Warren’s Odds to Win Democratic Nomination Slip

For the first time in well over a month, Senator Elizabeth Warren’s odds to win the Democratic nomination dipped.

The day after the last Democratic debate in Columbus, Warren’s odds improved from -110 to -120. However, in the six days since, those futures ticked back down to -115. While not earth-shattering, it probably indicates some money is backing field long shots.

Here are the updated odds to win the Democratic presidential nomination at  Bovada:

Odds as of October 22 at Bovada

Despite speaking for more than 16 minutes during the last debate – second only to Warren – Joe Biden’s odds didn’t budge.  According to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll, Biden’s debate performance was worse than expected. His futures have now been stuck at +400 for three consecutive weeks with no true sense that they’ll rise in coming weeks. 

The same Suffolk/USA Today poll may provide some clarity as to Pete Buttigieg’s odds jump from +1000 two weeks ago to +750 today. The South Bend mayor jumped seven percentage points since the last poll in June and ranks third behind Warren and Biden among Iowa Democratic caucus-goers. Buttigieg spoke with conviction when he questioned Warren’s lack of transparency during the last debate. Moments like this:

Like in previous debates, Elizabeth Warren refused to say if taxes would go up to give everyone Medicare for All.

This later gave Pete Buttigieg an opening: “A yes or no question that didn't get a yes or no answer.”

More key moments: https://t.co/FqoNuY8303 pic.twitter.com/ubVqcvnErn

— POLITICO (@politico) October 16, 2019

With Warren on the defensive during much of the debate, she is expected to release her Medicare-for-all plan with details on how to pay for it as early as this week, according to reports. It’ll be interesting to see which direction her Democratic nomination odds shift following the announcement.

The other big headline coming out of the last Democratic debate was the rift between candidate Tulsi Gabbard and former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. It boils down to Clinton’s concerns that Gabbard could run as an independent and splinter Democratic votes, handing President Donald Trump a second term. Gabbard, who raised some eyebrows with her performance at the Columbus debate, wasted no time shooting back at Clinton.

Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a ...

— Tulsi Gabbard (@TulsiGabbard) October 18, 2019

While Gabbard is polling at just one percent and Clinton hasn’t officially announced a third run for office, the latter’s odds have jumped from +1800 to +1300 over the past month. Some pundits think if Biden drops out of the race, Clinton and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg will enter.

The next Democratic debate is scheduled for November 20 in Georgia, likely in the metro Atlanta area.

Here’s a look back at the full list of odds from Bovada to win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidential election from June 26:

Odds as of June 26 at Bovada