Will Rogers and the Bulldogs are favored over the Red Raiders in Liberty Bowl betting odds.

Liberty Bowl: Bulldogs Solid Favorites Over Red Raiders

Texas Tech (6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) and Mississippi State (7-5, 7-5) will meet for the first time ever in the Autozone Liberty Bowl in Memphis, with the Bulldogs Sportsbook as solid favorites. Mississippi State has been here before, appearing in the Liberty Bowl four times and going 3-1 in those games.

Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs Mississippi State
  • Date/Time: December 28, 6:45 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Liberty Bowl Memorial
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Sportsbook Odds: Mississippi State -8.5 | O/U 59.5 (Line History)
  • Texas Tech vs Mississippi State Matchup Report

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Mississippi State opened as an 8.5-point favorite coming off a season in which it had three wins over teams in the CFP rankings, two of them by double digits. The total opened at 59.5 points. Both teams average about 30 points per game and both have been playing better defense of late, with each squad allowing less than 25 points per game over its last two outings.

Texas Tech News & Notes

Although the Red Raiders lost four of their last five games, they held Baylor and Oklahoma State, the two representatives in the Big 12 championship game, to a combined 50 points. Their one win in that stretch also came against a tough Iowa State team that was in and out of the rankings all season.

The Texas Tech defense has particularly stepped up coming out of halftime. In their last six games, the Red Raiders have allowed just three points on the Sportsbook drive of the second half.

One area in which Texas Tech has room to improve is taking care of the football. The Raiders have committed at least one turnover in every game this season and are -8 in turnover differential.

See Odds Shark’s Best College Football Betting Sites

Mississippi State News & Notes

After losing three of four games at the beginning of the season, the Bulldogs rebounded and collected four wins in their final six games. Behind Mike Leach’s air raid offense, Mississippi State set a single-season school record with 486 completions, topping the previous standard by 113. Quarterback Will Rogers had 4,449 passing yards, second-most in the country.

One number to keep in mind is 30. Mississippi State is 5-0 this season when scoring 30 or more points and just 2-5 when failing to reach that level, making it a good point to mark if you want to give the points and go with the Bulldogs.

How Texas Tech Will Cover

The Red Raiders can win their first bowl game since 2013 if they keep the Bulldogs offense in check. If they play with the same energy they did against Baylor, they can keep Mississippi State under 30 points and give themselves a good shot at the upset.

How Mississippi State Will Cover

The Bulldogs can grab their second straight bowl win if they can control the time of possession and somewhat limit their number of passing plays. They are 4-1 this season when Rogers attempts fewer than 50 passes.

Computer Pick: Mississippi State -8.5

  • Best Spread
    -110
    -110
    MISST-10
    +10TTECH
  • Best Moneyline
    -380
    +310
    MISST
    TTECH
  • Best Total
    -112
    -108
    Over58
    58Under

For more college football bowl predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • Texas Tech is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
  • Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
  • The UNDER is 4-2 in Texas Tech’s last 6 games.
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