The 2024 US Presidential Election Odds have shifted away from Trump for the first time in a long time following the shocking news that Joe Biden won't seek a second term. Donald Trump's odds fell from -250 to -215. Meanwhile, presumptive Democratic Nominee Kamala Harris opened at +190.
2024 US Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -215 |
| Kamala Harris | +190 |
| Michelle Obama | +2000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +4000 |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 |
Odds as of July 22
2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump
Trump's odds fell after news broke that Joe Biden would step down from the 2024 US Presidential race. The former President's implied odds of winning the 2024 Presidential Election moved from 71% after the July debate to 68% today. Though at -215 he's still the overwhelming favorite.
| Opening Odds | Pre-Debate Odds | Post-Debate Odds | Odds After Joe Stepped Down |
|---|---|---|---|
| -120 | -155 | -250 | -215 |
While the Democrats now have to go back to the drawing board to find their candidate, Trump has galvanized his hold over the Republican Party.
I understand that's just optics and that has nothing to do with the substance of governing. But optics matter a lot when it comes to the Presidential Election. A Cal-Irvine study from 1986 has shown that image optics have a "significant" impact on a person's vote. The Republicans, and thus Trump, have the advantage here.
The Dems were staunchly backing their candidate leading up to the debate. Now that he's out they've got bridges to build if they're going to win the election.
2024 US Presidential Election Odds: Kamala Harris
By all accounts, Kamala Harris will be the Democratic Party's nominee for the 2024 election. We won't know for sure until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago from August 19th to 22nd, but getting the nod from the current leader of the Democratic Party and the current President is a good bump to get.
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
A good sign for the Dems is that Harris's odds are much shorter than Biden's were just a few days ago. Before Biden stepped down his odds of winning the 2024 Presidential Election were +500. That's an implied win probabilty of 17% whereas Harris is currently sitting at +190 -- implied odds of 35%.
Harris has a month to unite the Democratic Party before the DNC and then has just over two months to convince the American people of her Presidential credentials before the November 5th election date.
2024 US President Election Important Dates
While every day in a Presidential Election is technically the most important, some days are even more important than others. Here are some key dates you should remember for this election cycle:
- Democratic National Convention: August 19-22, 2024
- Second President Debate: September 10, 2024
- Vice-President Debate: (Debate agreed but date to be determined)
- Election Date: November 5, 2024
US President Odds: Favorite Usually Wins
Usually the favorite wins. Of 59 Presidential elections only four have been won by an underdog. Trump is one of only four candidates to win the White House as the underdog since 1916.
| Election | Underdog | Favorite |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Donald Trump (+375) | Hillary Clinton (-550) |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter (+100) | Gerald Ford (-120) |
| 1948 | Harry Truman (+1500) | Thomas Dewey (-1800) |
| 1916 | Woodrow Wilson (+110) | Charles Evans Hughes (-110) |
How To Read 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds
Welcome to betting on U.S. politics. Let’s say you want to bet on the 2024 US Presidential election. The betting odds should be listed similarly to this:
- Donald Trump -150
- Kamala Harris +150
The odds listed above are called American odds. The minus sign (-) indicates the favorite. Betting $100 on Trump at -150 would net you $167 -- your initial $100 and $67 of profit. The plus sign (+) indicates the underdog. Betting $100 on Harris at +150 would net you $250 -- your initial $100 and $150 in profit.
Check out our Odds Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
What Are Presidential Futures?
Futures bets are made on events that have yet to take place like the 2024 US Presidential election.
To bet on this market you'll want to keep up with the daily news cycle of U.S. politics, and polling data and follow along with all of the handicapping we've done on this page.
Once you’ve decided who has the chops to win the 2024 election, you are ready to bet on US political futures.
