Trump has always been the favorite to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election. And after a convincing win in the New Hampshire primary, The Donald's odds basically guarantee him the nomination.
2024 Republican Nominee Odds
Odds as of January 25
2024 Republican Nominee Odds: What Happened to DeSantis?
Through the primary season so far, Trump holds a commanding 32 delegates. Twenty of those delegates were won in Iowa where the former President wiped the floor with his opponents. His victory was so decisive, that his main challenger, Ron DeSantis, pulled out of the presidential race shortly afterward.
Now the field is down to just Trump and Nikki Haley.
Haley failed in her first test of broad party appeal she lost the New Hampshire primary. It was closer than expected with the former South Carolina Governor picking up 43% of the vote.
Trump's death grip over the Republican Party seems absolute and there is no reason to expect that will change. Books agree by giving Trump -3500 odds. That's an implied odd of 97%.
2024 Republican Nominee Odds: Why Is Haley Still In The Race?
If Trump is so heavily favored why in the nine-hells is Nikki Haley still in the race? Surely this is all but over, no?
There are a ton of delegates still up for grabs. Specifically, the 50 delegates that can be won in Haley's home state of South Carolina. Not to mention the 874 delegates that can be won on Super Tuesday. On Tuesday, March 5, 16 states will vote in their primaries.
We can't forget that she did pick up 43% of the vote in New Hampshire. How much does she pick up in South Carolina and the 16 states that will go to a vote afterward?
And look, we don't know what's going to happen with Trump and the number of convictions hanging over his head. If he is convicted, what does that mean for the voter base in the Republican Party? Do they shift over to the only warm body left in Nikki Haley?
If so she might just be the nominee by default. This is why Nikki Haley is sticking around.