2024 US President Election Odds comes to to Biden vs Trump, again

2024 Presidential Election Odds: The Criminal Vs The Geriatric

The 2024 US President Odds have shifted after the news that former President Donald Trump was convicted on all 34 counts in his porn-star hush-money case. The 2024 race is going to be the criminal vs the geriatric. 

You'd think that with Trump's conviction, his odds of winning the White House in November would be longer. But no. The closer we get the shorter Trump's odds get. He now sits at -150, an implied odd of 60%.

2024 US Presidential Election Odds

Odds To Win 2024 US Presidential Election
Donald Trump-150
Joe Biden+160

Odds as of June 11

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds: Trump Shines After Conviction

Any publicity is good publicity, right? That seems to be the case. After Trump was convicted Thursday, May 30 his odds moved from -110 to -140. Now they're -150! How?! I know it's not a massive swing, but you'd think that the odds of winning the US Presidential election would grow longer for a freshly convicted criminal. Not for Trump.

Why? The only justifiable reason is that this conviction could galvanize a Republican base slowly shifting away from him. We've seen Trump's popularity fall within his party lately. In the 2020 primaries, we saw Trump win 94% of the vote. But this year, with many of the contests decided, Trump only has 76% of the votes. That's a huge drop-off.

Look, we know Trump owns the Republican Party. But to win a Presidential election he has to appeal to more than just the GOP. He's got to pull in centrists and even some on the center-left. And he just got booed off stage by Libertarians. His popularity was sinking. 

We have to remember that Trump has never won the popular vote. He went from a -2.8 million gap in the popular vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and then -7 million to Biden in 2020.

Now his base has a rallying cry to fall back on. And a way for Trump to fill his war chest with money. His campaign has said they've raised millions since his 34 guilty verdicts were read. 

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds: Joe Biden

Meanwhile, President Biden is busy governing. He's keeping inflation under control and unemployment low. And has done so for a long time now. Both key economic factors have been trending positively since he stepped into the Oval Office. But that's not enough to push him ahead of Trump on the board because frankly, that doesn't grab headlines like a trial for a hush-money scheme to win the Presidency does.

And there's still frankly some concern over his age. That concern has quieted down since its fever pitch a few months ago, but it's not because Joe suddenly pulled a Benjamin Button and reversed the aging process. The news cycle has moved on to other topics. That's life in a 24-hour news world.

He's still 81 and will be 82 by the end of November. The oldest President at the end of his tenure was Ronald Reagan at 77. Biden's got him beat by five years even if he doesn't win a second term. And look according to the National Institutes of Health, two-thirds of Americans will see cognitive impairment by the time they hit 70. Carly Rae Jepsen's "Call Me Maybe" was still wildly popular then!

US President Odds: Favorite Usually Wins

Usually the favorite wins. Of 59 Presidential elections only four have been won by an underdog. Trump is one of only four candidates to win the White House as the underdog since 1916. 

Underdogs That Won US President Election
2016Donald Trump (+375)Hillary Clinton (-550)
1976Jimmy Carter (+100)Gerald Ford (-120)
1948Harry Truman (+1500)Thomas Dewey (-1800)
1916Woodrow Wilson (+110)Charles Evans Hughes (-110)

How To Read 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

Welcome to betting on U.S. politics. Let’s say that you want to bet on the result of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The betting odds should be listed similarly to this:

  • Joe Biden +650
  • Donald Trump +800
  • Ron DeSantis +2500

The odds listed above are called American odds. The plus sign (+) indicates how much you would win if you were to bet $100 on that option. The candidate with the lowest number, in this case, Joe Biden, is considered the betting favorite for this market. 

Now, if you believe that Ron DeSantis will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, you bet $100 on that option and he is elected in 2024, you'd get $2600 – your initial bet of $100 is returned and you are rewarded with $2500 in profit.

Check out our Odds Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.

What Are Presidential Futures?

Futures bets are made on events that have yet to take place. You make a bet like this far off in advance of the event, in this case, the person to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

To make a bet like this, you would first use the info contained in this article to handicap your wager along with keeping up with the daily news cycle of U.S. politics.

Once you’ve made your decision on which person you think has the chops to win the 2024 election, you’re ready to start betting on U.S. political futures.

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