As it turns out, President Joe Biden’s decision to use the term “Armageddon” during a Democratic fundraiser speech may have helped the 1998 blockbuster movie earn a few more streams, cut the cast a few more royalty checks and boosted Liv Tyler “where are they now” Google searches, but a casual reference to the last battle between good and evil failed to significantly lift his approval rating or U.S. presidential odds. Imagine that.

Bet On U.S. Presidential Odds Here

While no new intelligence indicates Russia is about to wage nuclear war on Ukraine, the ongoing conflict isn’t exactly helping Biden in the polls as former president Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis now share the same odds to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds: Who Is Favored?

After nipping at his proverbial heels all summer, DeSantis finally caught Trump in the odds to win the 2024 election. Both now boast 3-to-1 odds to become the 47th president of the United States. Current President Biden’s odds sit at +550, which carry an implied probability of less than 16 percent that he wins a second term.

From there, potential presidential candidates’ odds fall off a cliff with only two having better than 24-to-1 odds and only three with better than 26-to-1. It appears bookmakers believe Vice-President Kamala Harris (14-to-1), California Governor Gavin Newsom (16-to-1) and former vice-president Mike Pence (25-to-1) are just qualified enough to warrant some consideration for the 2024 presidency.

You can see more betting markets in politics and sports at Bovada:

Using our online sports betting calculator, Trump’s odds of +300 to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election represent an implied win probability of 25.00 percent. Furthermore, if you were to wager $100 on a winning Trump bet, you would profit $300.

Odds To Win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
CandidateOdds
Donald Trump+300
Ron DeSantis+300
Joe Biden+600
Kamala Harris+1400
Gavin Newsom+1600
Mike Pence+2500
Michelle Obama+3000
Pete Buttigieg+3000
Nikki Haley+3500
Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson+6600
Elizabeth Warren+6600
Hillary Clinton+6600
Mike Pompeo+6600
Tom Cotton+6600
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+8000
Amy Klobuchar+8000
Kristi Noem+8000

Odds as of October 13 at Bovada

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds Movement

It’s pretty evident that most sportsbooks offering 2024 U.S. presidential odds are not seeing a lot of action outside the top three favorites of Trump, DeSantis and Biden. Since our last update on August 31, 2022, the odds of Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Mike Pence, Michelle Obama, Nikki Haley and Pete Buttigieg to win in 2024 have all dipped, providing more value to those interested in backing a dark-horse candidate.

Trump’s odds have dipped from +240 to +300 in four months, while DeSantis’ have surged from +450 to +300. President Biden’s have dipped from +450 to +550.

For a look at the specific parties, we have the Democratic nominee odds and the Republican nominee odds for you to see.

2024 U.S. Presidential Odds: Three Things To Watch

Best Politics Betting Sites

Russia

Following President Vladimir Putin’s annexation proclamation of four Ukrainian regions, a logistically key bridge connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland was blown up.

These two events have caused an escalation in tensions and attacks on Ukraine not witnessed since the start of the war in February. What happens next is anybody’s guess, but the two countries – and the world – are further from a peaceful conclusion to this ugly chapter in history.

President Biden – along with European allies – continue to provide billions of dollars in military support to Ukraine, but with the United States on the verge of a deep recession, how much longer will Democratic and Independent constituents side with the guy grinding out a path toward a second term in office?

Putin knows the longer he can extend his “special military operation,” the more pressure is placed on Biden and odds that a more Russia-friendly figurehead takes his place in 2024. 

OPEC+

If you ever doubted how global politics intersects with the global economy, look no further than OPEC+. The oil-producing cartel carries a big stick when it comes to black gold production and price stability. So, when it announced in early October that it would be cutting roughly two million barrels per day, the trickle-down impact is twofold as it pertains to President Biden’s outlook:

First, oil will cost more and, vis-à-vis, gas at the pump will cost more heading into the midterm elections and winter months.

Second, higher oil prices benefit Russia as they are the + in OPEC+. Higher oil prices mean more money for Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine.

The sub-plot to all of this is that President Biden made a specific trip to Saudi Arabia to stress how a cut in production would mean disaster on a couple of geopolitical fronts, including Ukraine’s national security. The message fell on deaf ears.

Midterms

The New York Times dropped an article in early October reiterating how difficult the 2022 midterm elections have been to predict.

Strangest Midterm Excerpt from New York Times

With swings in public sentiment toward Biden’s inadequacies to the Supreme Court’s decision to dismiss Roe v. Wade, the gut feeling is that the House of Representatives will go to the Republicans, and Democrats will earn power in the Senate. What that leaves us with is a lame-duck president for the next two years, which does little to no favor toward his re-election campaign.


How To Read 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

Welcome to betting on U.S. politics. Let’s say that you want to bet on the result of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The first thing you need to do is sign up at an online sportsbook of your choice that offers 2024 U.S. presidential odds.

After the sign-up process and depositing some money to bet with, you have determined you want to bet on a potential candidate. The betting odds should be listed similar to this:

  • Kamala Harris +240
  • Joe Biden +650
  • Donald Trump Sr. +800
  • Mark Cuban +2500

The odds listed above are called American odds. The plus sign (+) indicates how much you would win if you were to bet $100 on that option. The candidate with the lowest number, in this case Kamala Harris, is considered the betting favorite for this market. 

Now, if you believe that Joe Biden will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, you bet $100 on that option and he’s re-elected in 2024, the sportsbook would give you back $750 – your initial bet of $100 is returned and you are rewarded with $650 in profit.

Check out our Odds Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.

What Are Presidential Futures?

Futures bets are made on events that have yet to take place. You make a bet like this far off in advance of the event, in this case the person to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

To make a bet like this, you would first use the info contained in this article to handicap your wager along with keeping up with the daily news cycle of U.S. politics.

Once you’ve made your decision on which person you think has the chops to win the 2024 election, you’re ready to start betting on U.S. political futures.

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