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Kevin McCarthy's Republican Party is favored in the House of Representatives odds.

We’re roughly halfway through the United States’ political primary season and all signs point to Republicans flipping the House this November. Whether or not former President Donald Trump’s influence is fueling the red wave is yet to be determined, but one thing is for sure, President Joe Biden and his Democratic representatives have lots of hurdles to clear and work to do if they wish to remain the majority.

At last check, back in February, online sportsbook Bovada had Republicans pegged as -450 favorites to win back the house and Democrats as 3-to-1 underdogs. That provided the right side of the aisle an 81.8 percent implied probability of winning.

Fast-forward four months and House of Representatives odds still have Republicans favored, but now at -900, or 90 percent implied probability. The Democrats are down to 5-to-1 dogs, or 16.7 percent implied probability.

Odds To Win the 2022 House of Representatives
PartyOdds
Republicans -900
Democrats+500

Odds as of June 24 at Bovada

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Why Is The GOP Favored In The 2022 House of Representatives Odds?

In football, the most popular player on a fledgling roster is typically the backup quarterback. Right now, Joe Biden and the Democratic majority are the starters, but are enduring multiple crises at the same time:

  • High inflation, which means higher prices for everyday items
  • Record-high gas prices
  • COVID-19 aftershocks
  • Mass shootings, violence
  • Infant formula shortage
  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

And the list goes on depending which political pundit you prefer.

To be fair, it wasn’t like Democrats enjoyed an iron-clad lock on the House of Representatives. It’s a slight majority 220-210 with five vacancies. If those five open seats held previous political lines, Democrats would possess a 221-214 majority. We’re talking razor-thin.

More concerning, for the sake of democracy in action, is that through June 13, 52 percent of candidates who believe the 2020 presidential election was stolen or question voting numbers won their primaries.

This could have dire consequences not only during the midterm elections of November 2022, but could also impact 2024 presidential election odds and swing the favor more to the right than left.

The Trump Bump: Is It Real?

Former President Donald Trump likes to boast that an endorsement from him all but guarantees a win at the polls. While this isn’t always the case, the numbers never lie. Of 117 Republican candidates endorsed by Trump, 110 have won primary races, or 94 percent.

However, as FiveThirtyEight’s political team reports, most of those wins came by incumbents who had already earned their seat. If you chop up Trump’s endorsement of primary challengers to a Republican house seat, he’s 18 out of 24, which is still a respectable win rate of 74 percent.

What will be interesting to see play out in the coming months is if President Trump endorses Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for another run at that state’s highest office, or if DeSantis has his eyes on the 2024 presidency and Trump walks away from the country’s highest office.