The red wave that many Republicans asserted was guaranteed in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections never happened. In fact, Democrats did much better than expected. You’d think the surprisingly positive result for Democrats in the midterms would significantly boost Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. But it hasn’t.
Biden is now second on the oddsboard after leapfrogging Donald Trump, but he wasn’t able to usurp Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at the top of the oddsboard. DeSantis, who hasn’t yet declared that he’s running to be president in 2024, is the current favorite at +190. Biden is at +300.
|Donald Trump Sr.||+750|
2024 U.S. Presidential Odds Movement
Outside of the top three – DeSantis, Biden, Trump – the oddsboard has remained largely static since our last update in mid-October. Nikki Haley is the one exception. The former governor of South Carolina has moved up from ninth to seventh on the board.
But will she run? She’s still seen as a popular figure in the Republican party. In South Carolina, she’s just as popular as the former president. A recent poll asked South Carolina Republican voters who they’d support if both Trump and Haley ran for the Republican nomination and the result was effectively a tie. However, Haley has previously stated she won’t run if Trump does. So will she flip that decision?
The midterms have sunk Trump’s odds from +300 to +750, while presumptive Republican rival DeSantis has seen his odds jump even more from +300 in October to +190 now.
2024 U.S. Presidential Odds: Three Things To Watch
January 6th Committee
On December 19, the January 6th committee announced they were going to refer former President Donald Trump to the Department of Justice for criminal investigation. The committee suggested there is evidence to prove Trump:
If that fourth charge holds, the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution could prevent Trump from becoming president.
How the DOJ rules on this referral from the committee will have a massive impact on not just the outcome of the Republican nomination race, but who could win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Trump vs Biden 2.0
Biden’s popularity fell below 50 percent at the end of August 2021 and hasn’t rebounded. At the time of writing, popularity polls show that his disapproval rating is at 51 percent while his approval rating is at 43 percent. He’s vulnerable.
That’s even after Biden expanded debt relief programs for students, signed an executive order to lower drug costs, and banned surprise healthcare billing. All are popular policies with his base and should have boosted his approval rating. But they didn’t go far enough to bring it up.
Of course, this is assuming the DOJ doesn’t charge Trump with any of the criminal offenses related to the events of January 6th.
Fallout From Workers
There could be some significant fallout from within Biden’s own party because of his decision to impose a deal on American rail workers. After calling out lopsided labor laws for rail workers 30 years ago, Biden flipped on these same workers in 2022 by using those same laws to force a deal on rail workers. How can Biden campaign as a pro-labor candidate now after taking away the only tool labor has to get a fair deal?
According to the Pew Research Center, 74 percent of Democrats and those who lean Democrat believe unions have a positive effect on the way things are going in the U.S. That’s a large number of votes, in his own base, that Biden might have just alienated by his decision to force a deal. Ouch. That could be massively important come election time.
How To Read 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds
Welcome to betting on U.S. politics. Let’s say that you want to bet on the result of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The first thing you need to do is sign up at an online sportsbook of your choice that offers 2024 U.S. presidential odds.
After the sign-up process and depositing some money to bet with, you have determined you want to bet on a potential candidate. The betting odds should be listed similar to this:
The odds listed above are called American odds. The plus sign (+) indicates how much you would win if you were to bet $100 on that option. The candidate with the lowest number, in this case Kamala Harris, is considered the betting favorite for this market.
Now, if you believe that Joe Biden will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, you bet $100 on that option and he’s re-elected in 2024, the sportsbook would give you back $750 – your initial bet of $100 is returned and you are rewarded with $650 in profit.
Check out our Odds Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
What Are Presidential Futures?
Futures bets are made on events that have yet to take place. You make a bet like this far off in advance of the event, in this case, the person to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
To make a bet like this, you would first use the info contained in this article to handicap your wager along with keeping up with the daily news cycle of U.S. politics.
Once you’ve made your decision on which person you think has the chops to win the 2024 election, you’re ready to start betting on U.S. political futures.