It’s the longest-running college football rivalry in the South—and also a minefield for sports bettors, given what we’ve seen from Georgia and Auburn as of late.
The Bulldogs have dropped two straight games ATS, squeaking by 24-point underdog Kentucky and falling to 2-point underdog Alabama, both on the road. Meanwhile Auburn is the lone team in the SEC still winless ATS, after blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead to Oklahoma and losing by six as a 1.5-point home underdog. And this week the Tigers venture into Sanford Stadium, where the Bulldogs are a 24.5-point favorite.
Both teams are inherently difficult to trust. Georgia infamously plays up or down to competition, and going back to last season has now failed to cover in nine of its last 15 games against FBS opponents. One of those ATS losses was at Auburn in 2023, when a Tigers team using many of the same players it has now lost 27-20 as a 14-point home underdog.
But … goodness, those Tigers. Auburn has now lost outright to six of the last seven FBS programs it’s faced, a stretch that includes home defeats to New Mexico State and Cal. Under coach Hugh Freeze, who came in to try to rescue this program prior to last season, the Tigers are 6-10 ATS against FBS opponents. But two of those rare covers were against Georgia and Alabama last season, adding another incomprehensible wrinkle to this conundrum.
The natural play here would be to assume Georgia comes out still stinging from that emotional loss at Alabama last week, and lays it on Auburn to the tune of 42-10—which was the score the last time the Tigers played in Athens, under former coach Bryan Harsin in 2022. Auburn was a 27.5-point underdog that day. Since then, the Bulldogs have had eight opportunities to cover lines of 20 points or greater against FBS opponents. They’ve done it just twice, against Vanderbilt in 2022 and Florida State in the bowl game following last season.
Georgia has won seven straight over Auburn, and the idea of the Tigers winning outright in Sanford Stadium as a +1200 moneyline underdog seems fanciful at best. But when it comes to betting on the South’s longest-running rivalry, that’s about the only thing that feels assured.
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Bulldogs win! Sort of
Ring those cowbells! If you were brave enough to bet on Mississippi State, at least. The Bulldogs may have lost to Texas 35-13 last week, but they also managed to prevent the Longhorns from covering the spread for the first time this season.
Texas entered that game with a 4-0 ATS record against FBS opponents, and having covered some huge numbers in the process—32 against Colorado State, 34.5 against Texas-San Antonio, and 44.5 against Louisiana-Monroe. Mississippi State went to Austin as a 38-point underdog and without starting quarterback Blake Shapen, knocked out with a season-ending shoulder injury the week before.
Safe to say, it didn’t look good for the Bulldogs—who also hadn’t covered against an FBS opponent all season. But Mississippi State hung in there, trailing just 14-6 at half. When Texas went ahead 28-6 and it seemed the inevitable blowout was coming, the Bulldogs fought back with a late touchdown run from backup quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. Given that Mississippi State was coming off consecutive blowout losses to Toledo and Florida, the final score was somewhat respectable.
With Texas and Ole Miss each suffering their first ATS defeats last week, Tennessee is now the lone SEC team unbeaten against the spread versus FBS competition. The Vols put that 3-0 mark on the line Saturday as 13.5-point favorites at Arkansas.
Around the SEC
Was there a more surprising result last week than Kentucky 20, Ole Miss 17? The Rebels’ beaten-up offensive line looked no match for the Wildcats’ pass rush, and the resulting shocker produced Mississippi’s first outright and ATS losses this season. Ole Miss is now a 9.5-point favorite at South Carolina, which is expected to have starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers and running back Raheim Sanders back in the lineup after a week off.
Fresh off its emotional victory over Georgia, Alabama is a 23-point favorite at Vanderbilt, which the Crimson Tide has beaten 23 straight times dating back to 1985. Alabama has won the past three games in the series by 52, 59 and 34 points. Expect the scoreboard to get a workout, given the Tide and the Commodores have combined to go OVER the total in six of seven games against FBS opponents this year.
The beleaguered Florida Gators, meanwhile, are a point-spread favorite for the second straight game. After winning at Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite and then taking last week off, the Gators are a 1-point home favorite over UCF. The Knights were blown out last week as 13-point home favorites by Colorado, though they present a familiar foe in quarterback KJ Jefferson—who went off for 347 combined yards and three combined TDs in leading Arkansas to an overtime victory in the Swamp last year.
Player Prop Watch
SEC players to watch for potential prop bets in Week 6, should they be made available:
- Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has passed for at least two touchdowns and run for two touchdowns in all four of his games this season
- Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his four games this season
- Kentucky running back Ray Davis has scored at least one rushing or receiving touchdown in all five of his games so far this season
- Arkansas running back Ja’Quinden Jackson has rushed for a touchdown in all five of his games so far this season
- Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson has rushed for at least one touchdown in all four of his games this season
- Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed has thrown two touchdown passes in each of his first three starts this season
- Missouri receiver Luther Burden has scored a rushing or receiving touchdown in four of his games this season
- Ole Miss quarterback Jaxon Dart has thrown at least one touchdown pass in all five of his games this season
SEC 3-Pack Week 6
As always, here's our weekly SEC 3-pack!
Texas A&M -1.5 Missouri
Regardless of Conner Weigman’s health status, the Aggies seem to have found their quarterback of the future in Marcel Reed, who’s looked very poised over his first three starts. Missouri enters its first road game having squeaked by two double-digit underdogs at home, lacking some big-play punch on offense, and not quite passing the eye test as a top-10 team.
Tennessee at Arkansas UNDER 60
The Vols are going to try and run, run, and run the ball some more behind SEC rushing leader Dylan Sampson, and let their excellent defense do the rest. The Hogs have looked turnover-prone and inconsistent, while these two teams have combined to go UNDER in every SEC game they’ve played thus far.
Alabama at Vanderbilt OVER 55.5
Is this the let-down game for the Tide? Not quite. While Vanderbilt’s offense is better with quarterback Diego Pavia under center, the defense can give up points in bunches—both reasons the Commodores have gone OVER in all three games against FBS opponent so far this year. Expect Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe to do his thing and take over yet again.
