Flag Our Top Sportsbooks
50% BONUS Up To $1000
125% BONUS Up To $2500
50% BONUS Up To $1000
State of the Union Odds

On March 1, 2022, the 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden, will give his State of the Union address in front of the House of Assembly, which is currently majority-run by the Democratic Party, and address the country as a whole on the state of the nation.

It is interesting times, to say the least, as the country is starting to emerge from a two-year pandemic while also facing the Russia/Ukraine crisis, and the president’s ratings have been falling like the ball in New York City on New Year’s Eve.

Online sportsbook BetOnline Sportsbook has provided us with a list of State of the Union odds with one market of note being Biden’s approval rating by March 6. The sportsbook has set the line at 41 percent, which is where he currently sits, with the OVER and UNDER options both set at -115.

Joe Biden’s Approval Rating

Biden’s Approval Rating Odds
Option Odds
OVER 41 Percent -115
UNDER 41 Percent -115

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Betting on Politics can be tricky. You need to have a bit of a feel for the pulse of the nation while also having no insight into what actions may be taken by the president. That said, a Gallup poll conducted following Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in 2018 showed that there was an increase in approval following the speech in 2015, 2016 and 2018. Meanwhile, the average change from 1978 to 2014 showed that the approval rating remained the same pre- and post-speech.

The largest increase came in 1998 when Bill Clinton’s approval rating jumped a staggering 10 percentage points. Meanwhile, the largest dip in polling came with George H. W. Bush in 1990 when he saw a seven-point decline following his State of the Union.

See Odds Shark’s Best Political Betting Sites

From an odds and trends perspective, it would be a wise decision to bet the OVER 41 percent on Biden’s approval rating following the address. However, given the unrest in the country surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic along with the tensions in Eastern Europe, I think the POTUS is in an extremely difficult position and will struggle to gain any sort of traction, so I like the UNDER with the potential of his line remaining static as a safety net.

More State Of The Union Betting Odds

Along with Biden’s approval odds, there are two State of the Union prop bets that I like. One can be a parlay piece for Tuesday night while the other can be a straight-up pick.

The slam-dunk prop is whether Biden will say “economy” or “inflation” first. Currently, “economy” is favored at -600, hence the parlay piece, because a president doesn’t want to talk about inflation, which is clearly happening (just look at used car prices). Our sports betting calculator tells us that the -600 odds translate to an implied win probability of 85.71 percent.

The other prop I like is whether Biden will first say “primary/primaries” or “midterm/midterms.” For this market, “primary/primaries” is favored at -135 (bet $135 to profit $100) and while I could see value on “midterm,” I believe the correct phrase is favored. According to the midterm election odds, it looks like the result could be big wins for the Republican Party, potentially taking over the House and Senate.

Therefore, I would expect Biden to focus on the primaries that are about two years away, with Donald Trump currently favored in the 2024 Presidential Election odds. Getting out in front of that may be a wise move for Biden and the Democratic Party.

What Will Biden Say First?
Option Odds
Economy -600
Inflation +375

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

What Will Biden Say First?
Option Odds
Primary -135
Midterm -105

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

What Will Biden Say First?
Option Odds
CDC -140
Mask +100

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

What Will Biden Say First?
Option Odds
Pandemic -300
Coronavirus +200

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

What Will Biden Say First?
Option Odds
Europe -300
European Union +200

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

What Will Biden Say First?
Option Odds
NATO -200
Nuclear +150

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

What Will Biden Say First?
Option Odds
Putin -250
Zelenskyy +170

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

What Will Biden Say First?
Option Odds
Ukraine -200
Russia +160

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

First to be mentioned
Option Odds
Speaker of the House -1000
Members of Congress +900
Fellow Americans +1000
Vice-President +1200
First Lady +2500
Senate Majority Leader +2500

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Length of Address
Option Odds
UNDER 65 Minutes -120
OVER 65 Minutes -110

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Total Viewers
Option Odds
UNDER 35 Million -150
OVER 35 Million +110

Odds as of March 1 at BetOnline Sportsbook