2024 Presidential Election Odds: Biden Vs Trump 2.0

There is little doubt that the 2024 US Presidential Election will be a replay of the 2020 election that saw Joe Biden win by 74 electoral votes and over seven million votes.

But do the odds say that Joe is expected to hold office in this second show-down with Trump?

2024 US Presidential Election Odds

Odds as of Jan. 29

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds: Joe Biden's Popularity

I like looking at a President's approval rating to sort out his electability odds in 2024. Biden has been floating around 40% since December according to Reuters. His disapproval rate is ~54%. That's, as the kids say, not good at all.

Republicans hope that those disapproval ratings show up when the polls open in 2024. But look, Biden won the Democratic New Hampshire primary with 63.9% of the vote. His name wasn't even on the ballot. That's how popular he is, within his own party.

There are signs of Trump fatigue within the Republican party. When the choice eventually comes down to Biden or Trump how many of those fed-up Republican voters move to the left, or simply don't vote?

Biden's team will be pleased with how the economy is performing. Inflation is down three full points (it's not at 3.4%) from where it was at the start of 2023. These are tangible economic metrics that Biden can point to as a success under his administration.

Unemployment is also down to 3.7% now. That's been held since about February 2022. Again, another tangible metric that Biden can take to the electorate to show his Presidential credentials.

2024 President Elections: Republican Favorite

While the Republican Party seems rife with dysfunction it hasn't impacted who might lead them into the 2024 election. Trump is the overwhelming favorite to nab his party's nomination at -3500. 

The recent New Hampshire Primary saw Trump win with 54.3% of the vote. But challenger Nikki Halley wasn't far off with 43.2% of the vote. She picked up nine delegates on the day but is still 15 back from Trump.

With primary season heading to South Carolina (Haley's home state and where she was Governor from 2011 to 2017) maybe Haley can start closing that gap with Trump? Perhaps she can sway Republican minds that she's the better option than Trump?

The odds suggest that's not happening.

US President Odds: Favorite Usually Wins

Usually the favorite wins. Of 59 Presidential elections only four have been won by an underdog. Trump is one of only four candidates to win the White House as the underdog since 1916. 

How To Read 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

Welcome to betting on U.S. politics. Let’s say that you want to bet on the result of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The betting odds should be listed similarly to this:

The odds listed above are called American odds. The plus sign (+) indicates how much you would win if you were to bet $100 on that option. The candidate with the lowest number, in this case, Joe Biden, is considered the betting favorite for this market. 

Now, if you believe that Ron DeSantis will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, you bet $100 on that option and he is elected in 2024, you'd get $2600 – your initial bet of $100 is returned and you are rewarded with $2500 in profit.

Check out our Odds Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.

What Are Presidential Futures?

Futures bets are made on events that have yet to take place. You make a bet like this far off in advance of the event, in this case, the person to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

To make a bet like this, you would first use the info contained in this article to handicap your wager along with keeping up with the daily news cycle of U.S. politics.

Once you’ve made your decision on which person you think has the chops to win the 2024 election, you’re ready to start betting on U.S. political futures.