As it stands now in the field for the Democratic Nomination we have three candidates. Current President Joe Biden, environmental lawyer Robert Kennedy Jr. and self-help guru Marianne Williamson.
Biden is the runaway favorite at -500. An 83% implied odd of winning. Kennedy Jr. has the second-best odds at +800, which is an 11% implied odds of taking the Democratic nomination. You can't get odds on Williamson.
2024 Democratic Nominee Odds
| Candidate | Current |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -500 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +800 |
| Kamala Harris | +1400 |
| Michelle Obama | +1400 |
| Gavin Newsom | +1800 |
| Hillary Clinton | +3500 |
Odds as of May 29
Why is Joe Biden the favorite to win the 2024 Democratic nomination?
Look, I know a sitting President has lost their party nomination five times in history. But the last time that happened was in 1884. There's no reason to think it will happen a sixth time.
A sitting President isn't about to see his party turn on him. In this political landscape party cohesiveness is king. Without it, no Presidential nominee stands a chance. And the Dems don't want to give up the White House by giving the nod to someone other than Biden.
Yes, Biden's 39% approval rating is just above his lowest to date (37%). And his term average of 44% is nearly ten points below the average US President of 53%. The picture I'm trying to paint here is that Biden isn't exactly popular. But even with that, Biden is a lock to win the Democratic Nomination. Because he currently sits in the Oval Office.
Biden has already won the nomination in the past he knows what the party is looking for from their nominee.
2024 Democratic Nominee Odds: Does Robert Kennery Jr. Have A Chance?
Kennedy is mainly known as a vaccine denier. And that's a massive problem for any Democratic Nomination challenger. When it comes to vaccination rates, 66% of people in democratic counties are fully vaccinated. Denying vaccines work when two-thirds of the people in the party disagree is a strategy that is full of pitfalls-and-peril.
His fight against what he has termed "corporate plutocracy" will win him points from those on the left that believe America's capitalist system rewards the rich over the masses. But I doubt that's going to be enough.
Heck, Kennedy is already having a tough enough time convincing his own family that he should win the Democratic Nomination.
At +800 Kennedy Jr. is a long shot to unseat Biden as the leader of the Democratic Party.
2024 Democratic Nominee Odds: Williamson who?
Yes, there is a third nominee running for the Democratic Party and it's author Marianne Williamson. And no, you can't get odds on her actually winning. Which is pretty devastating for her campaign. Oddsmakers believe people who haven't declared they're running - and probably won't run - have a better shot.
You can find odds on Meghan Markle to win the Democratic Nomination at +10000. And she isn't running and has made no indication she will. And why would she?
With no political experience and being irrelevant to the political discourse today why on earth would she challenge Biden? Yet, oddsmakers think there's a market for her and not someone who's actually running like Marianne Williamson. Ouch.
