The difference between a No. 10 seed and a No. 7 seed is often very small and is a spot in the March Madness bracket where you can usually find some good betting value.
Those No. 10 seeds had been moneymakers, going 11-5 against the spread and 9-7 straight up in the four NCAA Tournaments from 2009 through 2012. Though No. 7 seeds rebounded well the three years following, going 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS, the 2016 bracket belonged to the lower seed. No. 10 seeds went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in 2016 with Syracuse carrying that momentum all the way to the Elite Eight. But 2017 was a different story – inconsistency has been one constant in this matchup – with the No. 7 seed going 3-1 SU and ATS.
In 2018, No. 7 seeds again went 3-1 SU and ATS. It was the opposite story in 2019, however, as the No. 10 seeds went 3-1 SU and ATS. The only 7 seed to win outright and cover was Wofford, as the Terriers beat Seton Hall 84-68 while easily covering as 3.5-point favorites.
In 2021, No. 10 seeds went 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS with one of the games resulting in a forfeit due to COVID-19. With the No. 7 Oregon Ducks advancing via forfeit, the only No. 7 seed to actually win their game was the Florida Gators, who won 75-70 in overtime over the Virginia Tech Hokies.
This bracket position will typically see fading teams from power conferences that struggled down the stretch against surging mid-majors, which can result in a dangerous matchup for the higher seed. While that may not have exactly been the case in 2018 when the buzzer finally sounded in three of the four games that saw the No. 7 seed advance, digging a little deeper tells a slightly different story.
Should You Be Betting The No. 7 Or No. 10 Seed?
Only one game between No. 7 and No. 10 seeds was settled by double-digit points in 2016, with Syracuse topping Dayton 70-51 as the lower seed. The other three games saw a combined scoring margin of 14 points between the winners and losers. Syracuse and VCU were the two No. 10 seeds to progress past the first round, but the Rams were bumped in the second round against Oklahoma. Temple was close to becoming the third, taking Iowa to overtime before the Hawkeyes hit a buzzer-beater to win.
The last No. 7 seed to close as an underdog was in 2021 when Florida defeated the Virginia Tech Hokies, as the Gators covered their +1.0 closing spread. Wichita State and Michigan State both won as the No. 7 seed in 2015, but the Shockers failed to cover as they only beat Indiana by five points.
Michigan State would go on to make the Final Four, just the second No. 7 seed to do so after UConn accomplished the feat a year earlier. A No. 10 seed has never made it to the Final Four, with seven teams making it as far as the Elite Eight. Davidson made it there in 2008 as a No. 10, suffering a tough 59-57 loss to No. 1 seed Kansas despite a tremendous NCAA Tournament run by star guard Stephen Curry. Curry later became a first-round draft pick by the Golden State Warriors the next year.
|#7 Seed||Score||#10 Seed||Score||Date||ATS Win||Win Seed||ATS Seed|
|Rhode Island||83||Oklahoma||78||2018-03-15||Rhode Island||7||7|
|Texas A&M||73||Providence||69||2018-03-16||Texas A&M||7||7|
|South Carolina||93||Marquette||73||2017-03-17||South Carolina||7||7|
|Michigan||92||Oklahoma State||91||2017-03-17||Oklahoma State||7||10|
|Saint Mary’s||85||VCU||77||2017-03-17||Saint Mary’s||7||7|
|Michigan State||70||Georgia||63||2015-03-20||Michigan State||7||7|
|Notre Dame||58||Iowa State||76||2013-03-22||Iowa State||10||10|
|San Diego State||70||Oklahoma||55||2013-03-22||San Diego State||7||7|
|Texas A&M||50||Florida State||57||2011-03-18||Florida State||10||10|
|Temple||66||Penn State||64||2011-03-17||Penn State||7||10|
|Oklahoma State||59||Georgia Tech||64||2010-03-19||Georgia Tech||10||10|
|Richmond||71||Saint Mary’s||80||2010-03-18||Saint Mary’s||10||10|
|West Virginia||75||Arizona||65||2008-03-20||West Virginia||7||7|
|Boston College||84||Texas Tech||75||2007-03-15||Boston College||7||7|
|California||52||NC State||58||2006-03-17||NC State||10||10|
|Wichita State||86||Seton Hall||66||2006-03-16||Wichita State||7||7|
|Southern Illinois||65||Saint Mary’s||56||2005-03-18||Southern Illinois||7||7|
|Charlotte||63||NC State||75||2005-03-18||NC State||10||10|
|West Virginia||63||Creighton||61||2005-03-17||West Virginia||7||7|
|Michigan State||79||Colorado||64||2003-03-21||Michigan State||7||7|
|Memphis||71||Arizona State||84||2003-03-20||Arizona State||10||10|
|NC State||69||Michigan State||58||2002-03-15||NC State||7||7|
|Oklahoma State||61||Kent State||69||2002-03-14||Kent State||10||10|
|Wake Forest||83||Pepperdine||74||2002-03-14||Wake Forest||7||7|
|Penn State||69||Providence||59||2001-03-16||Penn State||7||7|
|Oregon||71||Seton Hall||72||2000-03-17||Seton Hall||10||10|
|Washington||58||Miami (Ohio)||59||1999-03-12||Miami (Ohio)||10||10|
|Massachusetts||46||Saint Louis||51||1998-03-13||Saint Louis||10||10|
|Temple||52||West Virginia||82||1998-03-12||West Virginia||10||10|
|New Mexico||69||Kansas State||48||1996-03-15||New Mexico||7||7|
|Maryland||79||Santa Clara||91||1996-03-15||Santa Clara||10||10|
March Madness 7 vs 10 Betting History FAQ
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Where can I learn how to bet on the 7 vs 10 seed March Madness game?
You can learn how to bet on the 7 vs 10 seed March Madness game by visiting our how to bet on March Madness page. Our “How To” betting guide contains March Madness betting strategy and March Madness betting tips. That way, you can determine the best way to place bets on March Madness games.
When was the last time a 7 seed beat a 10 seed in March Madness?
The last time a 7 seed beat a 10 seed in March Madness was on March 22, 2019 when the 7th seeded Wofford Terriers took care of the 10th seeded Seton Hall Pirates by a final score of 84-68. During that same year, there were three 7 vs 10 upsets as Nevada lost to Florida, Cincinnati lost to Iowa, and Louisville lost to Minnesota.
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Odds Shark Staff Fri, Sep 16, 2:48pm