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2024 Democratic Nominee Odds: Biden, Harris Have Inside Lane

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris raising hands in triumph from their 2020 presidential win

In 2020, it appeared that the Democratic Party might head in a progressive direction as Bernie Sanders was the betting favorite to win the Democratic nomination until March 3, also known as Super Tuesday. On that date, former vice-president Joe Biden won 10 of the 14 states holding their primaries, which launched him into the top spot on the oddsboard to win the nomination and eventually into the Oval Office.

As the incumbent president ahead of the 2024 election year, it should come as no surprise when looking at the Democratic nominee odds that Biden tops the list, followed closely by Vice-President Kamala Harris. The two are also the favorites in 2024 presidential election odds, though it is Harris slightly ahead of Biden in that race.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the 2024 Democratic nominee odds with Biden sitting as the +250 favorite. He is followed by Harris at +300, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at +1000, Elizabeth Warren at +1200, Stacey Abrams at +1200, Andrew Cuomo at +1600, Andrew Yang at +1600, Bernie Sanders at +1600 and Pete Buttigieg at +1600 to round out the top 10 on the oddsboard.

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2024 Democratic Nominee Odds

CandidateCurrentOpening
Joe Biden+250+250
Kamala Harris+300+300
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1000+1000
Elizabeth Warren+1200+1200
Michelle Obama+1200+1200
Stacey Abrams+1200+1200
Andrew Cuomo+1600+1600
Andrew Yang+1600+1600
Bernie Sanders+1600+1600
Pete Buttigieg+1600+1600
Beto O’Rourke+2000+2000
Michael Bennet+2000+2000
Michael Bloomberg+2000+2000
Amy Klobuchar+2500+2500
Cory Booker+2500+2500
Gretchen Whitmer+2500+2500
Deval Patrick+3500+3500
Sherrod Brown+3500+3500
Tulsi Gabbard+3500+3500
Val Demings+4000+4000
Hillary Clinton+5000+5000
Kirsten Gillibrand+10000+10000
Tammy Baldwin+10000+10000
Tammy Duckworth+10000+10000

Odds as of January 4 at Bovada

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Biden Or Harris: Which Candidate Has Better Value?

Given the question of whether the president or vice-president has the betting value to be the nominee for the 2024 election, logically the edge would go to Biden. However, when you look at the 2024 Democratic nominee betting odds, Biden tops the board, but for the 2024 presidential odds, it is Harris that leads the charge, which creates some confusion.

I assume the reason Harris is so close to Biden in the odds for Democratic nominee and surpasses him in the 2024 presidential odds comes down to health. At the time of this writing in early 2021, Biden is 78 years old with four stressful years of being president on the horizon, which may take a toll on his health. That said, I have to imagine that he will be well taken care of by the finest doctors. much like President Donald Trump was when he contracted the coronavirus in October.

Ultimately, I believe Biden will be in fine health (knock on wood) in four years’ time and will be the Democratic nominee as the incumbent. Now, if you fear that Biden won’t make it through four years, then logically Harris is providing the better value and I would recommend betting that earlier than later because if your prediction comes true, the VP’s odds will shift dramatically and quickly.

Is There More Value Elsewhere On the 2024 Democratic Nominee Oddsboard?

It’s hard to find value outside of the incumbent duo of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. However, there are a couple of options that have my attention, though one may run as an independent. The two people I could see on a 2024 presidential ballot are Pete Buttigieg (+1600) and Andrew Yang (+1600).

Buttigieg, affectionately known as Mayor Pete, got some love from the public with hopes that he would be the Democratic nominee in 2020, though it never came to fruition. That said, the former South Bend mayor is set to be the transportation secretary as part of the Biden administration, which clearly would help build his resume for a future presidential campaign. I doubt he will be the 2024 Democratic nominee but perhaps 2028?

As for Yang and his “Yang Gang,” I could see him running for president in 2024. Currently, the entrepreneur is running to be the mayor of New York City and early polls put him in the lead for that mayoral race – I know, I referred to polls, and we know how accurate they are.

One of the big platforms Yang stands on is for a universal basic income, through which every eligible American would receive a $1,000 check every month – something many Americans could have used during the pandemic. Personally, I don’t think Yang will be the Democratic nominee but he could be on the ballot as an independent.