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Democratic Nomination Odds: Biden Favorite, Hillary Clinton Slams Bernie Sanders

2020 Democratic Nomination Odds

This time last week, Bernie Sanders was – for the first time – a favorite to win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. However, after a less-than-stellar debate performance last Tuesday night and a private-turned-hot mic exchange with Elizabeth Warren, Sanders’ odds have dipped from +215 to +265. As Sanders fends off court of public opinion nightmares and Hillary Clinton’s harsh criticism (see below), former vice-president Joe Biden not only became the party’s favorite to win the nomination again, but at +160 has his best odds to win since we started tracking earlier this year.

Rounding out the top five favorites are the usual suspects of Warren, Michael Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg. However, Andrew Yang at 16-to-1 is a candidate to watch out for in the coming weeks. In case you missed it, if Yang won the Democratic nomination, BetOnline has him pegged as an overwhelming favorite to defeat Donald Trump in the general election. You can learn more about head-to-head odds on our 2020 presidential election odds page.

Please check out the updated odds to win the Democratic presidential nomination at  Bovada:

Odds to win the 2020 Democratic Nomination
CandidateDec. 19Dec. 26Jan. 2Jan. 14Jan. 21
Joe Biden+275+200+200+225+160
Bernie Sanders+425+400+350+215+265
Elizabeth Warren+400+400+450+650+700
Michael Bloomberg+700+800+1000+700+700
Pete Buttigieg+450+550+600+900+1000
Andrew Yang+1600+1600+1600+1600+1600
Hilliary Clinton+1200+1200+1600+2000+2000
Amy Klobuchar+3500+2500+3000+3300+5000
Michelle Obama+5000+5000+5000+5000+10000
Tulsi Gabbard+5000+8000+6600+10000+10000
Tom Steyer+12500+12500+12500+12500+12500
Deval Patrick+8000+8000+8000+15000+20000

Odds as of January 21 at Bovada

Democratic Primary Race: 3 Things to Know

1) Clinton Slams Sanders

Were Hillary Clinton’s recent comments about Bernie Sanders a public relations stunt to promote her upcoming Hulu documentary series or does she truly believe this:

“He was in Congress for years. He had one senator support him,” she said during an interview as part of an upcoming Hulu documentary series. “Nobody likes him, nobody wants to work with him, he got nothing done. He was a career politician. It’s all just baloney and I feel so bad that people got sucked into it.”

As I said when the Sanders-Warren private beef went public: this friction within the Democratic party is EXACTLY what Trump needs to cruise to a re-election victory.

2) Iowa Caucus

The negative press appears to have impacted Sanders as his odds to win the Iowa caucus dipped from -125 last week to EVEN odds today. At 2-to-1, don’t be surprised if Biden snipes an Iowa win away from Sanders. If you think about it, the infighting and debate attacks have honed in on Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg, and not the former vice-president. It’s one of the rare occurrences where no news is good news for a politician running for office. Biden’s survive-and-advance mentality may earn him the first win of the primary season.

3) New Hampshire Primary

Looking back at the 2016 New Hampshire primary, President Trump won by more than 50,000 votes, while Vermont Senator Sanders earned 60.4 percent of the vote to beat Clinton by more than 55,000 votes. At this point, it would take a miracle for another candidate to upset Sanders in his home region. His odds at -140, or 58.33 percent implied probability to win the New Hampshire primary, actually provide some value to those who believe Sanders can avoid a complete PR meltdown between now and the vote on February 11.

Odds to win the Democratic Iowa Caucus (2/3/20)
CandidateDec. 26Jan. 14Jan. 21
Bernie Sanders+175-125EVEN
Joe Biden+300+250+200
Pete Buttigieg+110+250+450
Elizabeth Warren+700+1200+700
Andrew YangN/AN/A+2500
Amy KlobucharN/A+1600+3300
Tom SteyerN/AN/A+5000
Tulsi GabbardN/AN/A+10000

Odds as of Jan. 21 at BetOnline

Odds to win the Democratic new Hampshire Primary
CandidateJan. 21
Bernie Sanders-140
Joe Biden+275
Pete Buttigieg+700
Elizabeth Warren+900
Andrew Yang+2000
Amy Klobuchar+3000

Odds as of Jan. 21 at  Bovada

Here’s a look back at the full list of odds from Bovada to win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidential election from June 26:

Opening Odds to win the 2020 Democratic Nomination
CandidateOdds
Joe Biden+200
Bernie Sanders +450
Pete Buttigieg+450
Kamala Harris+550
Elizabeth Warren+700
Andrew Yang +1200
Beto O’Rourke+1800
Tulsi Gabbard+3000
Cory Booker+3300
Amy Klobuchar+4000
Hillary Clinton+4000
Julian Castro+8000
Kirsten Gillibrand+8000
Michelle Obama+8000
Oprah Winfrey+8000
Tom Steyer+10000
Andrew Cuomo+10000

Odds as of June 26 at Bovada