Odds are strong that the vast majority of the 74.2 million people who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 won’t be swayed by the January 6 committee prime-time hearings or change their vote if 45 runs again in 2024.
However, that doesn’t mean the former president’s reputation and legacy will survive unscathed by the virtual receipts of the day many of his staunch supporters rushed the U.S. Capitol building.
Politics and optics go hand in hand and the videos entered into the record and testimony provided by Capitol police officers at the very least tarnish Trump.
2024 Republican Nominee Odds: The Favorites
With all that said, President Donald Trump’s odds to be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee were -105 the day before the first January 6 public hearing and they are +100 now, according to online sportsbook Bovada.
Keep in mind, Trump has yet to formally announce another presidential campaign run. There are whispers, though, that he could announce it as early as the summer or wait until after the November midterm elections are completed.
He is also favored in the U.S. presidential odds.
2024 Republican Nominee Odds
|Donald Trump Sr.||+100||+400|
|Donald Trump Jr.||+5000||+2500|
Odds as of June 13 at Bovada
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The January 6 Committee Hearings Impact Trump’s Odds
As the hearings play out and more evidence comes to the surface, we’ll explore how it’ll impact Trump’s odds in greater detail and analyze any significant odds movement.
For now, Republican Senator Liz Cheney’s opening statement and the following shared anecdote have many wondering if one of the goals is to find a way to keep Trump from running for president ever again:
“You will hear that President Trump was yelling and ‘really angry’ at advisers who told him he needed to be doing something more,” Cheney said, “and — aware of the rioters’ chants to hang Mike Pence — the president responded with this sentiment quote: ‘Maybe our supporters have the right idea.’ He, meaning the vice-president, ‘deserves it.’”
This coming from the same guy who said: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK? It’s like incredible,” Trump said back in 2016.
He won the presidency months later.
2024 Republican Nominee Betting Odds: Where’s The Value?
In short, there is no great Republican nominee odds value at this juncture so long as Donald Trump remains the likely candidate. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could apply some pressure on the former president for the nomination, but remember more than 74 million out of 200-plus million voted for Trump in 2020.
Scanning down the list of potential candidates, few if any have enough oomph to oust Trump as the favorite and, if they did roll the dice and run, they would only splinter Trump’s voter base slightly.
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Odds Shark Staff Fri, Jul 22, 1:33pm