State Of The Union Odds: Will Biden’s Approval Rating Rise Or Fall?

On March 1, 2022, the 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden, will give his State of the Union address in front of the House of Assembly, which is currently majority-run by the Democratic Party, and address the country as a whole on the state of the nation.

It is interesting times, to say the least, as the country is starting to emerge from a two-year pandemic while also facing the Russia/Ukraine crisis, and the president’s ratings have been falling like the ball in New York City on New Year’s Eve.

Online sportsbook Sportsbook has provided us with a list of State of the Union odds with one market of note being Biden’s approval rating by March 6. The sportsbook has set the line at 41 percent, which is where he currently sits, with the OVER and UNDER options both set at -115.

Joe Biden’s Approval Rating

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Betting on Politics can be tricky. You need to have a bit of a feel for the pulse of the nation while also having no insight into what actions may be taken by the president. That said, a Gallup poll conducted following Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in 2018 showed that there was an increase in approval following the speech in 2015, 2016 and 2018. Meanwhile, the average change from 1978 to 2014 showed that the approval rating remained the same pre- and post-speech.

The largest increase came in 1998 when Bill Clinton’s approval rating jumped a staggering 10 percentage points. Meanwhile, the largest dip in polling came with George H. W. Bush in 1990 when he saw a seven-point decline following his State of the Union.

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From an odds and trends perspective, it would be a wise decision to bet the OVER 41 percent on Biden’s approval rating following the address. However, given the unrest in the country surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic along with the tensions in Eastern Europe, I think the POTUS is in an extremely difficult position and will struggle to gain any sort of traction, so I like the UNDER with the potential of his line remaining static as a safety net.

More State Of The Union Betting Odds

Along with Biden’s approval odds, there are two State of the Union prop bets that I like. One can be a parlay piece for Tuesday night while the other can be a straight-up pick.

The slam-dunk prop is whether Biden will say “economy” or “inflation” first. Currently, “economy” is favored at -600, hence the parlay piece, because a president doesn’t want to talk about inflation, which is clearly happening (just look at used car prices). Our sports betting calculator tells us that the -600 odds translate to an implied win probability of 85.71 percent.

The other prop I like is whether Biden will first say “primary/primaries” or “midterm/midterms.” For this market, “primary/primaries” is favored at -135 (bet $135 to profit $100) and while I could see value on “midterm,” I believe the correct phrase is favored. According to the midterm election odds, it looks like the result could be big wins for the Republican Party, potentially taking over the House and Senate.

Therefore, I would expect Biden to focus on the primaries that are about two years away, with Donald Trump currently favored in the 2024 Presidential Election odds. Getting out in front of that may be a wise move for Biden and the Democratic Party.

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 1 at Sportsbook