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Democratic Nomination Odds: Harris Set To Be Named Biden’s VP?

In mid-May, it appeared that Joe Biden’s luster was dimming as former first lady Hillary Clinton’s odds were shortening. Clinton had a docu-series released on Hulu and soon after joined Biden in a town hall where she endorsed him but also boasted of her own resume, which many thought might be her first step toward running again in 2020.

After those events, we saw Clinton’s odds to win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination drop drastically from +1800 to +700 within a span of a week and a half, while Biden’s odds lengthened from -1200 to -600.

However, Clinton’s push has ended and Biden’s odds have been taken off the board as he is the presumptive nominee, which should become official at the convention August 17-20. He is also now the -160 favorite over Donald Trump (+135) in the odds to win the 2020 presidential election. Clinton is a distant third on the presidential oddsboard at +5000. Much of this change at the top is due to the president’s response to the George Floyd murder and the ongoing protests and riots.

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Check out the updated odds to win the Democratic presidential nomination at Bovada:

Odds To Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination
CandidateCurrentJuly 20July 2June 28June 2May 29May 25May 21May 11Apr 27Apr 23Apr 14Apr 9Apr 8Apr 3Apr 2Mar 31Mar 27Mar 18Mar 15Mar 11Mar 9Mar 5Mar 3Mar 2Mar 1Feb 25Feb 23Feb 21Feb 12Feb 5Jan 29Jan 21Jan 13Jan 2Opening
Joe BidenN/A-2500-2000-1600-1000-800-800-700-600-1200-1200-1000-1600-700-600-450-450-600-1600-1000-4000-800-500-115+190+240+1000+1000+800+1000+450+185+160+225+200+200
Hillary ClintonN/A+1600+1600+1400+800+750+750+750+700+1800+2000+1600+2500+1600+2000+2000+2000+1500+1000+1400+2000+2000+1800+3000+2000+3000+2800+2500+2000+2000+2000+2000+2000+2000+1600+4000
Andrew CuomoN/A+2800+2500+2500+2800+2000+1800+1800+1800+1400+1400+1000+2200+1200+1000+700+750+1000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000
Michelle ObamaN/A+2500+2200+2000+2800+3300+3300+3300+3300+4000+4000+4000+4000+4000+4500+5000+5000+4000+5000+4000+5000+5000+8000+10000N/AN/A+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000+8000+10000N/A+8000
Bernie SandersN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1600+1200+1000+1000+1500+2500+1500+2000+650+450+150-110-115-130-120EVEN+110+150+160+160+215+350+450
Tulsi GabbardN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000+20000+20000+20000+50000+50000+50000+50000+25000+15000+20000+20000+15000+10000+10000N/A+3000
Michael BloombergN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1200+600+600+400+325+400+250+350+500+700+650+450N/A
Pete ButtigiegN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3500+1100+900+600+500+450+1400+900+1000+600+450
Elizabeth WarrenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+5000+8000+5000+2000+2500+1200+1500+700+650+450+700
Amy KlobucharN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+15000+10000+4000+1500+6600+4000+5000+3300+3000+4000
Tom SteyerN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+25000+10000+15000+15000+10000+12500+12500+12500+10000
Deval PatrickN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+10000+15000+25000+20000+20000+15000+8000N/A

Odds as of August 10 at Bovada

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Harris Favored To Be VP

It was likely the biggest moment of the head-to-head debate between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden on Sunday, March 15, when both stated that they would have a female vice-president. More recently, Biden announced he will be naming his running mate in the near future, though the cat may have been let out of the bag in the former VP’s speech notes on July 28.

As seen above, the name of California Senator Kamala Harris, who dropped out of the Democratic presidential nomination race in early December, is atop this handwritten note with some attributes scribbled below. Harris is now the massive favorite to be selected as the VP running mate.

She had been fourth on the opening oddsboard for the Democratic presidential nomination with odds of +550 and cited finances as the main reason for suspending that campaign.

Online sportsbook BetOnline has Harris at -110, followed by Susan Rice at +150, Val Demings at +800, Karen Bass +1200 and Tammy Duckworth at +1200 to round out the top five names on the oddsboard.

Harris as the VP nominee makes sense as she’s not extremely far left, she’s black, she’s 55, which is younger than many other names on the list, and she’s a college-educated woman who checks a lot of demographic boxes.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds to be the Democratic vice-presidential nominee:

Odds to Be Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee
CandidateOdds
Kamala Harris-110
Susan Rice+150
Val Demings+800
Karen Bass+1200
Tammy Duckworth+1200
Elizabeth Warren+2000
Gretchen Whitmer+2500
Michelle Obama+2500
Hillary Clinton+5000
Keisha Lance Bottoms+6600
Stacey Abrams+8000
Michelle Lujan Grisham+12500
Tammy Baldwin+15000

Odds as of August 10 at BetOnline

Sanders Suspends Campaign

After winning just seven of the 26 states that held their primaries in March, Bernie Sanders decided to suspend his campaign and the odds suggested that was the right move. The Vermont senator entered March as the betting favorite to be the Democratic nominee at -115, just shy of his lowest odds of -130 on February 25. His opening odds of +450 put him second on the oddsboard behind Joe Biden.

Following the results of Super Tuesday and the mini-Super Tuesdays throughout March, Sanders’ odds skyrocketed as high as +2500 on March 18, behind even Hillary Clinton (+1000), who was not even in the race.

On April 8, Bernie’s odds had stabilized at +1600, tied with Clinton for third on the list behind Biden and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Before the vote in the Wisconsin primary came out, Sanders dropped out of the race and he did end up losing that state so it was unlikely he would make up enough ground to catch Biden. Most recently, Sanders has endorsed Biden to be the next POTUS.

Biden Campaign Trail Missteps

At the very top of Biden’s campaign to-do list over the next few months is to avoid viral moments like this:

Whereas President Trump utters cringe-worthy and controversial phrases on what seems like a daily basis, Biden’s in-your-face personal engagements observed here and in the past, like when he challenged an Iowa voter to a push-up contest, are perceived as more intense than Trump’s broad-brush, both-sides-of-his-mouth commentary that is often categorized as misunderstood.

In other words, if Biden wants to match Trump in the tough-guy, tough-talk approach during debates and on the campaign trail, he needs to recalibrate the optics.