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Warren’s Odds to Win Democratic Nomination Slip

For the first time in well over a month, Senator Elizabeth Warren’s odds to win the Democratic nomination dipped.

The day after the last Democratic debate in Columbus, Warren’s odds improved from -110 to -120. However, in the six days since, those futures ticked back down to -115. While not earth-shattering, it probably indicates some money is backing field long shots.

Here are the updated odds to win the Democratic presidential nomination at  Bovada:

Odds to win the 2020 Democratic Nomination
CandidateSept. 24Oct. 1Oct. 8Oct. 16Oct. 22
Elizabeth Warren+150+110-110-120-115
Joe Biden+275+350+400+400+400
Bernie Sanders+650+800+1200+800+750
Pete Buttigieg+1100+1100+1000+800+750
Hilliary Clinton+1800+1600N/A+1400+1300
Andrew Yang+1000+1000+1000+1500+1500
Kamala Harris+1100+1400+1600+2000+2000
Tulsi Gabbard+5000+3300+4000+5000+5000
Beto O’Rourke+5000+5000+5000+6600+6600
Michelle Obama+6000+6000+6000+6600+6600
Cory Booker+6000+6000+6000+7000+7000
Oprah Winfrey+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000
Amy Klobuchar+7500+7500+7500+10000+10000
Tom Steyer+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000
Julian Castro+10000+10000+10000+12500+12500

Odds as of October 22 at Bovada

Despite speaking for more than 16 minutes during the last debate – second only to Warren – Joe Biden’s odds didn’t budge.  According to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll, Biden’s debate performance was worse than expected. His futures have now been stuck at +400 for three consecutive weeks with no true sense that they’ll rise in coming weeks. 

The same Suffolk/USA Today poll may provide some clarity as to Pete Buttigieg’s odds jump from +1000 two weeks ago to +750 today. The South Bend mayor jumped seven percentage points since the last poll in June and ranks third behind Warren and Biden among Iowa Democratic caucus-goers. Buttigieg spoke with conviction when he questioned Warren’s lack of transparency during the last debate. Moments like this:

With Warren on the defensive during much of the debate, she is expected to release her Medicare-for-all plan with details on how to pay for it as early as this week, according to reports. It’ll be interesting to see which direction her Democratic nomination odds shift following the announcement.

The other big headline coming out of the last Democratic debate was the rift between candidate Tulsi Gabbard and former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. It boils down to Clinton’s concerns that Gabbard could run as an independent and splinter Democratic votes, handing President Donald Trump a second term. Gabbard, who raised some eyebrows with her performance at the Columbus debate, wasted no time shooting back at Clinton.

While Gabbard is polling at just one percent and Clinton hasn’t officially announced a third run for office, the latter’s odds have jumped from +1800 to +1300 over the past month. Some pundits think if Biden drops out of the race, Clinton and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg will enter.

The next Democratic debate is scheduled for November 20 in Georgia, likely in the metro Atlanta area.

Here’s a look back at the full list of odds from Bovada to win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidential election from June 26:

Opening Odds to win the 2020 Democratic Nomination
Joe Biden+200
Bernie Sanders +450
Pete Buttigieg+450
Kamala Harris+550
Elizabeth Warren+700
Andrew Yang +1200
Beto O’Rourke+1800
Tulsi Gabbard+3000
Cory Booker+3300
Amy Klobuchar+4000
Hillary Clinton+4000
Julian Castro+8000
Kirsten Gillibrand+8000
Michelle Obama+8000
Oprah Winfrey+8000
Tom Steyer+10000
Andrew Cuomo+10000

Odds as of June 26 at Bovada