As one has come to expect from the uber-dramatic soap opera that is the current United States political landscape, storylines on both sides of the aisle have evolved since our last update back in late June.
The plot twists have even impacted U.S. presidential odds ahead of the 2024 election with former president Donald Trump feeling the footsteps from within his own party, while President Joe Biden finally enjoyed some policy wins ahead of the 2022 midterm elections this November.
2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds: Who Is Favored?
Contrary to what many may assume, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was gaining ground on Donald Trump as the 2024 U.S. presidential odds favorite before the feds raided Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in late August.
At +275, courtesy of online sportsbook Bovada">Bovada, Trump maintains a slight lead on DeSantis, who checks in this month at +280. Back in June, DeSantis and President Biden’s odds to win the 2024 presidential election were deadlocked at +450.
As of August 31, Biden’s odds dipped significantly to +600, or 6-to-1, well behind Trump and DeSantis, who are practically a two-horse race, 26 months out from Americans heading back to the presidential polls.
Using our online sports betting calculator, Trump’s odds of +275 to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election represent an implied win probability of 26.67 percent. Furthermore, if you were to wager $100 on a winning Trump bet, you would profit $275.
|Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson||+6600|
Odds as of September 2 at Bovada
2024 U.S. Presidential Odds Movement
While it’s worth highlighting Donald Trump’s odds dip from +240 to +275, Biden’s dip from +450 to +600 and Ron DeSantis soaring from +450 to +280 between early June and late August, the guy we need to keep an eye on is California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Nearly three months ago, his odds to win the 2024 presidential election were 80-to-1. Heading into September, Newsom is now a 14-to-1 odds favorite to win, just behind Vice-President Kamala Harris, whose odds did not move off 12-to-1 since our last update.
Branded a political pariah by many in the Republican Party for chairing the January 6 committee’s investigation, Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney lost in the August primaries to a Trump-backed candidate. Despite this, Cheney’s political ambitions may just be starting and whispers of a potential 2024 presidential run have been heard.
Bovada bookmakers picked up on the gossip and added Cheney to their oddsboard at 80-to-1 as she would endure a long, arduous journey to the White House should she toss her hat into the ring.
2024 U.S. Presidential Odds: Three Things To Watch
The Department of Justice believes Donald Trump may have committed three crimes by removing and storing politically sensitive and confidential files at Mar-a-Lago: potential Espionage Act violations, obstruction and wrongful destruction of documents.
This from the guy who has already been impeached twice and who, for really the first time, is running out of slack provided by swaths of Republican voters and vested Republican politicians up on Capitol Hill.
With DeSantis breathing down his neck as a potential front-runner to win in 2024, it would be a waste of your bankroll to back Trump at this juncture while at +275. There is no value to wager on this risky asset, one who has yet to officially announce he’s running for president again.
Biden’s Policy Impact
The first six months of 2022 were political poison for President Joe Biden with Russia’s war with Ukraine, record-high gas prices, rising inflation and an infant formula shortage cratered his approval rating and any semblance that the Democratic Party had a chance to hold the House and Senate this November.
Then, in a somewhat shocking plot twist, Biden earned back-to-back policy wins via the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and the Student Loan Forgiveness Plan.
While the $740-billion Inflation Reduction Act was a far cry from his original economic policy plan that carried a price tag of trillions of dollars, Biden will win points with environmentalists and the technology sector as he hopes investment in new green energy, namely electric vehicles, carries some momentum into the fall for his party.
As for the $10,000 student loan debt cancellations (and $20,000 if you received a Pell Grant), most critics believe this was a shallow ploy to buy votes among his constituents because it’s pretty easy to poke holes in this policy. This is a fair criticism, but at the end of the day, Biden’s odds to win the 2024 election fell since June. So, any hope of an odds boost via these policy wins currently looks like a lost cause.
As I often like to say, thanks to the 2016 presidential election polling trends vs the final outcome, political data surveys should be taken with a boulder-sized grain of salt moving forward because *shrug emoji*, it’s far from a perfect science.
A recent Quinnipiac poll learned that more than two-thirds of Americans believe democracy is in danger of collapse. So, checking my notes, yes, that is probably NOT good for President Biden’s chances of re-election. Yet, in the same breath, it probably isn’t great for Trump’s re-election odds either. Also noteworthy, that metric is up from 58 percent in January.
President Biden’s approval rating is both up and down depending on your preferred outlet (which also makes this exercise futile in many regards):
Approval ratings might not matter when a July CNN poll revealed that 75 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters want a nominee other than Biden come 2024.
How To Read 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds
Welcome to betting on U.S. politics. Let’s say that you want to bet on the result of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The first thing you need to do is sign up at an online sportsbook of your choice that offers 2024 U.S. presidential odds.
After the sign-up process and depositing some money to bet with, you have determined you want to bet on a potential candidate. The betting odds should be listed similar to this:
The odds listed above are called American odds. The plus sign (+) indicates how much you would win if you were to bet $100 on that option. The candidate with the lowest number, in this case Kamala Harris, is considered the betting favorite for this market.
Now, if you believe that Joe Biden will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, you bet $100 on that option and he’s re-elected in 2024, the sportsbook would give you back $750 – your initial bet of $100 is returned and you are rewarded with $650 in profit.
Check out our Odds Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
What Are Presidential Futures?
Futures bets are made on events that have yet to take place. You make a bet like this far off in advance of the event, in this case the person to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
To make a bet like this, you would first use the info contained in this article to handicap your wager along with keeping up with the daily news cycle of U.S. politics.
Once you’ve made your decision on which person you think has the chops to win the 2024 election, you’re ready to start betting on U.S. political futures.