Florida vs Houston National Championship Preview & Picks: Defense Wins Championships

March Madness comes to a rousing conclusion on Monday, April 7th as Florida vs Houston tip off in the National Championship game.

We've reach the scintillating end of college basketball's yearly showcase. Before "One Shining Moment" plays for one last time in 2025, take a peek at my Florida vs Houston National Championship betting preview, complete with my best bets and all the odds. 

Florida vs Houston Odds

Matchup: Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars, April 7th, 8:50 pm ET

Odds as of April 6, 2025 at Sportsbook

Florida vs Houston preview & picks

Walter Clayton Jr. leads his Florida Gators into the National Championship game after becoming the first player since Larry Bird in 1979 to score 30 points in both the Elite Eight and Final Four. 

Florida limited one-time March Madness Most Outstanding Player favorite Johni Broome to just three second-half points, and the Gators stifled the Tigers to pull out the victory. 

Meanwhile, Kelvin Sampson's Houston Cougars top-ranked defense grinded out a comeback for the ages over the Duke Blue Devils. Houston's full-court pressure stymied Duke's shooters, as the Cougars held the Blue Devils to just one made field goal in the final 10 minutes of the contest.

Houston's miraculous comeback started with 10 minutes to go when they held Duke to 9pts for the rest of the game! Here are those 10 minutes of defense... pic.twitter.com/xsi0a2ykVV

— Michael Jagacki (@Mike_Jagacki) April 6, 2025

And now, fans and bettors alike are treated with a classic battle of a high-flying offense against the toughest defense in the country in the National Championship game. Florida will be looking to win their first title since Billy Donovan's teams went back-to-back in 2006-2007 (shout out Al Horford for still plying his trade in the NBA nearly two decades later). While the Cougars are making their first appearance in the final since 1984.

Clayton is an outstanding offensive player, and Florida has a ton of depth. But, as the old saying goes, defense wins championships. After watching Houston place the best offense in the history of KenPom into what looked like a medieval torcher chamber on Saturday night, I'm riding with the underdog Cougars. 

Pick: Houston Moneyline (-104)

Florida vs Houston Prop Bet: Alex Condon UNDER 14.5 Points + Rebounds -120

Condon was a non-factor against Auburn in the Final Four. In fact, the 6'11 forward contributed just one point and four rebounds in 23 minutes. 

Condon's failed to exceed 14.5 points and rebounds in four of his last five games, and is unlikely to play a huge role against the length and rebounding tenacity of Houston. 

Florida vs Houston Betting Trends