7 
Connecticut89Saint Joseph’s812014-03-20Connecticut77
Notre Dame58Iowa State762013-03-22Iowa State1010
San Diego State70Oklahoma552013-03-22San Diego State77
Notre Dame63Xavier672012-03-16Xavier1010
Saint Mary’s69Purdue722012-03-16Purdue1010
Gonzaga77West Virginia542012-03-15Gonzaga77
Texas A&M50Florida State572011-03-18Florida State1010
UCLA78Michigan State762011-03-17UCLA77
Temple66Penn State642011-03-17Penn State710
Oklahoma State59Georgia Tech642010-03-19Georgia Tech1010
Richmond71Saint Mary’s802010-03-18Saint Mary’s1010
Boston College55USC722009-03-20USC1010
Butler81South Alabama612008-03-21Butler77
Miami78Saint Mary’s642008-03-21Miami77
West Virginia75Arizona652008-03-20West Virginia77
UNLV67Georgia Tech632007-03-16UNLV77
Boston College84Texas Tech752007-03-15Boston College77
California52NC State582006-03-17NC State1010
Georgetown54Northern Iowa492006-03-17Georgetown77
Wichita State86Seton Hall662006-03-16Wichita State77
Southern Illinois65Saint Mary’s562005-03-18Southern Illinois77
Charlotte63NC State752005-03-18NC State1010
West Virginia63Creighton612005-03-17West Virginia77
Memphis59South Carolina432004-03-19Memphis77
Michigan State66Nevada722004-03-18Nevada1010
Saint Joseph’s63Auburn652003-03-21Auburn1010
Michigan State79Colorado642003-03-21Michigan State77
Memphis71Arizona State842003-03-20Arizona State1010
NC State69Michigan State582002-03-15NC State77
Oklahoma State61Kent State692002-03-14Kent State1010
Wake Forest83Pepperdine742002-03-14Wake Forest77
Wake Forest63Butler792001-03-16Butler1010
Penn State69Providence592001-03-16Penn State77
Oregon71Seton Hall722000-03-17Seton Hall1010
Washington58Miami (Ohio)591999-03-12Miami (Ohio)1010
St. John’s64Detroit661998-03-13Detroit1010
Massachusetts46Saint Louis511998-03-13Saint Louis1010
Temple52West Virginia821998-03-12West Virginia1010
New Mexico69Kansas State481996-03-15New Mexico77
Maryland79Santa Clara911996-03-15Santa Clara1010

March Madness 7 vs 10 Betting History FAQ

I want to bet on the 7 vs 10 seed March Madness games. Where can I do that?

You can bet on the 7 vs 10 seed March Madness games at the best online March Madness betting sites. Our NCAAB betting sites page features the top sites to bet on March Madness. Every NCAA Tournament sportsbook is listed in order as the best place to bet on March Madness.

Where can I learn how to bet on the 7 vs 10 seed March Madness games?

You can learn how to bet on the 7 vs 10 seed March Madness games by visiting our how to bet on March Madness page. Our “How To” betting guide contains March Madness betting strategy and March Madness betting tips. That way, you can determine the best way to place bets on March Madness games.

When was the last time a 10 seed beat a 7 seed in March Madness?

The last time a 10 seed beat a 7 seed in March Madness was in 2023 when the No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions knocked off the No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies 76-59.